2019 NFL betting breakdown — Week 5
Ted Sevransky, Sportsmemo.com, @teddy_covers
Ravens (2-2) at Steelers (1-3)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Ravens -3, 44
Analysis: The Ravens haven’t covered a point spread since their Week 1 blowout at Miami. Baltimore’s defense has been torched in every game since, allowing 7.0 yards per play. The Steelers’ defense features eight former first-rounders and has dominated stretches of the last two games.
By the numbers: Thirteen of the last 25 meetings between John Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin have been decided by three points or fewer. … The Ravens are 1-5 against the spread in their last six games as a favorite. … The Steelers are 20-8-2 ATS in their last 30 games as an underdog.
Pick: Steelers 21, Ravens 20
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Bears (3-1) vs. Raiders (2-2) at London
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Bears -5, 40½
Analysis: The Raiders went to London last season and lost to Seattle 27-3. They’ll get a chance for redemption against former teammate Khalil Mack. Mack has more sacks and more forced fumbles per game than the entire Raiders defense since he arrived in Chicago.
By the numbers: Jon Gruden is 0-5 ATS off his five previous wins in his second stint as Raiders coach. … Bears games are averaging 28 combined points, lowest in the NFL.
Pick: Bears 21, Raiders 10
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Cardinals (0-3-1) at Bengals (0-4)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Bengals -3, 47
Analysis: The Bengals’ stats are truly ugly, as they’ve been outgained by 1.5 yards per play and 1.7 yards per rushing attempt. Meanwhile, opposing quarterbacks have a 118.4 rating against the Cardinals defense, second worst in the NFL.
By the numbers: Since the start of the 2016 season, Arizona has a 1-9 ATS record in games played in the Eastern time zone. … Winless teams laying a field goal or more after Week 4 have been a profitable subset, 6-3 ATS in the last nine.
Pick: Cardinals 28, Bengals 27
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Jaguars (2-2) at Panthers (2-2)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Panthers -3½, 40
Analysis: The Panthers’ defense ranks No. 1 in the NFL, allowing 4.3 yards per play, and backup QB Kyle Allen has a rating of 118 in his first two starts replacing Cam Newton. Jaguars rookie QB Gardner Minshew has led the team to spread-covering scores on its final drive in each of his first two road starts, but he’s been dealing with a knee injury all week.
By the numbers: Carolina is 0-5 ATS in its last five games as a favorite. … Jaguars coach Doug Marrone is 11-20 ATS coming off a straight-up win.
Pick: Panthers 20, Jaguars 18
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Vikings (2-2) at Giants (2-2)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Vikings -5½, 43½
Analysis: The Vikings have enjoyed two dominant wins at home, but they’ve struggled in both previous road outings, picking up right where they left off last season. QB Kirk Cousins and his receivers haven’t been on the same page. Giants rookie QB Daniel Jones is taking a big step up in defensive class against a Vikings defense that stuffs the run, forcing opposing quarterbacks to beat it.
By the numbers: The Giants are 2-7-1 ATS at home under Pat Shurmur. … The Vikings are an NFL-best 23-9 ATS coming off a loss under Mike Zimmer.
Pick: Vikings 27, Giants 14
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Patriots (4-0) at Redskins (0-4)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Patriots -15½, 42
Analysis: The Patriots have suffered a handful of key, under-the-radar injuries in recent weeks, losing left tackle Isaiah Wynn, fullback James Develin and kicker Stephen Gostkowski. But their plus-6 turnover margin leads the NFL, and their opponent is in shambles, off back-to-back noncompetitive losses. Washington coach Jay Gruden will be starting his third quarterback in five games, going with Colt McCoy this week.
By the numbers: The Patriots are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 on the road and 42-19 ATS in their last 61 games overall. … The Redskins are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games and 2-7 ATS in their last nine tries at home against an opponent with a winning road record.
Pick: Patriots 31, Skins 13
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Jets (0-3) at Eagles (2-2)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Eagles -14, 43½
Analysis: The Jets have scored one offensive touchdown on 39 drives this season, and they’ll be starting third-string QB Luke Falk again this week. Philadelphia has major injury concerns, especially in the secondary. The Eagles haven’t won a game by more than a touchdown this season and haven’t covered a double-digit spread since November 2017.
By the numbers: The Eagles are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games as favorites under Doug Pederson. … During his three years in Miami, Jets coach Adam Gase went 1-4 ATS at plus-11 or higher. … Betting on winless teams coming off a bye has been marginally profitable this decade.
