NFL betting breakdown: Week 6
NFL BREAKDOWN
Joe D’Amico, Sportsmemo.com
Buccaneers (3-2) at Steelers (1-4)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Buccaneers -9½, 46
Analysis: As the line crept up more and more this week in a matchup of QBs Tom Brady and Kenny Pickett, the appeal of siding with the Buccaneers started to cease. Both teams are point spread poison, with each entering on an 0-3 ATS skid. On paper, Tampa Bay is better on both sides of the ball, but I just can’t lay almost double digits with the Bucs on the road. With both offenses struggling a bit, I can see this game going under the total.
By the numbers: The under is 4-1 in Tampa Bay’s last five games. … The under is 5-1 in Pittsburgh’s last six home games.
Pick: Buccaneers 24, Steelers 16
Bengals (2-3) at Saints (2-3)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Bengals -2½, 43
Analysis: New Orleans has started to show signs of life on offense. But until the Saints, who allow 25.6 points per game, can show me they can stop somebody, they are a go-against. The Bengals have covered three in a row while holding opponents to 17.8 points per game and snagging nine takeaways. New Orleans has a league-worst 13 giveaways.
By the numbers: Cincinnati is riding a 7-1 cover run on the road. … The Bengals are on an 11-2 ATS streak overall.
Pick: Bengals 24, Saints 21
Jaguars (2-3) at Colts (2-2-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Colts -1½, 41
Analysis: A bit of luster has come off the Jaguars’ shine after starting the season 2-1. But they have certainly been the Achilles’ heel for Indianapolis, going 13-1-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings. This includes a 24-0 spanking in mid-September. The Colts’ offense is nonexistent. Facing the Jaguars’ top-10 defense, I doubt Indy has what it takes to finally cover a game in this division rivalry.
By the numbers: The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. … Jacksonville is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings at Indianapolis.
Pick: Jaguars 20, Colts 13
Patriots (2-3) at Browns (2-3)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Browns -2½, 43½
Analysis: The Browns own the NFL’s top rushing attack behind Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, but I still don’t get why they are favorites here. I know Patriots QB Mac Jones is questionable, but it really doesn’t matter who is under center when you’re lining up across from the Cleveland defense, which allows 25.0 ppg. The Patriots also have a pretty solid running attack led by Centennial product Rhamondre Stevenson and will be able to control the tempo and the clock.
By the numbers: New England is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. … Cleveland is on a 2-6 spread slide at home.
Pick: Patriots 21, Browns 20
Jets (3-2) at Packers (3-2)
Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5
Line/total: Packers -7½, 45
Analysis: The Jets have been one of the most pleasant surprises this season. They have won and covered three of their last four games, punctuated by last week’s 40-17 rout of the Dolphins. QB Zach Wilson is back, and RB Breece Hall is improving. However, if the Packers don’t turn their season around right now, they are in serious trouble. Look for them to be in serious bounce-back mode here after last week’s 27-22 loss to the Giants. One person you really don’t want to face is an angry Aaron Rodgers. On the flip side, the Packers possess the league’s No. 2-ranked pass defense, and Wilson might be in for a long day here.
By the numbers: Green Bay is on a 16-7 cover streak following an ATS loss. … The Packers are 12-3 ATS following a straight-up loss.
Pick: Packers 31, Jets 23
Ravens (3-2) at Giants (4-1)
Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8
Line/total: Ravens -6, 45½
Analysis: If anyone can help the Giants take down the Ravens, it’s Wink Martindale. The New York defensive coordinator held the same position with Baltimore for a decade. The combination of Saquon Barkley leading the Giants’ No. 2 rushing attack and New York’s No. 9 defense will keep this game a lot closer than the point spread.
By the numbers: The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. … The Giants are 4-1 ATS this season.
Pick: Ravens 23, Giants 20
Vikings (4-1) at Dolphins (3-2)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Vikings -3, 45½
Analysis: The Vikings are the worst 4-1 team in the league. There is talent on this team, but it just can’t string together consistent solid performances. Not only that, but Minnesota is crushing bettors, failing to cover four consecutive contests. Miami has some well-documented QB issues. But even if it is Skylar Thompson at the helm, he has had a week to prepare. And you can bet that he and his stellar arsenal of wideouts will exploit the very vulnerable Vikings pass defense. There is no way I can, in good conscience, lay points with Minnesota on the road.
By the numbers: The Vikings are on a 1-5 ATS skid on the road. … The Dolphins are 16-5 ATS at home.
