NFL Week 5 betting breakdown: Predictions for every game

NFL BETTING BREAKDOWN

Dana Lane, @DanaLaneSports, PickDawgz.com

Packers (2-2) at Raiders (1-3)

Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, KTNV-13, ESPN

Line/total: Raiders -2, 44½

Analysis: Green Bay comes into town with a few extra days off after losing to Detroit at home on “Thursday Night Football.” Listening to news conferences this week, you can tell that all may not be smooth in Las Vegas and players are looking for answers from coach Josh McDaniels, who has been criticized publicly for his decisions during the team’s 1-3 start. I can’t put my cash behind a team that clearly lacks an identity. Green Bay has beaten the Raiders eight straight times since 1990. Jordan Love has completed nine passes for 30 yards or more after Green Bay had just 16 of those plays in 2022. Take Green Bay outright.

Pick: Packers 23, Raiders 20

Jaguars (2-2) vs. Bills (3-1), at London

Time: 6:30 a.m., NFLN

Line/total: Bills -5½, 48

Analysis: The Jaguars are the first team to play two consecutive weeks in their home away from home in London after beating Atlanta 23-7 there last week. The Bills have won their last three games by an average of 30 points. There’s no reason to go against that trend here, although the number does give me pause.

Pick: Bills 27, Jaguars 20

Texans (2-2) at Falcons (2-2)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Falcons -1½, 41½

Analysis: The Texans will be looking for their first three-game winning streak since 2018 against the Falcons. Atlanta quarterback Desmond Ridder’s starting job has to be hanging by a thread after he threw two interceptions in last week’s loss to the Jaguars, as well as a couple of other throws that could have resulted in turnovers. A lack of a normal travel routine for the Falcons could show up deep into the game.

Pick: Texans 24, Falcons 21

Panthers (0-4) at Lions (3-1)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Lions -9½, 44½

Analysis: The Panthers are in the middle of the process of learning how to win under rookie quarterback Bryce Young and first-year coach Frank Reich. Keeping Young upright has been a massive issue after he was sacked 11 times in three games. They face a Lions team that has produced 12 sacks in its last two games.

Pick: Lions 28, Panthers 23

Titans (2-2) at Colts (2-2)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Titans -2½, 43

Analysis: You don’t need to be a seasoned handicapper to know that the Colts need to play with the lead to take the ball out of the hands of Titans running back Derrick Henry. The two-time NFL rushing leader has torched Indianapolis during Tennessee’s five-game winning streak over the Colts. Indianapolis is likely to have the services of its own former league rushing champ in Jonathan Taylor, who practiced this week for the first time in 10 months.

Pick: Colts 26, Titans 24

Giants (1-3) at Dolphins (3-1)

Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: Dolphins -12½, 47½

Analysis: It’s hard to put money on a Giants team that has yet to score a TD in the first half. New York’s offensive line is in shambles, and the confidence level of Giants quarterback Daniel Jones has to be at the lowest point in his career. I can’t see them matching scores against Miami, which leads the league at 37.5 points per game.

Pick: Dolphins 30, Giants 10

Saints (2-2) at Patriots (1-3)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Patriots -1, 39

Analysis: Both teams rank in the bottom third of the NFL in points per game, with the Patriots at No. 30 with 13.8 ppg and the Saints tied for 25th with 15.5. Bettors can’t rely on New England quarterback Mac Jones, and even though New Orleans quarterback Derek Carr hasn’t been much better, my money is safer with Carr. Until the Saints gave up 26 points in last week’s loss to Tampa Bay, they had held opponents to 20 points or fewer in 11 straight games. A new streak starts Sunday.

Pick: Saints 20, Patriots 17

Ravens (3-1) at Steelers (2-2)

Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Ravens -4½, 38

Analysis: We know the history that Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson has against the Steelers, losing three of five meetings. But it’s hard to watch how inconsistent Pittsburgh has been this season. Steelers coach Mike Tomlin said his team didn’t play hard enough in last week’s 30-6 loss to the Texans. The answer was having his players practice in pads this week. I’m not putting my money behind a team that has some quit in them.

Pick: Ravens 26, Steelers 20

Bengals (1-3) at Cardinals (1-3)

Time: 1:05 p.m.

Line/total: Bengals -3½, 44½

Analysis: Joe Burrow has declared this a must-win game against the Cardinals. But I thought that was the case last week at Tennessee when Burrow threw for a paltry 165 yards in a 27-3 loss. Cincinnati ranks last in the league in yards per game (236) and second-to-last in points per game (12.3), and a whopping 34.1 percent of the Bengals’ drives have been three-and-out. Even with all of Arizona’s injuries, I’m trusting a team that easily handled the Cowboys a few weeks back.

Pick: Cardinals 26, Bengals 23

Eagles (4-0) at Rams (2-2)

Time: 1:05 p.m.

Line/total: Eagles -4, 50½

Analysis: The perception is that, while the Eagles are undefeated, they haven’t looked very impressive after giving up 31 points to the Commanders in last week’s 34-31 overtime win. They rank 27th in the NFL against the pass and face a Rams squad that ranks second in the league in passing (288.8 ypg) and second in the NFC in total offense (392.8 ypg). It looks easy, and you’re getting points with the home team. But I expect Los Angeles defensive coordinator Raheem Morris’ unit to be exploited for its lack of size.

Pick: Eagles 24, Rams 17

Jets (1-3) at Broncos (1-3)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: Broncos -2½, 43½

Analysis: Through all the adversity the Broncos have faced this season, Denver quarterback Russell Wilson is quietly playing well. The nine-time Pro Bowler has thrown for nine TDs in four games, seven shy of what he did all of last season, and he has thrown for 300 yards or more in two games. The 34-year-old had one clunker against Washington while completing 67.4 percent of his throws, his best percentage since 2020. Great effort from Jets quarterback Zach Wilson in last week’s 23-20 loss to the Chiefs, but that effort won’t carry over to Sunday.

Pick: Broncos 21, Jets 17

Chiefs (3-1) at Vikings (1-3)

Time: 1:25 p.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Chiefs -3½, 52½

Analysis: We’ve seen the Chiefs win three straight games after a home loss to the Lions on the NFL’s opening night. But I still think we haven’t seen the best of Kansas City, a thought that’s reflected in their 2-2 record against the spread. The Chiefs’ only impressive win was against Chicago, and is that really all that impressive? Kansas City has turned the ball over at least two times in each of its last three games. But I can’t go against a team and a quarterback who is 74-20 as a starter when there’s a short number.

Pick: Chiefs 26, Vikings 21

Cowboys (3-1) at 49ers (4-0)

Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3

Line/total: 49ers -3½, 45

Analysis: A win here for Dallas would prove that the loss to Arizona was nothing more than a team that has the other’s number for some reason. This will be close throughout, but I can’t get over the near-perfection of Brock Purdy last week when the Niners quarterback was 20 of 21 for 283 yards against the same Cardinals team that handled the Cowboys. Dallas’ defense has forced 11 takeaways this season but is facing a team that makes very few mistakes with the football. The Niners win their third straight in the series.

Pick: 49ers 28, Cowboys 23