Pick: Eagles 28, Jets 17
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Buccaneers (2-2) at Saints (3-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Saints -3, 45½
Analysis: The Buccaneers are one missed chip-shot field goal from being on a three-game winning streak. They’ve had success against the Saints: 4-4 straight up over the last four years despite being underdogs or pick ’em in seven of those eight meetings. The Saints’ defense has been dominant, allowing the team to win a game last week without scoring a touchdown for the first time in 21 years.
By the numbers: The Saints are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as favorites. … The Buccaneers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five on the road and 4-1 ATS in their past five games against an opponent with a winning record.
Pick: Buccaneers 30, Saints 21
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Falcons (1-3) at Texans (2-2)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Texans -4, 50
Analysis: The Falcons talked about how they were going to clean up their mistakes. They followed that up by losing the turnover battle, committing crucial penalties and failing repeatedly in the red zone in a double-digit home loss to Tennessee. Houston’s Deshaun Watson has taken more sacks than any other quarterback in the NFL this season.
By the numbers: The Falcons have been the worst point spread team in the NFL over the last two years: 6-14 ATS since the start of the 2018 season (not counting their 0-8 ATS preseason record). … The Falcons are 23-9 ATS after a game in which they were held to 14 or fewer points.
Pick: Texans 33, Falcons 20
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Bills (3-1) at Titans (2-2)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Titans -3, 39½
Analysis: Bills QB Josh Allen has been upgraded to probable after dealing with the NFL’s concussion protocol all week following the vicious hit he took against the Patriots. The Titans got their big-play passing game working against Atlanta last week, and they get Pro Bowl left tackle Taylor Lewan back from suspension this week.
By the numbers: The Bills are 5-1 ATS after facing the Patriots since the start of 2016. …. The Titans are 11-5 ATS against an opponent with a winning record.
Pick: Titans 16, Bills 13
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Broncos (0-4) at Chargers (2-2)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/Total: Chargers -6, 44½
Analysis: The Chargers are decimated with injuries, truly a banged up team on offense and defense, even with RB Melvin Gordon expected to return Sunday after a holdout. They haven’t had a winning season ATS as home favorites since leaving San Diego. Reports out of Denver have a locker room in disarray.
By the numbers: The Chargers are trending under in matchups against fellow AFC West foes: The under is 9-2 in their last 11 divisional games. … Teams are 0-for-the-season ATS the week after facing (and blowing out) Miami. … The Broncos are on an 0-8 straight-up, 1-7 ATS run.
Pick: Broncos 27, Chargers 23
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Packers (3-1) vs Cowboys (3-1)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/Total: Cowboys -3½, 47
Analysis: The Packers went 1-7 straight up on the road last season, covering only two point spreads in the process. They managed 10 points in their only road game this season, and they’ll be missing QB Aaron Rodgers’ favorite weapon, WR Davante Adams. But the Cowboys have injury problems on the offensive line with left tackle Tyron Smith out and right tackle La’el Collins questionable.
By the numbers: NFL underdogs are 39-24-1 ATS this season, and road teams are 41-22-1 ATS.
Pick: Packers 17, Cowboys 16
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Colts (2-2) at Chiefs (4-0)
Time: 5:20 p.m.
Line/Total: Chiefs -11, 56
Analysis: Patrick Mahomes didn’t throw a touchdown pass last week, but the Chiefs still scored 34 against Detroit, and their 7.4 yards per play average leads the NFL by a wide margin. But Kansas City has been a profitable home favorite in only one season since 2015, and the Colts’ running game, led by Marlon Mack (questionable, ankle) has the potential to keep the Chiefs offense’ off the field.
By the numbers: The Colts are in ‘playoff revenge’ this week, but road underdogs in a ‘playoff revenge’ situation are 7-21 ATS in the last 28. … Indianapolis is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games against an opponent with a winning record and 38-18 ATS coming off a straight-up loss.
Pick: Chiefs 30, Colts 24
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Monday
Browns (2-2) at 49ers (3-0)
Time: 5:20 p.m.
Line/Total: 49ers -5, 47
Analysis: The 49ers have feasted on the weak while going 3-0, but the defense has notched seven takeaways, matching its NFL-low mark for the 2018 season. Browns defensive coordinator Steve Wilks faced the 49ers twice last season with Arizona, and his defense held San Francisco to a combined 33 points.
By the numbers: The Browns are 0-6 ATS in their last six tries off a win by 14 or more points. … The 49ers are 7-17 ATS in their last 24 home games and 0-7 ATS as home favorites in Levi Stadium since Jim Harbaugh left town.
Pick: 49ers 28, Browns 24
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