2019 NFL betting breakdown — Week 7
Cardinals (2-3-1) at Giants (2-4)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Giants -3, 50½
Analysis: With a losing record, the Cardinals don’t jump off the page as a play, but they’ve covered four of six this season. That includes a solid effort against the Ravens, making them an attractive option against the Giants. Arizona is ninth in total yards and appears to be getting stronger after a 442-yard effort last week against the Falcons. RB Saquon Barkley will play for the Giants, so expect the ticket count to heavily favor the Giants, giving the potential of plus-3½.
By the numbers: Arizona has covered five of its last six meetings in New York.
Pick: Cardinals 28, Giants 24
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Texans (4-2) at Colts (3-2)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Colts -1, 47
Analysis: Both teams have wins in Kansas City in the last two weeks. While the Texans had to take on the Chiefs last week, the Colts were enjoying a bye, giving them plenty of time to get healthy while preparing for their division rivals. With injuries in the Texans’ secondary, expect QB Jacoby Brissett and WR T.Y. Hilton to have a big day for the Colts.
By the numbers: The Colts have covered four of the last five meetings.
Pick: Colts 27, Texans 24
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Dolphins (0-5) at Bills (4-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Bills -17, 41½
Analysis: Even when the Dolphins were decent, they had little success at Buffalo. The Bills have handed Miami losses in six of their last seven visits. The Bills defense has a chance to flex its muscles against a team that has struggled to score. Miami might play a respectable first half, but like in their previous five games, Buffalo should blow it open in the second half. Bills RB Frank Gore should rush for more than 100 yards against his former team.
By the numbers: The home team in this series has covered eight of 11.
Pick: Bills 33, Dolphins 10
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Vikings (4-2) at Lions (2-2-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Vikings -2½, 44
Analysis: Detroit was on its way to beating the Packers for the fifth straight time when the officiating crew decided it saw a phantom hands to the face. The Lions are far more difficult to prepare for than they were last season, and now that QB Mathew Stafford’s wife has the NFL’s attention, they should get the majority of calls to make up for last week’s tragedy.
By the numbers: The Vikings are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games after a straight-up win of more than 14 points.
Pick: Lions 26, Vikings 20
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Raiders (3-2) at Packers (5-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Packers -4½, 47
Analysis: The Packers have beaten Oakland seven consecutive times dating to 1990. In all seven games, the Packers have scored at least 28 points while outscoring Oakland 240-90. The public doesn’t seem to care about history with the opening number of seven bet to 4½. Injuries to WRs Devonte Adams and Geromino Allison, and the fact that the Packers should have lost to the Lions, might have given bettors some pause. But the emergence of WR Allen Lazard recoups my confidence in the Green Bay offense.
By the numbers: The Raiders are 3-13 ATS coming off a straight-up win.
Pick: Packers 27, Raiders 21
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Jaguars (2-4) at Bengals (0-6)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Jaguars -5, 44
Analysis: The Bengals haven’t been a complete embarrassment. After the first quarter last week, they outscored the Ravens 10-9 and had every chance to get early wins against the Seahawks and Bills on the road. Jaguars QB Gardner Minshew looked ordinary last week against the Saints, managing 163 yards passing and an interception. The Bengals have dropped four of their last six by six points or fewer.
By the numbers: The Bengals have covered seven of their last 10 games.
Pick: Bengals 26, Jaguars 16
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Rams (3-3) at Falcons (1-5)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Rams -3, 54
Analysis: The Rams are going to rely on their depth, especially in the secondary, to prevent them from losing their fourth straight game. Atlanta has enough offensive weapons to take advantage of a shallow secondary. The public will be on the Rams, especially with the addition of CB Jalen Ramsey.
By the numbers: The Falcons have covered four straight games against the Rams.
Pick: Falcons 30, Rams 26
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49ers (5-0) at Redskins (1-5)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: 49ers -9½, 40
Analysis: This smells like a trap after the 49ers declared themselves legitimate contenders in the NFC by defeating the defending NFC champion Rams in Los Angeles. The Carolina Panthers visit San Francisco next week in a matchup for NFC positioning. So to think that the 49ers will be completely focused against the Redskins is a bit much to ask. They’ll win this game in the second half, but it will be a struggle.
By the numbers: The 49ers are 4-10 ATS against the NFC.
Pick: 49ers 23, Redskins 14
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Chargers (2-4) at Titans (2-4)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/total: Titans -2½, 41½
Analysis: With the teams being evenly matched and both needing a victory, I tend to favor the better defense. The Titans are turning to Ryan Tannehill at quarterback after finding themselves ranked 27th in points per game (16.3). The Chargers might be exactly whom the Titans need to show up on the schedule after dropping four of their past five games. As bad as the offense has been for Tennessee, the defense has been incredible, ranking eighth in total yards allowed (321.8) to go with their plus-4 turnover ratio.
By the numbers: The favorite is 6-2-1 ATS in the series.
Pick: Titans 28, Chargers 16
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Ravens (4-2) at Seahawks (5-1)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/total: Seahawks -3, 49
Analysis: Seahawks QB Russell Wilson should have impressive numbers against the aggressive Ravens, who blitz on 45 percent of their plays, the NFL’s highest rate. I’ll take the veteran Wilson, who has completed a league-best 73 percent of his passes against the blitz. Ravens opponents have a winning percentage of .300, tying them with the 49ers for the easiest schedule so far.
By the numbers: The Ravens have dropped five straight games ATS.
Pick: Seahawks 27, Ravens 20
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Saints (5-1) at Bears (3-2)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/total: Bears -4, 37
Analysis: Of their last 28 regular-season meetings, 14 have been decided by eight or fewer points, including seven of the last nine games. Even though QB Teddy Bridgewater has done a decent job filling in for Drew Brees, this is not the same Saints offense, and that’s going to be a problem against the league’s third-ranked scoring defense (13.8).
By the numbers: The Bears are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 home games.
Pick: Bears 21, Saints 14
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Eagles (3-3) at Cowboys (3-3)
Time: 5:20 p.m.
Line/total: Cowboys -2½, 49
Analysis: The Cowboys were supposed to run away and hide after a 3-0 start, but the competition got better. Two of the three losses were by two points. Eagles coach Doug Pederson all but guaranteed a win this week, a bold statement on behalf of a team that is ranked 29th against the pass. Expect Dak Prescott to decimate the Eagles secondary.
By the numbers: The Cowboys are 10-1 ATS against the NFC East.
Pick: Cowboys 28, Eagles 24
— — —
Monday
Patriots (6-0) at Jets (1-4)
Time: 5:15 p.m.
Line/total: Patriots -9½, 43½
Analysis: New life might have been breathed into the Jets after handing the Cowboys an unexpected two-point loss last week. New England has won seven straight games against the Jets. But with QB Sam Darnold back in the lineup, this isn’t the same Jets team that the Patriots crushed a few weeks back (30-14). Darnold threw for 338 yards last week and should be even better after a normal practice week following a start. New York is expecting LB C.J. Mosley, sidelined since injuring his groin in the season opener, to return.
By the numbers: The Patriots are 1-5 ATS in New York against the Jets.
Pick: Patriots 24, Jets 21
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— Dana Lane, @DanaLaneSports
