NFL Week 2 betting breakdown: Predictions for every game
NFL BETTING BREAKDOWN
Doug Fitz, Systemplays.com, @fitz_doug
Chargers (1-0) at Raiders (1-0)
* Time: 7 p.m. Monday, ESPN
* Line/total: Chargers -3½, 46½
* Analysis: The Raiders are in a good situational spot in this home division clash. The Raiders are 5-1 against the spread at home on Monday night and 12-6 ATS in revenge games against the Chargers, which includes 6-2 ATS as a home underdog. From watching every prime-time Raiders game since they relocated to Las Vegas, they play their best in these games and they should win outright. Play a percentage on the money line (+160) also.
* Pick: Raiders 31, Chargers 24
Patriots (0-1) at Dolphins (0-1)
* Time: 10 a.m.
* Line/total: Dolphins -1½, 43
* Analysis: After Miami was outgained by the Colts by a 2-1 margin (418-221) and committed three turnovers in a 33-8 loss in Week 1, I’m looking for the Dolphins to turn things around at home against the Patriots. New England coach Mike Vrabel makes questionable in-game decisions. The Patriots are 2-6 ATS in their last eight division games as a road underdog and are on a 4-14 spread slide as underdogs of four points or fewer.
* Pick: Dolphins 24, Patriots 21
Jaguars (1-0) at Bengals (1-0)
* Time: 10 a.m.
* Line/total: Bengals -3½, 49
* Analysis: The Bengals were lucky to win last week when the Browns did what they usually do in missing an extra point and a chip shot field goal. Cincinnati had only 141 total offensive yards. Since 2010, teams with 200 or less yards in Week 1 are 5-13 straight up and 5-12-1 ATS in Week 2. The Jaguars are on a 13-7-3 ATS record against AFC North opponents, including 11-3-1 ATS versus teams coming off a win.
* Pick: Jaguars 21, Bengals 17
Browns (0-1) at Ravens (0-1)
* Time: 10 a.m.
* Line/total: Ravens -12, 45
* Analysis: The Ravens are the obvious better team but this is a division game and, for whatever reason, the Browns always seem to play them tough. Cleveland is 7-2 ATS as a visitor in this series when both teams are coming off a loss. This number is much too high for a tough AFC North matchup.
* Pick: Ravens 24, Browns 17
Giants (0-1) at Cowboys (0-1)
* Time: 10 a.m.
* Line/total: Cowboys -5½, 44½
* Analysis: The Giants are last in the NFL in yards per point with six points on 231 yards (38.5 yards per point). I thought New York quarterback Russell Wilson might still be relevant but he was awful in last week’s 21-6 loss to the Commanders. Wilson is on a short leash and rookie Jaxson Dart will probably be the starter soon. This game could clinch that scenario. The Giants are 1-15 straight up in the last 16 meetings and 4-12 ATS.
* Pick: Cowboys 31, Giants 10
Rams (1-0) at Titans (0-1)
* Time: 10 a.m.
* Line/total: Rams -5½, 41½
* Analysis: Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford is only 4-10-1 ATS as a road favorite when coming off a win and facing teams off a loss. The Titans are 6-0 ATS in their last six games against Los Angeles and they’re 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games against NFC opponents.
* Pick: Titans 21, Rams 18
Bills (1-0) at Jets (0-1)
* Time: 10 a.m
* Line/total: Bills -6, 47
* Analysis: The Bills are in a letdown spot after their dramatic 41-40 come-from-behind home win over the Ravens and are now going on the road against a division opponent. The number seems inflated to me. The Jets are on a 13-0 ATS run as a home underdog against AFC opponents with at least one win.
* Pick: Jets 28, Bills 25
Bears (0-1) at Lions (0-1)
* Time: 10 a.m.
* Line/total: Lions -6½, 46½
* Analysis: This game puzzles me and I don’t have a good handicap. The Bears’ defense folded like a cheap tent in the second half of Monday night’s 27-24 loss to the Vikings, while the Lions looked awful in a 27-13 loss to the Packers at Lambeau Field. I suppose the prudent thing is to just take the points since this is a division game.
