Odds, horse-by-horse analysis for Travers Stakes

Michael “The Wizard’’ Kipness has been a professional horse racing handicapper since 1986. He has been at Saratoga Race Course since opening day, handicapping and watching horses train in preparation for the Travers Day 13-race card.

Kipness analyzes the seven-horse field for Saturday’s Travers Stakes, designating each horse as a contender or pretender.

His full card selections and wagering strategies for the Travers, aka the Midsummer Derby, are available at Wizardraceandsports.com. His new YouTube racing show, “Get Tied On,” also can be found on the site.

Post position, horse, jockey, morning. line odds:

1. Forte, Irad Ortiz Jr., 7-5

Trained by Todd Pletcher and owned by Mike Repole, Forte was scratched two days before the Kentucky Derby because of a minor foot injury. It was a huge disappointment for his connections because he was the likely favorite. Despite having to return from a 70-day layoff and stretching out to 1½ miles in the Belmont Stakes, Forte rallied late to nose out Tapit Trice for the place money. In his last start, the Jim Dandy at Saratoga, he was a controversial but game winner by a nose in the slop. Forte showed more speed with blinkers added for the first time in what was a career-best performance. In the Travers, Forte will be the betting favorite. There’s no doubting that this is a top class 3-year-old who knows how to win, evidenced by seven victories in nine starts. Contender.

2. Arcangelo, Castellano, 5-2

Trainer Jena Antonucci has done a splendid job developing this son of Arrogate, who won the 2016 Travers in one of the most spectacular performances by a 3-year-old you will see. Arcangelo attempts to win his fourth straight race, highlighted by an upset victory over Forte in the Belmont Stakes. He broke better that day, showing gears in his victory. Antonucci bypassed the Haskell and Jim Dandy in favor of coming right into the Travers off a 77-day layoff. Obviously, she knows her horse better than anyone else and thought Arcangelo can train up to this prestigious race. He’s been working brilliantly in the mornings and looks the picture of health. If he can return to his Belmont Stakes form or improve on it, cutting back in distance, Arcangelo can defeat Forte again as well as the others. Contender.

3. Tapit Trice, Jose Ortiz, 12-1

One of the long shots in the Travers will be adding blinkers for the first time. Obviously, trainer Todd Pletcher is looking for anything to help wake up Tapit Trice. He was disappointing in the Kentucky Derby. In the Belmont, he was a credible third, beaten by 1½ lengths. Last time out in the Haskell, he badly regressed, finishing a well-beaten fifth. It’s anyone’s guess what version of Tapit Trice we will see in the Travers. I don’t like guessing in a field where’s there’s far better alternatives. Pretender.

4. Mage, Saez, 4-1

Received one of the great big race rides to upset the Derby field at 15-1. Mage showed more speed in the Preakness finishing a nonthreatening third. He finished a strong second in the Haskell, which should set Mage up nicely for the Travers. I wouldn’t be surprised if he regained his winning ways Saturday, but I think he’s a cut below Forte and Arcangelo as the season has progressed. Contender.

5. National Treasure, Velazquez, 8-1

Trainer Bob Baffert removes the blinkers on this speedster who will set the pace in the Travers. He had a similar pace scenario when he won the Preakness, but this is a stronger field going 1/16th of a mile farther. In the Belmont, National Treasure came unglued at a distance that was clearly too far. I don’t think he will be able to fend off the attackers when faced with intense pressure late. Pretender.

6. Disarm, Rosario, 8-1

He’s been close against the likes of Forte and Mage and never fails to give everything he has. Trainer Steve Asmussen adds blinkers for the first time hoping to keep Disarm’s focus in deep stretch when he’s shown an unwillingness to finish off the deal. If the main competition doesn’t bring their A games and Disarm does, and he responds well to the hood and a return to a dry surface, he could outrun his odds. Contender.

7. Scotland, Alvarado, 12-1

Wired the field in the Curlin, but he won’t get the front end Saturday with National Treasure in the race. With only four starts, he’s the most lightly raced 3-year-old in the field, but he has upside. The competition and distance will be his undoing. Pretender.