Mountain West basketball preview

(Teams are listed in predicted order of finish based on Mountain West preseason media poll)

1. SAN DIEGO STATE

Coach: Steve Fisher.

2014-15 record: 27-9 (14-4 MW).

Key losses: J.J. O'Brien (10.3 ppg, 5.2 rpg); Dwayne Polee (7.8 ppg, 1.4 spg); Aqeel Quinn (10.7 ppg, 2.8 rpg).

Top newcomers: Zylan Cheatham, R-Fr.; Jeremy Hemsley, Fr.

Key nonconference games: at Utah; vs. California at Las Vegas Invitational; vs. Kansas.

The positives: Fisher has another long, athletic team capable of making a seventh straight NCAA Tournament because he again has the league's best defensive side, one that could actually prove better than last season, when the Aztecs ranked second nationally in scoring defense at 53.9 points per game. Skylar Spencer is already the school's all-time leader in blocks and the puzzling but talented Winston Shepard is now a senior who can guard multiple positions. There is a potential NBA lottery pick in 6-10 sophomore forward Malik Pope and word is no Aztec is more freakishly athletic than the 6-7 Cheatham, who used a medical redshirt last year. If the point guard spot can be handled efficiently by first-year player Hemsley and sophomore Trey Kell can shoot far better from distance than his 22 percent on 3s last season, talent again will speak for itself and San Diego State will again contend for a league championship.

The negatives: The Aztecs last season ranked 254th nationally in 2-point shooting, 266th in 3-point shooting and 339th in free-throw shooting. In other words, they produced more bricks than it took masons in ancient Rome to erect the Colosseum. As much as a new 30-second shot clock will make life miserable for opponents trying to score against the Aztecs, it could also mean more and more rushed and missed shots from Fisher's bunch. James Naismith and his peach basket never had in mind the sort of ugly offense San Diego State can produce some nights.

The potential high and low of it: The Aztecs are talented enough to reach a Sweet 16 and challenged enough on offense to finish third in league and head for the National Invitation Tournament.

2. BOISE STATE

Coach: Leon Rice.

2014-15 record: 25-9 (14-4 MW).

Key losses: Derrick Marks (19.4 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 3.0 apg).

Top newcomers: Lonnie Jackson, Sr.; Zach Haney, R-Fr.; Paris Austin, Fr.

Key nonconference games: at Arizona; vs. Oregon; vs. UC Irvine at Wooden Legacy.

The positives: If there is such a thing as a silver lining within a critical loss, Boise State discovered it last year. Anthony Drmic is an all-conference player who went down for the season after seven games with an injured ankle, but in his absence emerged the talented James Webb III, who earned Newcomer of the Year honors. Now, Drmic and his 1,500 career points are back and Webb is a rising junior forward, giving the Broncos one of the league's top 1-2 combinations. Nick Duncan is listed at 6-8, 260 pounds, and looks more like the guy you see running up and down at the Y for afternoon pickup games, but he's also Boise State's most important player as an undersized center who can take bigs away from the basket while shooting nearly 40 percent on 3s. He also might be the league's smartest player.

The negatives: Who's going to run the show? Marks was the league's Player of the Year last season, but someone needs to replace the point guard. Jackson, a graduate transfer from Boston College, is a wing who could help from a scoring standpoint with his 3-point shooting. But in terms of facilitating, those duties fall to seniors Mikey Thompson (Canyon Springs High) and Montigo Alford, along with the freshman Austin. The front court lacks depth beyond the Drmic-Webb-Duncan trio and it's unknown if the Broncos can continue to improve what was much better defense last year than in recent seasons.

The potential high and low of it: The Broncos are good enough to repeat as conference champion and return to the NCAAs. They could even win a game once there. But there isn't a huge margin for error, and any slip defensively could deny them another berth.

3. UTAH STATE

Coach: Tim Duryea.

2014-15 record: 18-13 (11-7 MW).

Key losses: JoJo McGlaston (5.6 ppg, 3.0 rpg).

Top newcomers: Lew Evans, Jr.; Shane Rector, Jr.

Key nonconference games: at Duke; at BYU.

