NFL Week 11 betting breakdown: Predictions for every game
NFL BETTING BREAKDOWN
Scott Kellen, @SixthSenseNFL
Cowboys (3-5-1) at Raiders (2-7)
Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ABC, ESPN
Line/total: Cowboys -3, 50
Analysis: The Raiders are down a second offensive lineman in Jackson Powers-Johnson. They lost their best offensive lineman earlier this season in Kolton Miller. This is an offensive line that has struggled to run and throw the ball and is allowing an above average amount of sacks. Unfortunately for the Raiders, they aren’t getting enough sacks, either. The defense, which has been above average overall, gets a Cowboys offense coming off a bye week that has been good. Dallas fortified its defensive line during the bye by acquiring Quinnen Williams from the Jets. The Cowboys’ above average defensive line will likely create issues for the Raiders’ injury-riddled offensive line. And that can present problems if the Dallas offense gets going.
Pick: Cowboys 30, Raiders 20
Commanders (3-7) vs. Dolphins (3-7), at Madrid
Time: 6:30 a.m., NFLN
Line/total: Dolphins -2½, 47½
Analysis: Washington is headed the wrong way, and injuries are starting to mount on both sides of the ball. Miami also has had its share of injuries and traded its best pass rusher before the deadline. These teams are about even, and Miami shouldn’t be favored by 2½ or 3 points.
Pick: Commanders 23, Dolphins 20
Packers (5-3-1) at Giants (2-8)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Packers -7, 42½
Analysis: Jameis Winston gets the start at quarterback for the Giants. Do we get good Jameis or bad Jameis? Probably a bit of both. Green Bay’s defense continues to be good, but it has been average sacking the quarterback. And the offense is almost average now with several poor games in a row.
Pick: Packers 22, Giants 17
Buccaneers (6-3) at Bills (6-3)
Time: 10 a.m., CBS
Line/total: Bills -5½, 46½
Analysis: Buffalo is coming off a loss at Miami as an 8½-point road favorite. Tampa Bay comes in off a home loss to New England. Both teams were beaten badly at the line of scrimmage. The Buccaneers continue to miss their best receivers. Both teams are about equal at the line of scrimmage, but the Buccaneers have lived off a +8 net turnover margin this season.
Pick: Bills 27, Buccaneers 21
Bengals (3-6) at Steelers (5-4)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Steelers -5½, 48½
Analysis: The perception is the Cincinnati offense is good. In reality, the Bengals are average on offense and have one of the worst defenses we have seen in a long time. The Steelers have lived off a +6 in net turnover margin and are sacking the quarterback at an above average rate. The Bengals have scored 17, 10, 3 and 18 points on the road.
Pick: Steelers 24, Bengals 17
Texans (4-5) at Titans (1-8)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Texans -6, 37
Analysis: Houston will play without quarterback C.J. Stroud again, as backup Davis Mills gets the start. The Texans come off three straight home games and are 1-3 straight up on the road this season, though the three losses were to good teams. Tennessee struggles to cover against anybody, but I do show value on the Titans.
Pick: Texans 20, Titans 17
Bears (6-3) at Vikings (4-5)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Vikings -3, 48½
Analysis: The Bears are average on offense and horrible on defense. They are 6-3 because they are +14 in net turnovers. The Vikings give up too many sacks and are below average on offense, but they are above average on defense. They also turn the ball over too much at -7 in net turnover margin. Minnesota outgained Baltimore by 1.1 yards per play last week, but a -3 in turnover margin cost it the game.
Pick: Vikings 27, Bears 20
Panthers (5-5) at Falcons (3-6)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Falcons -3½, 42
Analysis: Carolina is not a good team despite its .500 record. The Panthers were outgained by the Saints at home last week by 2.3 yards per play. Their pass offense is horrible, and the defense is below average. They are also -5 in net turnover margin. Atlanta’s pass defense has been good, and it gets a lot of pressure on the quarterback. The Panthers put no pressure on the quarterback.
Pick: Falcons 24, Panthers 20
Chargers (7-3) at Jaguars (5-4)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Chargers -3, 44
Analysis: The Chargers have played a lot of close games on the road, and none of those teams is good: Raiders, Giants, Dolphins and Titans. Now the Chargers get a Jaguars squad that was outplayed from the line of scrimmage last week at Houston and blew a big lead. But Jacksonville has been good at home with wins over Carolina, Houston and Kansas City.
Pick: Jaguars 23, Chargers 20
Seahawks (7-2) at Rams (7-2)
Time: 1:05 p.m., Fox
Line/total: Rams -3, 48½
Analysis: Both of these teams are playing well. And the Seahawks are -4 in net turnover margin, which tells you just how good they have been from the line of scrimmage. The Rams are +7 in net turnover margin. Both of these teams get to the quarterback and don’t allow their quarterback to be sacked.
Pick: Rams 28, Seahawks 24
49ers (6-4) at Cardinals (3-6)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/total: 49ers -3, 48½
Analysis: Arizona is getting the 49ers at the wrong time. San Francisco gets back quarterback Brock Purdy and receiver Ricky Pearsall this week. The Cardinals will be without wideout Marvin Harrison. The Niners still have weaknesses on defense, but the offense has been good throwing the ball. The Cardinals offense has struggled this season.
Pick: 49ers 28, Cardinals 21
Ravens (4-5) at Browns (2-7)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/total: Ravens -7½, 38½
Analysis: The Browns lost at the Jets last week, but they allowed New York only 3.6 yards per play and net 42 yards passing. Two special team touchdowns helped the Jets to the victory. I realize Cleveland’s defense is good and even better at home. But the Ravens have scored 27 or more points in all five games quarterback Lamar Jackson has started and played at least 95 percent of the snaps.
Pick: Ravens 28, Browns 17
Chiefs (5-4) at Broncos (8-2)
Time: 1:25 p.m., CBS
Line/total: Chiefs -4, 45
Analysis: The Broncos defense is exceptional, but the offense has struggled all season. This is not a great Chiefs defense, but it has been above average and holding opponents to six points below their season average. The Chiefs have scored 28 or more points in five of their past six games and should be well prepared off their bye week.
Pick: Chiefs 28, Broncos 21
Lions (6-3) at Eagles (7-2)
Time: 5:20 p.m., NBC
Line/total: Eagles -2½, 46½
Analysis: I don’t expect Philadelphia to shut down the Lions, but holding them to 20 points gives the Eagles a chance to win. Philadelphia has a way of performing at its best when needed, especially at home. Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts is 21-5 straight up at home in the regular season.
Pick: Eagles 28, Lions 20
