NFL betting breakdown — Week 11 | Betting

Chip Chirimbes, Chipwins.com, picksandparlays.net and Vegasopeningline.com

Cowboys (5-4) at Lions (3-5-1)

* Time: 10 a.m. (KVVU-5)

* Line/Total: Cowboys -7, 47

* Analysis: Most bettors will look for the Cowboys to recover from their Sunday night loss to the Vikings. Dallas at 5-4 has the tiebreaker lead over the Eagles in the NFC East, but after opening 3-0 with wins over the Giants, Redskins and Dolphins, they have lost four of six with one of the two wins coming against the Giants. I’m no big fan of Detroit coach Matt Patricia, but I am not impressed with the Cowboys.

* By the numbers: The over is 7-1 in the past eight meetings, and the underdog is 5-1 against the spread in the last five. … The over is 5-2 in the last seven Lions games and 5-1 in the Cowboys’ past six on the road.

* Pick: Lions 27, Cowboys 23

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Saints (7-2) at Buccaneers (3-6)

* Time: 10 a.m.

* Line/Total: Saints -5½, 4½

* Analysis: The Saints lost how many games while QB Drew Brees was sidelined? None (6-0), which means Brees is 1-2 as a starter. Six sacks surrendered to Atlanta last week did in New Orleans. Tampa Bay has lost five straight ATS despite leading the NFL in run defense (77.8 yards) because QB Jameis Winston is a turnover machine. Still, New Orleans’ run game has not been the same this season as in 2018.

* By the numbers: The favorite and home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven games in the series … The Saints are 6-0 ATS after a loss of 14 points.

* Pick: Buccaneers 36, Saints 34

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Falcons (2-7) at Panthers (5-4)

* Time: 10 a.m.

* Line/Total: Panthers -4, 49

* Analysis: The Falcons are 2-7 straight up and not much better ATS (3-6), but they have outgained opponents in seven of nine games. Matt Ryan is back at QB, and that spells trouble for Carolina, as he’s 6-1 in the past seven starts against the Panthers with 15 TD passes and an average of 318 yards. The Panthers’ run defense has allowed 516 yards and 10 rushing TDs in the last three games.

* By the numbers: The Falcons are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. … The Falcons are 8-1 ATS as underdogs coming off a straight-up underdog win.

* Pick: Falcons 23, Panthers 20

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Jaguars (4-5) at Colts (5-4)

* Time: 10 a.m.

* Line/Total: Colts -2½, 43

* Analysis: It’s obvious the Colts are a different team with Jacoby Brissett running the show, and he’s ready to go. But will he be as effective off a sprained MCL and retain his quickness and speed? The line will be adjusted accordingly, and getting an edge is rare.

* By the numbers: Jacksonville is 7-0-1 ATS in the last eight meetings, including 3-0-1 at Indianapolis. … The under is 7-1 in the last eight meetings at Indianapolis, and the Colts are 0-6-1 ATS against a team with a losing record.

* Pick: Colts 23, Jaguars 20

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Broncos (3-6) at Vikings (7-3)

* Time: 10 a.m.

* Line/Total: Vikings -10, 40

* Analysis: This is always fun, a double-digit favorite against a team with no quarterback. My apologies to Brandon Allen, who makes his second start leading a Denver team ranked 28th in scoring offense and 27th in total offense. Minnesota RB Dalvin Cook needs 9 yards rushing to reach 1,000.

* By the numbers: The under is 11-1-1 in Broncos games after a straight-up win, and they are 15-7-1 ATS after a bye. … The Vikings are 35-15-1 in their last 51 home games but 3-8 ATS after a straight-up win.

* Pick: Vikings 23, Broncos 15

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Jets (2-7) at Redskins (1-8)

* Time: 10 a.m.

* Line/Total: Redskins -2½, 38½

* Analysis: The Jets’ problems start long before they take the field. Quarterback, running back, ownership, coaches, assistant coaches, malcontent players and injuries to other key personnel carry a cloud of despair that will cause even the euphoria of defeating the Giants to quickly fade. Both clubs have pathetic offenses, with the Jets averaging 231 yards.

