Heavy favorites did bettors no good

Back home in New Hampshire, my buddy’s father, “Big Pete,” was a bookie. After our group of friends graduated from high school, he was gracious enough to take our action and, most of the time, our money.

When I went off to college at the University of Central Florida, I continued to call in bets to “Big Pete.” One time, when making one of those calls, a woman answered and I said, “Is Big Pete there?” Without missing a beat, the woman replied, “No, but this is Little Ernie. Are you OK, Todd?”

It was my mother. Somehow, in the haze of a 1980s spring break in Daytona Beach, Fla., I accidentally dialed my home number instead of Big Pete’s.

It was just as well, as my sweet mom always would give me money when she could and Big Pete never sent any my way. But that’s only because I almost always played big favorites.

I’ve made some strides since then — picking two outright upsets Saturday with Virginia, a 6-point underdog that beat Miami 30-13, and Arkansas, a 3½-point ’dog that whipped No. 8 Mississippi 30-0 — but was reminded again that it’s not healthy to eat a lot of chalk.

Like many other bettors, I couldn’t resist taking Ohio State and Baylor, two big favorites that were supposed to pour it on in pursuit of a College Football Playoff berth. Neither of them delivered.

The No. 7 Buckeyes barely scored 35 points, let alone cover the 35-point spread in a 42-27 comeback win over Indiana. The No. 6 Bears, who closed as 34-point favorites at some Las Vegas sports books, went ahead 42-14 early in the fourth quarter but fell short of the number in a 49-28 rain-soaked win over Oklahoma State.

Wynn sports book director John Avello said money poured in on both teams, with the Baylor spread ballooning from 24 to 34 and Ohio State’s moving from 30½ to 35.

“They were looking at Ohio State as a team in the playoff hunt that’s going to be running up the score, but they didn’t get that done today,” Avello said. “That was a good game for us.”

Bettors did cash in on No. 23 Oklahoma, which easily covered the 26-point spread in a 44-7 win over Kansas. They also won on heavily favored Oregon, which barely beat the 33½-point spread in a 44-10 win over Colorado.

“That was not a good game for us,” Avello said.

The Wynn did well taking lopsided action on Michigan, which was bet from a 3½- to a 6½-point favorite in a 23-16 loss to Maryland in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines (5-6), who had won three of four to reach the .500 mark, led 16-9 at the end of the third quarter but were outscored 14-0 in the fourth.

Avello said his book also won with Northwestern, which opened as a 3-point favorite and closed as a 1-point underdog prior to pounding Purdue 38-14. Bettors also lost on Tennessee, bet up from a 2½- to a 5½-point favorite before a 29-21 loss to No. 20 Missouri; and on No. 20 Utah, which went from a 3- to a 4½-point favorite over No. 15 Arizona before getting annihilated 42-10.

The action was pretty balanced on No. 1 Florida State’s 20-17 win over Boston College, a 17-point ’dog that missed a 43-yard field goal with 4:37 left that would have given it the lead. Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston bailed out the Seminoles (11-0) again, leading them on a 66-yard drive to set up Roberto Aguayo’s winning 26-yard field goal with three seconds left.

“This Florida State team is just a last-quarter team. That’s the way they like to play. They like to come from behind,” Avello said. “I do admire the quarterback in the last few seconds. He’s very poised. He knows exactly what he has to do to get it done, and he gets it done.

“People are afraid to lay big numbers with Florida State. There’s almost a pattern to betting Florida State games now. You bet the team they’re playing in the first half and bet Florida State in the second half. You don’t bet the game.”

Overall, Avello said the college football handle was a little light this week.

“This week wasn’t a great matchup week, whereas next week there’s going to be real crucial games,” he said. “This week, there were some teams with some big point spreads. Sometimes big point spreads will deter action because people don’t want to lay big numbers.”

We’ll have to keep that in mind the next time we call “Big Pete.” Or “Little Ernie.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0354. Follow him on Twitter: @tdewey33.