NFL Week 6 betting breakdown: Predictions for every game
NFL BETTING BREAKDOWN
Handicapper “Dr. Alan” Dumond
Titans (1-4) at Raiders (1-4)
Time: 1:05 p.m., Fox
Line/total: Raiders -4, 41½
Analysis: This AFC matchup is easily the least attractive game on the NFL card. We have two 1-4 squads facing off with the Raiders coming off a 34-point loss to the Colts. The Titans arrive coming off an unlikely comeback win over the Cardinals. There’s not a lot of positives that you can point to on either sideline. Tennessee was expected to be in rebuild mode, while the Raiders under new coach Pete Carroll and new quarterback Geno Smith were expected to improve. With the Raiders’ defense having given up 106 points in the past three games, and Smith having thrown more interceptions than touchdowns, we can’t lay points with them.
Pick: Raiders 23, Titans 20
Broncos (3-2) vs. Jets (0-5), at London
Time: 6:30 a.m., NFLN
Line/total: Broncos -7, 43½
Analysis: This game sets up as a classic buy low and sell high. The Broncos rallied on the road to defeat the Super Bowl champion Eagles. Denver is due for a letdown and now switches roles as a touchdown favorite over the lowly Jets, the NFL’s lone winless team. New York is coming off a home blowout loss to the Cowboys. The Jets should be the most motivated, desperate team Sunday, and we’ll look for them to stay within the spread and possibly get rookie coach Aaron Glenn his first win.
Pick: Broncos 23, Jets 20
Browns (1-4) at Steelers (3-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Steelers -6, 38½
Analysis: The Browns are in a horrible scheduling spot coming back from London and then traveling to Pittsburgh to play the well-rested Steelers. Under coach Mike Tomlin coming off a bye week, Pittsburgh has won eight straight and covered the past five. Browns rookie quarterback Dillon Gabriel played well last week, but playing on the AFC North division road for the first time in front of a hostile crowd in Pittsburgh will be a different situation. Cleveland’s defense will most likely keep the game respectable.
Pick: Steelers 23, Browns 13
Cardinals (2-3) at Colts (4-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Colts -7, 47
Analysis: This is a matchup of teams going in opposite directions. The Cardinals have lost three straight games, with last week’s embarrassing loss to the Titans a game that Arizona fans and bettors will never forget — for all the wrong reasons. The Colts are rolling. They’re off to their best five-game start since 2019 and the best start in coach Shane Steichen’s three seasons in Indianapolis. The Colts are tied for first place in the AFC South, and quarterback Daniel Jones has revitalized his career. The Cardinals’ mindset is suspect after last week’s debacle.
Pick: Colts 31, Cardinals 20
Rams (3-2) at Ravens (1-4)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Rams -7, 44½
Analysis: Both teams are coming off disappointing losses, albeit for different reasons. The Rams fumbled away an almost sure win in last week’s overtime loss to the 49ers when running back Kyren Williams fumbled at the goal line with a minute left. The Ravens were blown out 44-10 at home by the Texans. The 34-point defeat was the worst home loss in Baltimore coach John Harbaugh’s 18 seasons with the team and matched the worst home loss in franchise history. Baltimore will be without quarterback Lamar Jackson again and is still dealing with a lot of injuries. This looks like an easy Rams cover, but we’ll look for Harbaugh to rally his team before its bye week.
Pick: Rams 24, Ravens 20
Seahawks (3-2) at Jaguars (4-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Jaguars -1, 47½
Analysis: We can call the Jaguars one of this year’s surprise teams, as they’ve equaled their win total from last season under new coach Liam Coen. The Seahawks have been equally impressive, and quarterback Sam Darnold’s fantastic play from last season with the Vikings has continued with Seattle. The oddsmakers have made the line on this game a virtual coin flip. But with the Jaguars being on a short week after an emotional win over the Chiefs on “Monday Night Football,” and the Seahawks coming off a close home loss to the Buccaneers, we’ll side with the road team.