The positives: Fourteen years as an assistant later, Duryea takes over the Aggies for the retired Stew Morrill, the winningest coach in school history. Such a challenge will be aided by the fact Utah State returns all five starters, including one of the league's best players in junior forward Jalen Moore (15.2 ppg, 6.7 rpg). David Collette led the team in blocks (56) and shooting (59.1 percent) as a freshman last season, and Evans is a transfer from Tulsa who will see time up front. There isn't a better 3-point attack in conference than Moore-Chris Smith-Darius Perkins, which made 40 percent of its combined attempts last year. Morrill wanted more than anything to leave his long-time aid a talented roster capable of contending with the league's best teams. He definitely succeeded.

The negatives: It has taken some time for Utah State, upon making the switch from the Western Athletic Conference into the Mountain West three years ago, to recruit the sort of athleticism needed to win a league title. The Aggies aren't there yet, mostly because they haven't rebounded well enough to be considered a serious threat. They ranked in the 300s nationally in offensive and defensive rebounding last season and, while a player like Evans might help improve those numbers, it's not realistic to believe Utah State will be able to stay even on the boards with the league's more athletic teams. The Aggies can begin such a process by grabbing more than 21.7 percent of their missed shots this season.

The potential high and low of it: Morrill guided the Aggies into the post-season in 13 of his 17 seasons, but Utah State has now missed such a reward three straight years. Duryea has a team good enough to make the NIT, but it would take some fortunate results to sniff the NCAAs.

4. UNLV

Coach: Dave Rice.

2014-15 record: 18-15 (8-10 MW).

Key losses: Rashad Vaughn (17.8 ppg, 4.8 rpg); Christian Wood (15.7 ppg, 10.0 rpg); Cody Doolin (6.4 ppg, 3.9 apg); Jelan Kendrick (7.1 ppg, 2.9 apg).

Top newcomers: Stephen Zimmerman, Fr.; Ben Carter, Jr.; Jerome Seagears, Sr.; Ike Nwamu, Sr.

Key nonconference games: vs. UCLA at Maui Invitational; at Arizona; vs. Oregon at MGM Grand; at Wichita State; vs. Arizona State.

The positives: So many players, so much depth. Rice has promised that in the fifth season as coach of his alma mater, the Rebels will run and press as their fan base has hoped since he returned. There are all sorts of options up front, with the freshman Zimmerman and Oregon transfer Carter and such returners as sophomores Goodluck Okonoboh and Dwayne Morgan. The backcourt also owns skill in sophomores Patrick McCaw and Jordan Cornish and a Rutgers transfer in Seagears, who will get the first opportunity to prove he can run the point at a high level. Another potential double-digit scorer is Nwamu, a graduate transfer from Mercer. Oh, yeah. Derrick Jones can dunk a little.

The negatives: Can the Rebels rebound well enough to win big? Can they close out those games that ended in losses last season, when UNLV dropped eight of 16 contests it led at halftime? Can they use what is an incredibly challenging nonconference schedule to settle on a rotation that might allow them to contend in conference? Is there such a thing as too many pieces? All are important questions as Rice attempts to return the Rebels to an NCAA Tournament they have missed in consecutive seasons and in the process make certain he will remain as head coach.

The potential high and low of it: On paper, UNLV can win the league and earn a respectable NCAA seed. But proof comes in results, and the Rebels have a lot to prove before anyone should be talking about March Madness. The ceiling is high, but not reaching it could result in a total overhaul.

5. FRESNO STATE

Coach: Rodney Terry.

2014-15 record: 15-17 (10-8 MW).

Key losses: Alex Davis (4.9 ppg, 3.9 rpg); Emmanuel Owootoah (22.8 mpg; 3.8 ppg).

Top newcomers: Torren Jones, Jr.; Cullen Russo, Jr.; Lionel Ellison III, Jr.; Jahmel Taylor, Jr.

Key nonconference games: at Oregon; at Arizona.

