Weekend football predictions: Pro sports bettors pick NFL playoff games

A message of hope for Denver Broncos fans and a shot at the New England Patriots.

That’s what former Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Nick Foles posted on X after the Patriots advanced to the AFC title game against a Broncos team reeling from the loss of starting quarterback Bo Nix to a season-ending injury.

“A positive note going into the game versus the Patriots is that they struggle against backup QBs in championship-type games,” wrote Foles (@NickFoles).

Foles famously replaced injured Eagles starting quarterback Carson Wentz late in the 2017 season en route to earning Super Bowl MVP honors after leading Philadelphia to its first Super Bowl win in a 41-33 upset of the Patriots.

Former Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Jarrett Stidham will start in place of Nix in Sunday’s game at Denver, and that’s the main reason the Broncos are 4½-point home underdogs.

Professional sports bettor Jeff Whitelaw thinks oddsmakers over-adjusted the line and bet on Denver +6, though he still recommends a play at +4½.

“They basically made an 8-point adjustment between Nix and Stidham, and I don’t believe that’s justified. I made New England like 3, 3½,” he said. “It’s a tough game. Denver has the better defense. New England has a way better offense, especially now with an unproven quarterback. But it’s been done before.

“Sean Payton’s an excellent coach. I think it will be a close game.”

Home underdogs of four points or more in the NFL playoffs are 10-0 against the spread with six outright wins over the past 50 years, according to Sports Odds History.

CBS Sportsline handicapper Bruce Marshall and “Dr. Alan” Dumond, 3-1 ATS on his postseason plays in the Review-Journal, also made the Broncos their best bet of the conference championships.

“The prevailing narrative coming into this game is that the Broncos have no chance to win this game due to quarterback Bo Nix being out with an injury,” Dumond said. “However, the Broncos have a strong home-field advantage, and their defense led the NFL with 68 sacks, was No. 2 in fewest total yards and was No. 3 in fewest points allowed.”

Marshall noted that Payton’s backups have always performed well dating to his days with the New Orleans Saints, and he’s also banking on Denver’s defense to disrupt Patriots second-year quarterback Drake Maye.

“Denver’s NFL-best pass rush is likely to get Maye off script and who, for all his mobility, displayed a surprising lack of pocket presence last week vs. Houston,” Marshall said. “A mistake-free game from Stidham, and Vance Joseph’s defense producing a key takeaway or two, would be a recipe for a Denver upset.”

Pro sports bettor Scott Pritchard made the Broncos-Patriots over 42½ his best bet.

“Home team controls the tempo, and the fact is there were (798) total yards racked up in Denver last week,” said Pritchard (Pritchardspicks.com).

Here is a best bet on the NFC title game:

SEAHAWKS (-2½) over Rams

Whitelaw said he likes the Seahawks more than he likes the Broncos.

“I took Denver plus the points because of the number. It was high,” he said. “But Seattle, I actually like on a lot of fundamentals. It’s the Rams’ third consecutive road game. The Rams played a very physical game last week, and now they’ve got to travel again.

“Seattle was at home and didn’t get tested. They got to relax a little bit. And I like to bet the better defensive team, and Seattle is clearly the better defensive team.”

Pro bettor Cris Zeniuk also likes the Seahawks ATS, but prefers to bet Seattle on the money line (-140).

“The model likes Seattle by more than a field goal, so lots of value,” he said. “The Rams have played Seattle tough, but they seem to be running on fumes a bit, as they have had one of the worst defenses over the last quarter of the season, and Matthew Stafford has not been quite as sharp as he started.

“Seattle is well rounded. The only obstacle is going to be their own mistakes, which I feel they will avoid in front of home cooking.”

Last week: 5-3

Season: 86-76-3

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.