How likely are the Raiders to land the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft?

The Raiders are likely to get the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft as long as they lose their remaining three games, including what shapes up as a monumental clash against the Giants at Allegiant Stadium on Dec. 28.

It would be a massive jump-start on the organization’s rebuilding efforts as the Raiders could choose between selecting a potential franchise quarterback or auctioning off the pick to load up on what promises to be a much more appealing 2027 draft class.

Currently, the Raiders hold the No. 2 pick behind the Giants despite their identical 2-12 records. Tennessee, also 2-12, sits in third by virtue of having played the most difficult strength of schedule of the group.

The strength of schedule metric will change every week based on results around the league, but the Titans are unlikely to narrow the gap enough to overtake the Raiders or Giants.

That leaves three teams currently in the mix for the top pick, but there are also three teams at 3-11 (Browns, Jets, Cardinals) and three more at 4-10 (Saints, Commanders, Bengals) should any of the bottom three mess around and win a game or two down the stretch.

Here is a look at the road ahead and the chances for each team to earn the right to pick No. 1 in April’s draft in Pittsburgh:

Raiders (2-12)

The Raiders currently have by far the best odds of securing the top pick.

They already are guaranteed to select in the top 10 and have a 93.3 percent chance to pick in the top five, according to ESPN’s FPI. That same metric gives them a 39.8 percent chance to lock in the top position.

A New York Times model is even more optimistic at 47 percent.

The best path is to lose Sunday at Houston, which seems likely as a 14½-point underdog. Then the Raiders return home for two games that could be land mines.

After playing the Giants, currently a 3-point favorite in the game, the Raiders will play a lame duck Chiefs team without Patrick Mahomes, out for the season after undergoing knee surgery Monday.

They should be able to find a path to an 0-3 finish, but it won’t be easy.

The game against the Giants is the most impactful. A win would give the Raiders just a 12 percent chance at the top pick. A loss would put them at 71 percent.

New York Giants (2-12)

The Giants also could control their destiny for the top pick by losing each of their final three games, but they don’t have a daunting game left.

That’s why they’re the fourth most likely team to pick at the top of the draft at 16 percent, according to the ESPN model. The New York Times has them third at 14 percent, though that model also projects them to pick fifth.

New York has a home game against the Vikings on Sunday and closes the season at home against the Cowboys with the trip to Las Vegas in between.

The Giants are a threat to win any of those games.

Tennessee Titans (2-12)

The Titans had the inside track on the top pick for a second consecutive season until they went on the road in the snow and beat the Browns on Dec. 7.

They also get a home game against a Mahomes-less Chiefs team Sunday, giving them a better chance of scoring a potentially disastrous victory.

That will be followed by a home game against the resurgent Saints and a visit to Jacksonville to close the season.

Tennessee is at 19.2 percent to land the top pick in the ESPN model and 17 percent in the New York Times version.

The Titans have played a tough schedule and therefore lose the tiebreaker to every other team.

Cleveland Browns (3-11)

Here is one of the biggest wild cards in the equation.

Cleveland is squarely in the mix, even though it has three wins, largely because the Browns hold the strength of schedule tiebreaker over all nine teams with four wins or less.

Largely based on that, the Browns have an 18.9 percent chance at the top pick on ESPN and 12 percent on the New York Times model.

The ESPN model projects them to pick at No. 2 behind the Raiders in the most scenarios.

Cleveland hosts potential playoff teams in the Bills and Steelers before closing on the road against the rival Bengals.

New York Jets (3-11)

The Jets visit New Orleans in what is almost an elimination game for both teams’ hopes of picking in the top five.

It gets much tougher to see any chance of a victory after that, as New York will host the Patriots before visiting the Bills.

They have an excellent chance of losing out, and they would currently win the tiebreaker over the Raiders and pick first by virtue of their .536 strength of schedule compared with .548 for Las Vegas.

There is a possibility that gap could shrink or get erased, but it will be close. Any win by the Raiders coupled with the Jets losing out significantly reduces the Raiders’ chances to pick first.

The Jets are still at 5.7 percent in the ESPN model to pick first and 9 percent in the New York Times because someone has to lose the game between the Giants and Raiders.

Unless they tie. But we won’t get into that scenario today.