The positives: Terry has quietly compiled some serious ability in Fresno. The top five scorers from last season return and are joined by a host of junior-college and major college transfers, led by a former Missouri player in the forward Jones, who should help what was an awful rebounding team improve on the boards. Marvelle Harris (16.4 ppg, 5.0 rpg) is the league's preseason Player of the Year at one guard spot, and senior point Cezar Guerrero seems to have all those NCAA eligibility issues that cost him 17 games last season resolved. Julien Lewis needs to start making those 3-pointers expected when he transferred from Texas. Fresno State had wins against co-champions Boise State and San Diego State last year, and the Bulldogs are even deeper this time around.

The negatives: For all its potential, the Bulldogs were really bad in two pretty significant areas last year: The couldn't shoot (211th nationally at 38.1 percent on two-point baskets and 274th on 3s) and couldn't rebound (293rd at a minus-3.2 margin) much at all. There were far too many one-and-done possessions for the Bulldogs to secure a top five finish in league. Offensive rebounding is critical to beating the better, more athletic Mountain West teams, and the Bulldogs have to discover more ways to get second and third shots. "Rebounding is a mentality," Terry said. "You have to want to go get someone."

The potential high and low of it: No team this side of UNLV owns a better chance at making a major jump in the standings than Fresno State. The Bulldogs have improved their league wins from five to nine to 10 under Terry, and offer a roster this season capable of making a post-season tournament.

6. NEW MEXICO

Coach: Craig Neal.

2014-15 record: 15-16 (7-11 MW).

Key losses: Hugh Greenwood (11.6 ppg, 3.3 apg); Deshawn Delaney (11.7 ppg, 5.3 rpg); Jordan Goodman (6.3 ppg, 2.3 rpg).

Top newcomers: Elijah Brown, So.; Tim Williams, Jr.; Nikola Scekic, Fr.

Key nonconference games: at Southern California; at Purdue; vs. Auburn in Diamond Head Classic.

The positives: Cullen Neal is healthy, which alone might be enough for the Lobos to finish higher than expected. The son of head coach Craig Neal, the sophomore guard Cullen used a medical redshirt last season (ankle) after averaging 24.5 points and four assists over just two games. He will be joined in the backcourt by transfers Brown and Williams, and the opportunity exists for size mismatches inside with a pair of centers in junior Obij Aget (7-1, 220) and Scekic (7-1, 255), the first-year player from Serbia. Such size could make New Mexico an even better rebounding team than last season, when it ranked 37th nationally. Coaches are also high on a recruiting class of three freshmen guards.

The negatives: Scoring. The Lobos struggled mightily at it last year, ranking 301st nationally with a 62.0 ppg average. They shot just 30.8 percent on 3s and could never find enough offensive answers once Neal decided to sit out the season. Such woes resulted in an eight-game losing streak at one point. The loss of Greenwood will also be a significant obstacle to overcome. He was more than a point guard. He was the face of New Mexico's program on and off the court, as he became a champion for cancer awareness in light of his mother suffering from the disease.

The potential high and low of it: Neal's seat might not be as hot as Dave Rice's at UNLV, but it's definitely in the warming stages. The Lobos took a major step back last season after winning 27 games in Neal's first year as head coach, and while winning more than 15 this season is likely, even an NIT berth will take some doing.

7. COLORADO STATE

Coach: Larry Eustachy.

2014-15 record: 27-7 (13-5 MW).

Key losses: Daniel Bejarano (11.4 ppg, 7.2 rpg); J.J. Avila (16.7 ppg, 7.5 rpg); Stanton Kidd (11.6 ppg, 5.1 rpg).

Top newcomers: Antwan Scott, Sr.; J.D. Paige, R-Fr.; Kimani Jackson, So.; Emmanuel Omogbo, Jr.

Key nonconference games: vs. Kansas State in Wichita; vs. Colorado.

The positives: Eustachy is one of the more underrated coaches nationally and it's always a safe bet he will get more out of his team than predicted. It's highly doubtful the Rams can come close to matching last year's conference-leading 72.2 scoring average (58th nationally), but there is offensive potential in senior guards Gian Clavell (9.2 ppg) and Joe De Ciman (7.9 ppg, 38 percent on 3s) and junior guard John Gillon (7.9 ppg), the league's Sixth Man of the Year last season. Prentiss Nixon is a freshman point guard out of Chicago who could see major minutes early in his career.

