Polls show close races for Nevada governor, U.S. Senate

Polls released in recent days differ on the projected winners, but they agree that Nevada’s biggest races are going to be close.

“Some say (Adam) Laxalt, some (Catherine) Cortez Masto, but they’re all close. That’s what we can take away from the polls,” said Dan Lee, associate professor of political science at UNLV. “Can we predict who’s going to win? Maybe not. But we can predict it’s going to be a close race.”

Polls are generally accurate, but there will be variations among them, which is why political analysts and websites such as RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight average the results of the polls to make predictions, Lee said. Averages of polls show very slight leads for Republicans, but the races remain toss-ups.

Historically in Nevada, it was difficult to get a representative sampling of voters — and accurate polls — because of the state’s transient population, odd work schedules and other factors. But in the past few election cycles, polls have actually been quite accurate, Lee said.

UNR poll

A poll released Wednesday by the University of Nevada, Reno of about 600 likely voters found that Democratic U.S. Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto is leading in her race, and Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak is leading in his.

The Nevada Election Survey Project 2022 poll, conducted between Oct. 5 and Oct. 19, found 52 percent of Nevadans plan to vote for Cortez Masto and 39 percent for Republican nominee Adam Laxalt, while 5 percent remain undecided.

“Cortez Masto’s large lead reflects less Republican voter enthusiasm for Laxalt’s candidacy compared to (Republican gubernatorial nominee and Clark County Sheriff) Joe Lombardo and other Republican candidates,” a statement from UNR says.

Among the likely Republican voters surveyed, 74 percent said they planned to vote for Laxalt, while 83 percent said they plan to vote for Lombardo. Eighty-eight percent of the Republicans surveyed plan to vote for their Republican House of Representatives candidate, according to the poll.

Out of the other Democrats on the ballot, more Republicans plan to vote for Cortez Masto.

Of those surveyed, 47 percent plan to vote for Sisolak, 45 percent for Lombardo and 5 percent remain undecided for the governor’s race.

The UNR poll, however, is an outlier among recent surveys, which have found both the U.S. Senate and the governor’s race to be extremely close. According to the Real Clear Politics averages, for example, show Laxalt leading Cortez Masto by a half percentage point, 47 percent to 46.5 percent. The governor’s race is also close, with an average of 46.5 percent for Lombardo and 45.3 percent for Sisolak.

Other results

The UNR poll also looked at other statewide races including attorney general, treasurer and secretary of state.

— Attorney general: 37 percent for Democrat Aaron Ford, 25 percent for Republican Sigal Chattah, 32 percent undecided.

— Treasurer: 26 percent for Republican Michele Fiore, 23 percent for Democrat Zach Conine, 44 percent undecided.

— Secretary of state: 29 percent for Democrat Cisco Aguilar, 27 percent for Republican Jim Marchant, 40 percent undecided.

Of the trio of ballot questions, two earned high levels of support, while a third appeared to be trailing:

— Question 1 (Equal Rights Amendment): 72 percent support.

— Question 2 (Minimum wage change): 65 percent support.

— Question 3 (Ranked-choice and open primary): 37 percent support, 27 percent undecided.

UNR’s poll surveyed 586 likely voters for the candidate questions, and 1,365 Nevadans for the ballot questions. The overall margin of error is plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.

Data for Progress poll

A poll released Wednesday by Data for Progress, a progressive think tank and polling firm, conducted between Oct. 13 and Oct. 19 with 819 likely voters, shows Laxalt leading Cortez Masto by 1 point, 49 percent to 48 percent, and Lombardo leading Sisolak by 1 point, 48 percent to 47 percent. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

The poll also asked about issues that are important to voters, and the top issue was the economy, including inflation and the cost of food and gas. Respondents also said the Republican Party was moving too far to the right, and they were concerned about protecting access to legal and safe abortions.

Univision poll

The Univision poll released Tuesday of about 1,000 people, 400 of whom are Latino, puts Cortez Masto ahead of Laxalt by 2 points among Nevada registered voters and up by 33 points among Nevada registered Latino voters. The poll, conducted by BSP Research, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

In the governor’s race, Sisolak has a 2-point lead among Nevada registered voters over Lombardo, and a 34-point lead among Latino voters.

Only 59 percent of Latinos polled in Nevada say they will vote, whereas 68 percent of all Nevada voters polled say they will vote.

Of the Latinos polled, 30 percent said Democrats do not care about issues important to them, while 58 percent said Republicans do not care about the issues important to Latinos.

Fifty-five percent of Latinos say they have been contacted by the Democrats, and 59 percent say they were contacted by Republicans, showing how the Republican Party is working harder to appeal to Latinos in hopes of pulling the historically blue demographic to their party.

But 60 percent of Latinos plan to vote for a Democratic candidate, while 27 percent plan to vote for a Republican, and 8 percent are undecided, showing that Latino voters in Nevada are still heavily blue.

Other polls

A CBS News poll released Oct. 20 puts Laxalt 1 point ahead of Cortez Masto, and a poll from the conservative American Greatness website conducted on Oct. 20 with 550 likely voters shows Laxalt leading Cortez Masto 48.2 to 46.3 percent. The poll also found that in the race for governor, Lombardo led Sisolak 48.5 percent to 42.8 percent. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

Contact Jessica Hill at jehill@reviewjournal.com. Follow @jess_hillyeah on Twitter.