* Pick: Lions 28, Bears 24
Seahawks (0-1) at Steelers (1-0)
* Time: 10 a.m.
* Line/total: Steelers -3, 40½
* Analysis: The Steelers won but didn’t cover in last week’s 34-32 win over the Jets, and they were outgained by 123 yards. But quarterback Aaron Rodgers looked good in his Pittsburgh debut. The number seems about right to me so I’ll give a weak endorsement to the underdog because the Steelers gave up a ton of points to the Jets.
* Pick: Seahawks 20, Steelers 17
49ers (1-0) at Saints (0-1)
* Time: 10 a.m.
* Line/total: 49ers -3, 40½
* Analysis: The 49ers are dealing with key injuries as quarterback Brock Purdy is expected to miss two to five weeks with a turf toe and issue in his non-throwing shoulder, and tight end George Kittle is out for at least the next four weeks after San Francisco placed him on injured reserve with a hamstring injury. Mac Jones is expected to make his first start as a 49er in place of Purdy. The low number reflects the Niners injuries but I still see value in them, and I think they win and cover. Saints quarterback Spencer Rattler is 0-7 straight up as a starter and he doesn’t look like a capable NFL quarterback.
* Pick: 49ers 21, Saints 10
Panthers (0-1) at Cardinals (1-0)
* Time: 1:05 p.m.
* Line/total: Cardinals -7, 44½
* Analysis: The Cardinals struggle when trying to win their second straight game as they are on a run of 1-12 straight up in those spots. Over the last four seasons, they’re only 5-8 straight up and ATS as a non-division home favorite. The Panthers have won and covered seven of the last eight meetings with Arizona. Carolina is 17-9-1 ATS in its second consecutive road game when facing an opponent off a win. Play some percentage of your bet on the money line (+250) as well.
* Pick: Panthers 26, Cardinals 23
Broncos (1-0) at Colts (1-0)
* Time: 1:05 p.m.
* Line/total: Broncos -1½, 43½
* Analysis: Not much of an opinion as this is another tough game to handicap. I’ll give a lukewarm endorsement to the home underdog. Denver is 2-7 ATS in the first of consecutive road games over their last nine games in that role. The Colts are on a 22-11 ATS run as home underdogs when coming off a win.
* Pick: Colts 21, Broncos 19
Eagles (1-0) at Chiefs (0-1)
* Time: 1:25 p.m.
* Line/total: Eagles -1, 47
* Analysis: I expect the Chiefs to avenge their Super Bowl loss to the Eagles. Anytime you can get Patrick Mahomes as a home underdog is just an automatic take, no matter what, and it obviously won’t happen very often so take full advantage. The Super Bowl losers in recent years seem to terribly underachieve in the following season. But Super Bowl losers are 80-63-5 ATS at home coming off a loss, including 55-19 straight up against opponents off a win. Super Bowl winners are 14-25 ATS in Week 2 since 1986, including 5-14 ATS as road favorites.
* Pick: Chiefs 27, Eagles 24
Falcons (0-1) at Vikings (1-0)
* Time: 5:20 p.m., NBC
* Line/total: Vikings -3½, 44½
* Analysis: The Falcons outgained the Buccaneers by nearly 100 yards but lost the game. Teams in this spot are good bets the following week. Atlanta is 12-4 straight up and 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games, including 9-1 ATS when coming off a loss. Sprinkle in a little money line (+160) also.
* Pick: Falcons 28, Vikings 20
Buccaneers (1-0) at Texans (0-1)
* Time: 4 p.m. Monday, ABC, ESPN
* Line/total: Texans -2½, 42½
* Analysis: The Bucs are 0-10 ATS on Mondays when coming off a win. The Texans are on a 3-0 ATS streak on Mondays and are 3-1-1 ATS in this series. Lay the short favorite.
* Pick: Texans 23, Buccaneers 20
