Lovie Smith, Illinois can end bowl drought against California
Unders are a combined 16-8 in California and Illinois games this season.
Anyone who remembers Cal’s 10-7 loss in last season’s Cheez-It Bowl may consider the under. But I think Monday’s Redbox Bowl will feature more points than anticipated.
Cal quarterback Chase Garbers is healthy after suffering a broken collarbone and a concussion. The Bears are 6-0 in games in which he starts and finishes, and the offense has looked much better when he plays. It has been similar for Illinois QB Brandon Peters, who appears to be healthy.
Second-team All-Pac-12 safety Ashtyn Davis, his backup Trey Turner and starting linebacker Tevin Paul are out for Cal.
Illinois, which beat Wisconsin and Michigan State, is looking for its first bowl win since 2011, so I think we’ll see their best effort.
Take the Fighting Illini +6.
Four other plays:
Mississippi State (-4) over Louisville, Monday, Music City Bowl: Bulldogs coach Joe Moorhead might not belong in the Southeastern Conference. The latest snafu: his starting QB Garrett Shrader injured his eye, allegedly in a fight with a teammate.
Mississippi State cornerback Cameron Dantzler is out, which won’t help a defense that ranks 114th in passing plays of 20-plus yards allowed. However, the Bulldogs, who run 60 percent of the time, gain 5.5 yards per carry. The Cardinals are 115th in runs of 20-plus yards allowed.
Louisville also runs 61 percent of the time, but left tackle Mekhi Becton, the second-best run blocker in the Atlantic Coast Conference, according to Pro Football Focus, is sitting out.
Virginia (+14½) over Florida, Monday, Orange Bowl: Miami, Kentucky and South Carolina stayed within 11 points of Florida away from Gainesville. I have Virginia power rated ahead of those teams.
Florida cornerback C.J. Henderson is sitting. The Gators defense should own the line of scrimmage. But so did Clemson in the ACC title game, and QB Bryce Perkins managed 324 yards of offense.
The Cavaliers should limit the Gators’ ground game and get after Kyle Trask.
Cincinnati (-7) over Boston College, Thursday, Birmingham Bowl: The Bearcats would be more highly regarded if not for back-to-back losses to Memphis. The Eagles feature an embarrassing defense and wretched special teams, making a bowl by happenstance thanks to a weak schedule.
Boston College fired Steve Addazio. Rich Gunnell will coach the bowl game before giving way to Jeff Hafley. Cincinnati’s defense (SP+ No. 33) and special teams (SP+ No. 25) are top 25 caliber, and the program has a chance at back-to-back 11-win seasons.
Indiana (+1½) over Tennessee, Thursday, Gator Bowl: This game pits the SP+ No. 14 offense (Indiana) against the SP+ No. 75 offense (Tennessee). Hoosiers QB Peyton Ramsey isn’t as good of a runner as Michael Penix Jr. (injured), but he’s completing nearly 70 percent of his passes.
Indiana, aiming for its first bowl win since 1991, is legitimate. It played Michigan State and Penn State close, got blown out by Ohio State and Michigan and handled everyone else. The Vols recovered from a putrid start to make a bowl game. I think the wrong team is favored.
Last week: 2-2 ATS, Oklahoma State +7 pending
Season: 42-29-3
More Betting: Follow at reviewjournal.com/betting
Christopher Smith of AL.com, NOLA.com and MyBookie is providing college football analysis for the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Follow @cfblocksmith on Twitter.