Pick: Vikings 24, Dolphins 23
49ers (3-2) at Falcons (2-3)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: 49ers -4½, 44½
Analysis: Under coach Kyle Shanahan,the Niners have stayed on the East Coast when they have back-to-back road games there. They’ve won seven of the last eight games following that strategy. The Falcons are 5-0 ATS this season, but the clock strikes midnight Sunday for Atlanta. This is a very difficult matchup for the Falcons, who rank 30th in the league in passing (166.8 yards per game) and will be without RB Cordarrelle Patterson against the NFL’s top-ranked defense. The 49ers lead the league in scoring defense (12.2 ppga) and total defense (249.2 ypga). San Francisco QB Jimmy Garoppolo gets to face Atlanta’s 29th-ranked pass defense. The Niners also feature the league’s No. 8 rushing attack and should be able to move the chains and score at will here.
By the numbers: The Falcons are 2-5 ATS at home and and 1-4-1 ATS vs. teams with a winning record. … San Francisco is on a 5-2 ATS run on the road and an 8-1 cover streak against the NFC.
Pick: Niners 31, Falcons 13
Panthers (1-4) at Rams (2-3)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/total: Rams -10, 41½
Analysis: Both teams have lost and failed to cover their last two games. The Panthers have lost 11 of their last 12 games overall. But I don’t know if we have seen a team suffering from a worse Super Bowl hangover than the Rams. They rank last in the league in rushing, 28th in scoring, and have turned the ball over 12 times. I just can’t lay double digits with Los Angeles, even if it is against lowly Carolina.
By the numbers: The Rams are on a 6-1 under run. … The Panthers are on a 5-2 under uptick against the NFC.
Pick: Rams 24, Panthers 16
Cardinals (2-3) at Seahawks (2-3)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/total: Cardinals -2½, 50½
Analysis: The NFC West is usually a very competitive division, but it only possesses one team with a winning record so far in the 49ers (3-2). The rest of the division is sitting at 2-3. Something has to give here. Despite the fact that Seattle’s defense is among the worst in the league, the Seahawks possess the more well-balanced offense.
By the numbers: Arizona is on an 0-4 ATS skid against the NFC West. … The Cardinals are on a 2-5 spread slide following a cover.
Pick: Seahawks 27, Cardinals 24
Bills (4-1) at Chiefs (4-1)
Time: 1:25 p.m., KLAS-8
Line/total: Bills -2½, 54
Analysis: Many believe that revenge is a big factor in this game for Buffalo, which suffered an overtime playoff loss at Kansas City in January after it took the lead with 13 seconds left. Others feel that the Chiefs have a psychological edge in this one because of that victory. But the Bills spanked Kansas City in Arrowhead Stadium in the regular season a few months before losing that playoff matchup. I believe QBs Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes will both play well. But the big difference will be Buffalo’s superior defense, while Kansas City‘s pass defense has been very vulnerable. I’m not crazy about laying points on the road at Arrowhead. But with the line less than a field goal, I have to side with the Bills.
By the numbers: Kansas City is 0-4 ATS against the AFC. … The Chiefs are on a 1-4 spread skid following a straight-up win.
Pick: Bills 31, Chiefs 28
Cowboys (4-1) at Eagles (5-0)
Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3
Line/total: Eagles -6½, 42
Analysis: Dallas has held each of its five opponents to 19 points or fewer, yielding an average of only 14.4 points per game. The Cowboys are equally strong against the run and pass, and they’ve won and covered the last three meetings in this division rivalry. The Eagles have a very good offense, but the Dallas defense can certainly slow them down. The last two weeks, Jacksonville and Arizona gave Philadelphia all it can handle. And I don’t think either of those teams are on the Cowboys’ level. This is way too many points to give a Dallas team that can win this game outright.
By the numbers: Dallas is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings overall and 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings at Philadelphia. … The Cowboys are also riding cover streaks of 10-1 on the road, 22-7 vs. the NFC East and 20-7 overall.
Pick: Cowboys 21, Eagles 20
Broncos (2-3) at Chargers (3-2)
Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN
Line/total: Chargers -4½, 45½
Analysis: Los Angeles has won two straight games and is 4-1 ATS. Denver has lost two straight and is 1-4 ATS. The Broncos are sputtering on offense, ranking No. 31 in the NFL in scoring with a paltry 15.0 ppg. No matter how good Denver’s No. 4 defense is, the Broncos can’t keep pace with the Chargers on the scoreboard. The 1-2 punch of Los Angeles QB Justin Herbert and RB Austin Ekeler will be enough to put the Broncos on the ropes and eventually knock them out.
By the numbers: The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. … Denver is on spread slides of 1-5-1 on Monday night, 1-7 vs. the AFC and 0-5 on the road.
Pick: Chargers 24, Broncos 17
