Vegas Nation predictions for Raiders’ 2025 season: Is 8 wins possible?

A big season is on tap for the Raiders.

The Pete Carroll era gets started with a new starting quarterback in Geno Smith and a new standout running back in Ashton Jeanty, the No. 6 overall pick in April’s draft. The Raiders hope the trio leads them to success for years to come.

But first, the team wants to take a step forward after a disappointing 4-13 campaign in 2024.

Las Vegas Review-Journal reporters Vincent Bonsignore and Adam Hill discussed their expectations for the upcoming season and made some predictions during a recent episode of their “First and 10” podcast for Vegas Nation.

Here is a portion of their conversation:

The season will go well if…

Bonsignore: If the Raiders improve their run game and win the turnover battle. I think that to me, they either have to be even or plus in turnovers. If they don’t, this is not going to be a successful season. And they’ve got to get a lot better running the ball. They were 32nd in rushing last year. I think that needs to get into the mid teens.

Hill: I will say some obvious ones first. Geno Smith stays healthy. That’s easy. That’s a very important one. I think health is a big one. And so far health has held up here in the preseason. But I think a bigger one is if the young players are ready. There are going to be a lot of young players in the lineup. Obviously, we talk about the skill position guys on offense with Ashton Jeanty and Dont’e Thornton. But you look on the defensive side, will a guy like Darien Porter be able to step up or one of the young linebackers potentially be able to step up? Add Kyu Blu Kelly to that. There are all these different guys that are young, that are going to be counted on for key roles. They have to be ready and they have to be advanced beyond their years for this team to have not only the kind of season that they could have, but to even exceed their own expectations.

Where could things go completely sideways?

Bonsignore: Well, I’ll steal a page from your book and say Geno has to stay healthy. That’s a deal breaker for the Raiders. But also if they’re loose with the football the way they were last year. I keep harping on turnovers, but it’s just so important. It’ll go sideways if they’re loosey-goosey with the ball and not taking it away. And if they can’t find a way to develop a reliable run game, I think that’s going to go hand-in-hand with what Geno’s able to do, offensively.

Hill: I think if the offensive line doesn’t take a step forward, that’s a big one. I think a lot of people expect that to happen. I expect them to be better. I think even though it’s largely the same personnel, I think the Chip Kelly scheme fits them better and I think that they’re going to have more success just based on that. But that’s not a guarantee.

One thing I am absolutely certain about…

Bonsignore: I think Ashton Jeanty is going to run for over 1,200 yards this year. And I think Brock Bowers is going to take over as the best tight end in football.

Hill: Is he not already?

Bonsignore: Well, he will solidify that.

Hill: I’ll try to go a little off the board for something I’m certain of, and maybe it’s hard to quantify because statistically it’s a low bar, but I’ll say that Tre Tucker has by far his best season as a pro. That’s probably not hard in terms of raw numbers, but I think he’ll have an impactful year.

My biggest question mark about this team is…

Bonsignore: The defense, without question. Specifically, the young cornerbacks. I’m not ready to call it a concern because there were no times during training camp where I was like, ‘Oh my God,’ like we were with the quarterbacks last year and how poor they were playing and it was like, ‘Oh boy, this looks really bad.’ I’ve never really felt that way about the corners this year. They had good moments and moments where they were getting beat. That happens in training camp. So it’s a question, but not necessarily a concern. But if it becomes a concern, I guess I wouldn’t be completely shocked.

Hill: I was probably going to say the corners, too, but I’ll actually go with Malcolm Koonce. I love Malcolm and what he did at the end of 2023 was spectacular. But it’s a long road back and a lot of times that first year back (from knee surgery) is still kind of a struggle. It’s usually two years later where you see the guy truly get back to full strength. But Malcolm Koonce to me is a big question mark. I’m not saying that in a negative way. It’s just that if he’s healthy, he could be very impactful. The team could really, really benefit from that. But we just don’t know yet.

Over or under?

Hill: OK, the season win total is 7½. I think we will agree here, as well.

Bonsignore: I’m going to go over and part of the reason is what we just discussed. I think the offense is going to be much better and I think that as much as we want to talk about how you have to have a good defense to have a real successful season and especially to win a championship, I don’t care how good your defense is because if you can’t score points, you’re in trouble. And the Raiders have been in trouble really the last two years now with their offense. … I think that gets fixed this year and it’s going to give them a chance to win more than seven games.

Hill: I’ve never been more certain of a team finishing either 8-9 or 9-8. I just think that’s what this team is and that would be a big step up from last year. I was very vocal about it and we argued a lot about it here on this podcast early in the offseason, but I thought they were doing everything they could to avoid being awful. And I think they’ve done that. I think that’s where they’re at. … I think they’re going to be very competitive in a lot of games and win either eight or nine. I don’t think they can win much more and I don’t think they can really lose many more.

Contact Vincent Bonsignore at vbonsignore@reviewjournal.com. Follow @VinnyBonsignore on X. Contact Adam Hill at ahill@reviewjournal.com. Follow @AdamHillLVRJ on X