Bengals biggest long shots to reach Super Bowl since ‘99 Rams
The movie “American Underdog,” in theaters now, is about former NFL quarterback Kurt Warner’s meteoric rise from stocking shelves at a grocery store to leading the St. Louis Rams to a win in Super Bowl XXXIV.
The 1999 Rams, known as “The Greatest Show on Turf,” were 150-1 long shots in the preseason to win the Super Bowl. MGM Resorts director of trading Jeff Stoneback said their odds soared as high as 300-1 after starting QB Trent Green suffered a season-ending knee injury.
It’s unlikely a movie will be made about the 2021 Bengals. But Cincinnati is the biggest long shot to make the Super Bowl since the 1999 Rams.
After finishing 2-14 in 2019 and 4-11-1 in 2020, the Bengals entered the 2021 season tied for the longest shots on the board — at 100-1 with the Lions, Jets and Texans — to win Super Bowl LVI.
Their odds shot up as high as 300-1 at Circa Sports to win it all and 200-1 at the Westgate SuperBook, which took 17 tickets at that price, including a $200 wager in August to win $40,000.
“There was some interest in them, but we kind of figured it was more fans than anything. There weren’t a lot of believers,” SuperBook vice president Jay Kornegay said. “It’s still kind of hard to believe the Bengals are in the Super Bowl.”
BetMGM didn’t have many takers on the Bengals at 200-1, either. But the book took a $3,500 wager to win $525,000 on Cincinnati at 150-1 odds in September. It also took a $30,000 bet to win $600,000 at 20-1 odds in January.
Caesars Sportsbook took a $13,440 wager to win $470,400 on the Bengals at 35-1. According to Caesars vice president of trading Craig Mucklow, the bettor said he “needed something to believe in.”
Books will win on Bengals
Despite the long odds on Cincinnati, Las Vegas sportsbooks will win if the Bengals upset the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday as 4½-point underdogs and +175 on the money line.
“That shows the liquidity and popularity of betting Super Bowl futures,” Stoneback said.
BetMGM and Caesars will both win on the Rams as well.
“Both of them are excellent,” Stoneback said. “As long as we got the Packers, Buccaneers and Cowboys out, we were in good shape.”
The SuperBook is rooting for the Bengals.
“As far as the futures book, we definitely need the Bengals to win the game because we don’t have any liability on the Bengals, even though they were long shots before the season started,” Kornegay said. “We have some liability attached to the Rams, though they never got higher than 20-1. The Rams were the wiseguy pick all season long.
“They added veteran pieces and were all-in this season and a lot of sharper players were betting them.”
Other long shots
The Super Bowl almost featured a matchup of two teams that were 200-1 long shots. The 49ers were 200-1 to win it all early in the season before advancing to the NFC title game, where they squandered a 17-7 fourth-quarter lead in a 20-17 loss to LA.
That would’ve been reminiscent of the 1991 World Series between the Minnesota Twins and Atlanta Braves. Stoneback said both teams were 300-1 long shots to win it all after each finished in last place in their division in 1990.
Since then, the biggest preseason title long shot in any of the four major North American pro sports leagues to reach the championship final was the Golden Knights, who were 500-1 at the SuperBook to win the Stanley Cup in their inaugural 2017-18 season.
The Knights lost the Stanley Cup Final in five games to the Washington Capitals.
“The Knights were as high as 500-1 to win the Stanley Cup, 250-1 to win the Western Conference and 100-1 to win the division. Two out of three of those cashed,” Kornegay said. “It was an incredible season and we were rooting for them despite us and many other operators in Vegas getting clobbered.”
One of the biggest long shots in sports history to win a title, Leicester City cashed at odds as high as 5,000-1 in England and 2,500-1 in Las Vegas in 2016 when it won the English Premier League.
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.