* By the numbers: The Jets are 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings and 7-21 ATS in their past 28 November games. … The last six Redskins have gone under.

* Pick: Redskins 33, Jets 16

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Bills (6-3) at Dolphins (2-7)

* Time: 10 a.m.

* Line/Total: Bills -7, 40½

* Analysis: My first thoughts of Buffalo always bring me to QB Josh Allen, an inaccurate thrower and a more effective runner who hasn’t had a completion of at least 30 yards this season. Miami managed 109 yards rushing against the Bills in the first meeting, but still has an NFL-low 3.1 yards per carry.

* By the numbers: The over is 7-2 in the last nine meetings, and the favorite is 4-1 in the past five. … Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last five games, and the Bills are 4-0-1 ATS in their past five road games.

* Pick: Dolphins 20, Bills 19

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Texans (6-3) at Ravens (7-2)

* Time: 10 a.m. (KLAS-8)

* Line/Total: Ravens -4½, 51½

* Analysis: This might be the best game of the week, as it pits the two most exciting quarterbacks in the NFL with Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson. The Ravens have captured the eye of the public with their surge, winning their last five games and going 3-0 ATS in their past three. But this price looks a bit cheap to me, and I can see Watson outshining Jackson.

* By the numbers: The Ravens are 1-6 ATS in their last six home games. … The under is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Baltimore and 11-4 after a Texans ATS win.

* Pick: Texans 33, Ravens 31

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Cardinals (3-6-1) at 49ers (8-1)

* Time: 1:05 p.m.

* Line/Total: 49ers -10, 44

* Analysis: The Cardinals have been a great take (7-3 ATS), and the public seems to be riding them again this week. Arizona kept it close Halloween night in a 28-25 back-door cover. The Cardinals won’t be so lucky this week.

* By the numbers: The underdog is 5-1 in the last six meetings. … Arizona is 4-1 ATS in the last five games at San Francisco. … San Francisco is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 games against the NFC and 2-7 ATS against the NFC West.

* Pick: 49ers 37, Cardinals 26

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Patriots (8-1) at Eagles (5-4)

* Time: 1:25 p.m.

* Line/Total: Patriots -4½, 44½

* Analysis: The Eagles are flying high after wins over the Bills and Bears, and QB Carson Wentz will spoil any redemption plans the Patriots have after their loss to Baltimore. New England’s schedule has been laughable. The Patriots have faced one team (Bills) with a winning record.

* By the numbers: The Patriots are 5-0 ATS after a bye and 15-7 ATS after an ATS loss. … Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS after an ATS win. … The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings, and the underdog is 6-1 in the past seven meetings.

* Pick: Eagles 23, Patriots 20

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Bengals (0-9) at Raiders (5-4)

* Time: 1:25 p.m. (KLAS-8)

* Line/Total: Raiders -11, 48½

* Analysis: Cincinnati is so bad that the Raiders, who have been outscored by their opponents, can be a double-digit favorite. No one wants any part of the Bengals, but it’s time.

* By the numbers: Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. … The Raiders are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games. … Cincinnati is 15-7 ATS against the AFC.

* Pick: Bengals 19, Raiders 17

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Bears (4-5) at Rams (5-4)

* Time: 5:20 p.m. (KSNV-3)

* Line/Total: Rams -6½, 40

* Analysis: The Bears’ offense is producing an average of 262 yards and only 80 yards rushing. QB Mitch Trubisky has just eight TD passes. The Rams need to increase the work load for RB Todd Gurley (104 rushing attempts).

* By the numbers: The Bears are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. The Rams are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games and 8-2 ATS against the NFC.

Pick: Rams 27, Bears 16

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Chiefs (6-4) vs. Chargers (4-6) at Mexico City

* Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday (ESPN)

* Line/Total: Chiefs -4, 52½

* Analysis: Los Angeles has to keep the ball away from the explosive Chiefs offense and will attack Kansas City’s 31st-ranked rushing defense, which is allowing 148 yards per game, with Melvin Gordon. The Chiefs have lost two of their last three.

* By the numbers: The road team is 7-1 in the last eight meetings. … Kansas City is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games against the AFC West.

* Pick: Chargers 30, Chiefs 27

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