College football best bets: Oregon should bounce back vs. Cal

The Oregon Ducks lost quarterback Justin Herbert and all five starting offensive linemen from last year’s team.

That apparently was just a fun twist for new offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead. The Ducks have scored between 35 and 43 points in all four of their games. Oregon ranks in the top 10 in success rate and explosiveness rate in passing and rushing.

California’s defense lost three NFL draft picks and has followed a more logical path, dropping to No. 122 in passing success rate allowed.

A healthy QB Chase Garbers was supposed to be the answer for the Bears offense, but Cal is 115th in sack rate allowed. Garbers is averaging just 5.7 yards per pass attempt.

Oregon’s defense is mediocre. But it does a great job of preventing big plays, which Cal isn’t good at creating anyway.

Expect Ducks QB Tyler Shough and Oregon’s three-headed rushing attack of Shough, CJ Verdell and Travis Dye to do more than enough against an average Cal defense to cover as nine-point favorites.

Four more plays (home team in CAPS):

Oklahoma State (-1½) over TEXAS CHRISTIAN: The Cowboys suffered one of the unluckiest losses of the season in an overtime game against Texas, got squashed by Oklahoma and beat everyone else, including Iowa State, Kansas State and West Virginia. All three of those teams beat the Horned Frogs. TCU scored six points against West Virginia and 14 each against Oklahoma and Kansas State. The Cowboys have a comparable defense plus Tylan Wallace, one of the Big 12’s best receivers.

Florida Atlantic (+2½) over GEORGIA SOUTHERN: The most dominant side of the ball in this game is the Owls defense. It ranks second in points per possession, first in passing explosiveness rate and seventh in rushing success rate. That last stat is particularly important when facing Georgia Southern, which runs the ball on 75.8 percent of its offensive snaps. The Eagles also run the slowest offensive tempo in the country by a wide margin, averaging 32.9 seconds between snaps. Georgia Southern’s top two running backs, J.D. King (ACL) and Wesley Kennedy III (indefinite suspension), are out. The Owls are 5-1, with their lone loss a 20-9 setback at Marshall.

AKRON (-2½) over Bowling Green: On a per-possession basis, these are the worst two defenses in college football. Bowling Green gives up 3.7 points per possession and Akron allows 4.1. Both teams have managed to create some explosive runs. But Bowling Green has completed 40.8 percent of its passes for one touchdown and six interceptions compared to 59.6 percent, three TDs and five picks for Akron. Plus, the Zips have the best running back on the field in Teon Dollard and are playing at home.

Georgia Tech (+6½) over NORTH CAROLINA STATE: Georgia Tech is 3-5, but that includes losses to Clemson, Notre Dame and Central Florida. The Yellow Jackets have covered in back-to-back games and are coming off of a three-week break. Coach Geoff Collins has his team eager to prove the program is moving in the right direction. If not for a blocked field goal against Liberty, N.C. State would be 1-4 in its last five games. Georgia Tech is 12th in rushing explosiveness rate and N.C. State is 87th in rushing explosiveness rate allowed.

Last week: 3-2

Season: 27-31

Christopher Smith of AL.com and BetOnline is providing college football analysis for the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Follow @cfblocksmith on Twitter.