Pick: Seahawks 27, Jaguars 24
Cowboys (2-2-1) at Panthers (2-3)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Cowboys -3, 49
Analysis: Both squads appear much improved from last season, and both are off satisfying wins from last week, when the Cowboys crushed the Jets on the road and the Panthers rallied from 17 points down to defeat the Dolphins. The betting public is all over Dallas, but the Cowboys are an untrustworthy favorite in their second consecutive road game with a sieve-like defense that has given up an average of 30.8 points per game.
Pick: Panthers 30, Cowboys 27
Chargers (3-2) at Dolphins (1-4)
Time: 10 a.m., CBS
Line/total: Chargers -3½, 43½
Analysis: Both teams lost last week, when the Chargers squandered an early 10-0 lead over the Commanders in a 27-10 defeat and the Dolphins blew a 17-point lead in a 27-24 loss to the Panthers. Both squads are dealing with injuries, with Miami missing wideout Tyreek Hill and the Los Angeles offensive line missing multiple starters. The Chargers’ lack of a running game makes them an untrustworthy favorite.
Pick: Dolphins 23, Chargers 20
Patriots (3-2) at Saints (1-4)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Patriots -3½, 46
Analysis: Both squads are coming off wins last week, when the Patriots upset the Bills and the Saints earned their first win for new coach Kellen Moore over the Giants. We’ll side reluctantly with the home team and take the points, as Patriots quarterback Drake Maye finds himself in an unaccustomed role as a road favorite for the first time this season.
Pick: Patriots 27, Saints 24
49ers (4-1) at Buccaneers (4-1)
Time: 1:25 p.m., CBS
Line/total: Buccaneers -3½, 47
Analysis: This is one of the marquee matchups on the card. The 49ers are coming off their dramatic overtime win over the Rams on “Thursday Night Football,” giving them an advantage for extra rest and prep time. The Buccaneers won on a fourth-quarter comeback over the Seahawks led by quarterback Baker Mayfield. 49ers quarterback Mac Jones will start again in place of injured Brock Purdy. This shapes up to be a high-scoring game that could go either way. Given that all four of Tampa Bay’s wins have come by three points or less, taking the points is the play.
Pick: 49ers 28, Bucs 27
Bengals (2-3) at Packers (2-1-1)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/total: Packers -14½, 44
Analysis: These teams have the same number of wins, but are going in different directions. The Bengals, having lost franchise quarterback Joe Burrow, are left grasping at straws, as trading for 40-year-old quarterback Joe Flacco, expected to start this game, shows. The Packers, coming off their bye, will be well rested and well prepared.
Pick: Packers 35, Bengals 14
Lions (4-1) at Chiefs (2-3)
Time: 5:20 p.m., NBC
Line/total: Chiefs - 2½, 53
Analysis: This marquee matchup on “Sunday Night Football” features one squad looking like a Super Bowl contender in the Lions and the other squad struggling. Detroit has ripped off four straight wins. Kansas City has lost three one-score games. It seems as if it would be folly to step in front of the Lions’ freight train, especially when they are taking points in the rare underdog role. The betting public thinks the wrong team is favored, as 80 percent of the tickets are on Detroit. But the oddsmakers have made the Chiefs a small favorite. Thus, we’ll ride with contrarian favorite Kansas City.
Pick: Chiefs 27, Lions 24
Bills (4-1) at Falcons (2-2)
Time: 4:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN
Line/total: Bills -4½, 49½
Analysis: The Falcons enter off their bye week, while the Bills enter off a rare home loss in prime time to the Patriots. This sets up as a bounce-back game for the Bills, who are 22-6 straight up in the regular season after a loss, including 10-2 on the road.
Pick: Bills 31, Falcons 20
Bears (2-2) at Commanders (3-2)
Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ABC
Line/total: Commanders -4½, 49½
Analysis: These teams met last season in what was a “Hail Mary” victory for the Commanders. Chicago is coming off its bye week, while Washington is heading home after an upset win on the road over the Chargers. The Bears are a live underdog, as they’ve had this game circled since the schedule came out after last season’s loss.
Pick: Bears 24, Commanders 21