The negatives: The trio of Bejarano, Avila and Kidd combined to average nearly 40 of those 72 points last season. Simply, it's just too much to replace and believe the Rams can contend. There is little experience up front beyond returning forward Dantiel Daniels, meaning junior-college transfers in Jackson and Omogbo must contribute immediately. Scott averaged nearly 16 points at Grambling State before transferring for a final season, but he's coming off a foot injury. The Rams will miss those three standouts most on the boards, where CSU ranked 21st nationally in rebound margin at plus-6.

The potential high and low of it: CSU won 27 games last season, missed the NCAA Tournament because its nonconference schedule (which hasn't been dramatically upgraded this year) didn't hold up against others and were bounced at home in the first round of the NIT in a emotional-less hangover effort. The post-season is hardly such a given this year. If this team is playing past the conference tournament in March, Eustachy is better than we think, and we think he's pretty darn good.

8. WYOMING

Coach: Larry Shyatt.

2014-15 record: 25-10 (11-7 MW).

Key losses: Larry Nance Jr. (16.1 ppg, 7.2 rpg); Riley Grabau (9.1 ppg, 94 perent FT).

Top newcomers: Austin Conway, Fr.; Justin James, Fr.; Cody Kelley, Fr.

Key nonconference games: vs. California.

The positives: Shyatt is another one of those top three or so Mountain West coaches who refuses to provide any player minutes if he doesn't embrace playing defense. The Cowboys are in a serious rebuilding mode, but you can again expect them to limit opposing possessions. Josh Adams was the Most Valuable Player of the conference tournament last March and returns for a senior season having averaged 12 points, three rebounds and three assists. He's as good as it gets in the Mountain West going from one end of the court to the next. A preseason all-conference pick, Adams hopes to ensure Wyoming will finish higher in league than predicted for a third straight season. Josh McManamen, a sixth man last season who made some key shots in big wins, is a junior.

The negatives: You can begin with the fact Wyoming lost four starters and will offer a roster with a combined 10 freshmen and sophomores. Nance was a first-round draft pick of the Lakers and his production at both ends can't be replaced by just one body. Of eight new faces, six arrive directly from high school programs, including arguably the state's all-time most decorated prep player in Kelley. The Cowboys will be tested with a new 30-second shot clock, given how they struggle to score (309th nationally last year at 61.5 ppg).

The potential high and low of it: Shyatt is a master at building something from nothing. He did it before in Laramie in the late 1990s and now gets another opportunity. You still can't get breathe easy at 7,200 feet, so expect Wyoming to remain a tough out at home. There likely won't be any conference tournament magic this year, not from a team with this many unproven players at the major college level.

9. UNR

Coach: Eric Musselman.

2014-15 record: 9-22 (5-13 MW).

Key losses: Michael Perez (6.4 ppg, 3.0 rpg); Ronnie Stevens Jr. (3.0 ppg, 3.0 rpg).

Top newcomers: Lindsey Drew, Fr.; Juwan Anderson, Fr.

Key nonconference games: at Oregon State; at Wichita State.

The positives: Musselman is a first-year head coach for the Wolf Pack with an extensive resume, a journey that has produced time with seven professional teams, including NBA head coaching stops at Golden State and Sacramento. He also spent time as a college assistant at Arizona State and LSU. He inherits a UNR team that returns its top five scorers and among them is the league's best rebounder in senior forward AJ West, who snatched a greater percentage of offensive boards last year than any player nationally. The backcourt is experienced with seniors Marqueze Coleman and Tyron Criswell, while the freshman Drew, a former ASU commit, is also expected to compete for time at point guard.

The negatives: Think of the Wolf Pack as San Diego State without the talent and length and athleticism and home court advantage. UNR last season ranked 322nd nationally in scoring with a 60.5 ppg average, meaning the fact it returns so many players could prove to be a bad thing if several don't improve their shooting. Musselman leads a team that shot 38 percent from the field, including a dreadful 26.6 percent on 3s. Eric Cooper Jr. is a sophomore guard with promise, but he has to find the net from distance far more often than the 26 percent he offered last season.

