Circa still faces $7.5M overlay in NFL handicapping contests

The Circa Survivor contest is still on track to shatter last year’s record prize pool of $14.2 million and Circa Million VII is on pace for a record number of contestants as well.

But less than two weeks before the Sept. 6 entry deadline, Circa Sports is on the hook for a $7.5 million overlay, or the amount of money the sportsbook must add to the prize pool in addition to the entry fees, which are $1,000 each.

There were 10,223 entries Monday morning in Survivor, which needs 15,000 entries to meet its $15 million in guaranteed prize money.

Sign-ups were recently 40 percent ahead of last year’s pace for a projected prize pool of $20 million. But the pool is now expected to fall just shy of that mark, according to Mike Palm, vice president of operations for Circa, D Las Vegas and Golden Gate.

“Here’s where it’s going to be tough to keep pacing around that 40 percent because this is where the numbers really started picking up last year as well,” he said. “The same time last year we had 7,400 (entries), so we’re up a little over 2,800, which represents 38 percent. If you extrapolate that out, that’s about $19.6 million for the prize pool.”

In Survivor, contestants pick one straight-up NFL winner each week, with no point spread involved, but can use each team only once. The contest is comprised of 20 legs (NFL Weeks 1 through 18, plus Thanksgiving/Black Friday and Christmas).

Circa has paid about $4 million the past four years to cover contest overlays, including $183,000 last year to meet the $6 million guarantee in the Million.

That contest, in which entrants make five weekly NFL picks against the spread, is slightly ahead of last year’s pace with 3,235 entries. It needs 6,000 entries to meet the guarantee.

“If you extrapolate it out, we come in at 5,970. We’re going to be real close,” Palm said. “I think we’re going to come in right at that $6 million.”

Ain’t it Grandissimo

Circa’s new $100,000-entry Grandissimo contest, its ultra-high-roller version of Survivor, already has surpassed the $1.5 million guarantee with 22 entries and more on the way.

“There’s a couple more that have wired their money to the cage but haven’t gotten here to sign up yet,” Palm said. “I would imagine it comes in somewhere around 35 (entries), maybe we get 40.”

While some Grandissimo entries have been split by groups of friends, others have been bought by individuals.

“I’m just surprised at the number of people we didn’t know before that hadn’t been customers of Circa in any way that have come out to participate in Grandissimo,” Palm said. “Last week, a guy walked in on Tuesday and did the Grandissimo and 10 Survivor (entries).

“He’s a businessman in Miami who was on vacation in Utah. He saw something on the internet about the contest, caught a plane to Vegas, came and signed up and went back to vacation. It’s really amazing.”

SuperContests

The Westgate SuperBook’s new $500-entry SuperContest College had 745 entries Monday morning for a prize pool of $372,500. The registration deadline is 3 p.m. Friday and Week 1 picks must be submitted by 5 p.m. Friday for the 14-week contest, in which entrants make seven weekly college football picks ATS.

“We are hoping for a late push this week to get us in around 900 or so entries in the college contest,” Westgate vice president of race and sports John Murray said.

There are 460 entries in the $1,500-entry SuperContest (five weekly NFL picks ATS) for a prize pool of $690,000, and 36 entries in the $5,000-entry winner-take-all SuperContest Gold (five weekly NFL picks ATS) for a prize pool of $180,000.

There are 56 entries in the $5,000-entry SuperContest Survivor (one straight-up weekly NFL pick, no point spread, can use each team only once, in 18-week regular season) for prize pool of $280,000.

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.