AFC Championship Game: Indianapolis at New England

■ WHEN/WHERE: 3:40 p.m. today, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Mass.

■ TV: CBS (8)

■ LINE: Patriots 6½; total 53½

■ Keys to the game: Patriots coach Bill Belichick said he sees no weakness in Colts QB Andrew Luck’s game, but there is one obvious advantage tilting the scales toward New England besides the home-field advantage: Tom Brady is going to his fourth consecutive AFC Championship Game and holds the NFL record with 19 playoff wins. Luck has three.

Belichick is known to unveil a new wrinkle or three as the stakes elevate — right, John Harbaugh? — but he might be wiser sticking with what worked in New England’s 42-20 win at Indy during the regular season. That was riding the running game to eat the clock and give Luck the rightful impression that he needed to hustle to keep the Colts close.

Brady and Co. put up a season-high 28 points during the second half of that game, but the quarterback played more of a bit part than usual. The Patriots have averaged nearly 40 rushing attempts, 200 yards and four ground touchdowns in three previous blowout wins over Luck’s Colts. Three of Indy’s final four opponents during the regular season ran the ball 32 times or more.

For the Colts to counter, they’ll need to take the Patriots out of their comfortable Sunday stroll, putting up points early and often. Luck and the Colts are not known for shifting into higher gears in the first quarter — they have just seven points in two playoff games after averaging 6.7 points in the first quarter during the regular season.

The best option for quick points is WR T.Y. Hilton, who irritated the Broncos into penalties and mental cramps last week. But Hilton will be shadowed again by CB Darrelle Revis, who helped limit Hilton to three catches for 24 yards in November.

■ FRIDAY INJURY REPORT: Colts — Questionable: CB Vontae Davis (knee), CB Gregory Toler (groin); Probable: LB Erik Walden (knee). Patriots — Out: C Bryan Stork (knee); Probable: QB Tom Brady (ankle), CB Brandon Browner (knee), LB Dont’a Hightower (shoulder), DT Chris Jones (elbow), WR Brandon LaFell (shoulder, toe).

■ Matchup to watch: Colts RB Daniel Herron vs. the Patriots’ run defense. New England was chopped up by Justin Forsett and the Ravens last week. The Patriots play bend-don’t-break and will count on their front seven to contain Herron, who did not touch the ball in the teams’ Nov. 16 meeting. Colts running backs combined for 13 carries and four yards in the previous meeting.

■ Player spotlight: Patriots center Brian Stork. Stork is out with a right knee injury that took him out of last week’s divisional playoff game. The rookie fourth-round pick was given plenty of praise and credit for helping to solidify an offensive line that struggled mightily in the first month of the season. Right guard Ryan Wendell, who is light and easily moved, probably will bump inside to the center spot, where he started the previous two seasons, while inconsistent backup Josh Kline probably will play right guard.

■ Fast facts: The Colts have a 2-7 record at Gillette Stadium and a 12-25 overall road record against the Patriots. ... New England is third in the NFL with 422 yards in the playoffs. The Colts are averaging 423 in two wins this postseason. ... This is the 11th AFC title game for the Patriots, who are 7-3. ... The Patriots would tie the Cowboys and Steelers with their eighth Super Bowl appearance with a win today.

■ WHO WILL WIN AND WHY: It would not be a surprise to see Belichick and Brady call for the changeup and come out gunning to set up the run. For the Colts to be in the game into the fourth quarter, Luck must throw strikes all game long and continue his MVP-caliber effort by matching TDs with the Pats.

■ Our pick: Patriots 35-25

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