The potential high and low of it: West will again be a beast to handle inside and Musselman has already shown some positive signs on the recruiting trail — four-star point guard Devearl Ramsey is one of four commits in the 2016 class — but UNR isn't yet close to a top-tiered program in the league. A good season would be to improve the overall win total by five and to flirt with a top seven finish in conference.

10. AIR FORCE

Coach: Dave Pilipovich.

2014-15 record: 14-17 (6-12 MW).

Key losses: Max Yon (12.4 ppg, 2.4 rpg); Marek Olesinski (9.9 ppg, 4.7 rpg); Kamryn Williams (9.5 ppg, 6.0 rpg); Matt Mooney (6.9 ppg, 1.9 rpg); Justin Hammonds (6.4 ppg, 3.6 rpg); DeLovell Earls (2.2 ppg, 1.8 rpg).

Top newcomers: Dane Norman, Fr.; Jason Anderson, Fr.

Key nonconference games: at Southern Illinois; at Colorado.

The positives: Playing the Falcons still demands opposing coaches pop a few extra Tylenol when prepping a scout. Air Force led the conference in assists last season and ranked 19th nationally with a 15.6 average, another year in which the Falcons got the most out of every basket their Princeton-style offense created. Trevor Lyons is a sophomore point guard who had just 30 turnovers in 864 minutes last season, and his 44 percent shooting from 3-point range will demand defenders know where he is through all those back-cuts and flare screens. Also keep an eye on junior forward Hayden Graham, who at 6-5 might not be able to fit in any fighter jet, but can certainly aid the Falcons on the boards, where there is always a need for help in Colorado Springs.

The negatives: Last season had to feel like a disappointment for the Falcons, given all the experience that defined their lineup. Now, most of those who contributed are gone, leaving Air Force with countless holes to fill. But even if the Falcons discover capable bodies, none of it will matter if they continue to defend so poorly. The one area that best defined Air Force when it was contending for conference titles — it led the nation in scoring defense from 2003-06 — is no longer. The Falcons just can't stop the league's best teams any more, allowing an average of 65.1 points last season, eighth in the Mountain West.

The potential high and low of it: The Falcons started 11 different lineups last season, and that was with an experienced group. Any win, in or out of conference, should be treasured.

11. SAN JOSE STATE

Coach: Dave Wojcik.

2014-15 record: 2-28 (0-18 MW).

Key losses: Rashad Muhammad (13.9 ppg, 3.3 rpg); Jaleel Williams (11.1 ppg, 4.7 rpg); Darryl Gaynor II (9.0 ppg, 2.0 apg).

Top newcomers: Cody Schwartz, Fr.; Princeton Onwas, Sr.; Gary Williams Jr., Jr.; Jaycee Hillsman, Fr.

Key nonconference games: vs. Toledo at Great Alaska Shootout; at Marquette.

The positives: Give us a year or two. There has to be something for a team that has gone 1-35 in two Mountain West seasons under Wojcik. There is promise in Onwas, a 6-6 transfer forward from Utah who sat out last season and should help replace some of the scoring lost with the departure of seven players, including the team's top five scorers. Also, Schwartz is a nice piece from which to continue the massive rebuilding project, a 6-8 forward and all-state pick out of Wisconsin. The point guard is Williams, a 6-5 junior-college transfer. Jalen James is a sophomore who actually showed some promise at the guard spot last year, averaging nearly seven points and four rebounds before going down with a season-ending ankle injury.

The negatives: Give us a second or two. There are thousands. You might be looking at the nation's worst team, one that has offered just one winning season since 1994 and ranked the following nationally last season: 350th in scoring; 263rd in scoring defense; 332nd in rebound margin; 303rd in turnovers; 324th in assists; 351st in shooting; 340th in 3-point shooting; and 304th in free-throw shooting. It figures to be yet another ridiculously long season in and out of The Event Center.

The potential high and low of it: The Spartans didn't beat a Division I opponent last season. Looking at this year's schedule, you can put the odds at it happening this time at 30-1. That might be generous. There are non-Division I wins available against Antelope Valley and Life Pacific College, the latter having no connection to a local insurance company. We think.