NFL forecast: Bills will beat Vikings with or without Allen
On the last play of the NFC divisional playoff game between the Vikings and Saints on Jan. 14, 2018, Case Keenum threw a 61-yard touchdown pass to Stefon Diggs that became known as the Minneapolis Miracle.
On Sunday, Keenum and Diggs might join forces again for the Buffalo Bills against the Vikings in one of the week’s most compelling matchups.
Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen is questionable for the game after suffering an elbow injury in last week’s 20-17 loss to the New York Jets. If he doesn’t play, Keenum will replace him.
It won’t take a miracle for the Bills to beat the Vikings behind Keenum, who went 2-0 as a starter last season for the Browns.
Buffalo, down to a 3-point home favorite after the line opened at 7½, has the far superior defense. The Bills lead the NFL in scoring defense, allowing 14.8 points per game, and are fourth in total defense, allowing 299.6 yards per game. The Vikings rank 26th in total defense (368.1 ypg).
Buffalo (6-2), third in the league in scoring (27.5 ppg), should bounce back from its loss to the Jets and beat Minnesota with or without Allen.
The Vikings are 7-1 straight-up but only 3-4-1 ATS. They’re 0-4 ATS in their last four games as underdogs.
Take the Super Bowl favorites laying only a field goal at home.
Four more plays (home team in CAPS):
Browns (+3½) over DOLPHINS: Cleveland has been off since Oct. 31, when it crushed Cincinnati 32-13 on “Monday Night Football” before its bye week. Miami is on an 1-5 ATS slide and allowed 252 rushing yards in last week’s 35-32 win over Chicago. The Browns have the NFL’s No. 3 rushing attack (164.6 ypg) behind running back Nick Chubb (841 rushing yards, 10 TDs). Cleveland’s pass rush should pressure Tua Tagovailoa, and Browns cornerback Denzel Ward returns from a concussion to help cover the Dolphins’ dangerous receivers.
TITANS (-2½) over Broncos: Tennessee has won five of six games while going 6-0 ATS and threatened to upset the Chiefs last week at Arrowhead Stadium in a 20-17 overtime loss as 14-point underdogs. Denver has been off since Oct. 30, when it beat Jacksonville 21-17 in London to snap a four-game losing streak. But I’m still not sold on the Broncos. The Titans have a huge coaching edge in Mike Vrabel over Nathaniel Hackett, and Tennessee should be able to control the ball with running back Derrick Henry against a Denver squad that ranks 21st in rushing defense (122.6 ypga).
RAMS (-3) over Cardinals: Both starting quarterbacks are questionable, with Los Angeles’ Matthew Stafford in concussion protocol and Arizona’s Kyler Murray dealing with a hamstring injury, and both teams are struggling. But the Rams have the better defense, and coach Sean McVay has owned the Cardinals, winning 11 of the last 12 meetings while going 10-2 ATS. Los Angeles beat Arizona 20-12 on Sept. 25.
Commanders (+11) over EAGLES: Washington has won three of its last four games while going 3-0-1 ATS. The Commanders’ last five games have been decided by an average of three points, and they’re getting double digits as a divisional underdog. Pass rusher Chase Young might make his season debut for Washington, while rookie defensive tackle Jordan Davis will miss his second straight game for Philadelphia.
Last week: 3-1-1
Season: 26-16-3
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.
