2019 NFL betting breakdown — Week 9
Texans (5-3) vs. Jaguars (4-4) at London
Time: 6:30 a.m.
Line/total: Texans -1½, 46½
Analysis: Both teams are fighting for supremacy in the competitive AFC South. I said before his first start that Gardner Minshew would excel as a starting quarterback based on watching him last year with Washington State. I would keep him starting even when Nick Foles is healthy. The Jaguars will keep this game close or win outright, but the under is my recommendation.
By the numbers: Since 2003, division unders with a closing total from 44½ to 60 from November to January including the postseason are 229-153-3 for a shade under 60 percent with a 16.6 percent return on investment.
Pick: Jaguars 21, Texans 17
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Redskins (1-7) at Bills (5-2)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Bills -10½, 36½
Analysis: My numbers show the Bills are 10 points better, so this spread is right around the number. There’s a sports betting adage that you should bet the lowest total on the board under and the highest total over. I don’t know if there’s any truth to that, but this is by far the lowest total for good reason: The Redskins can’t score, and the Bills’ defense is ranked third in the NFL.
By the numbers: The Bills’ defense has allowed 303.9 yards per game. … The Redskins have the third-worst offense at 261.1 yards per game.
Pick: Bills 21, Redskins 7
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Panthers (4-3) at Titans (4-4)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Panthers -3½, 42
Analysis: This should be a competitive matchup. My numbers show Carolina is three points better. The Titans were gifted a win last week by the officials, and Carolina was demolished by the 49ers.
By the numbers: The Titans are 14-6 straight up and 13-6-1 ATS all time against the NFC South. … The home team in this series is 1-4 ATS. … A possible noteworthy trend shows any 4-3 team is 1-18-1 ATS since 1980 when facing an opponent with a .500 or better record.
Pick: Panthers 24, Titans 23
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Bears (3-4) at Eagles (4-4)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Eagles -4, 41½
Analysis: This is strictly a gut instinct play. The Bears’ offense has been terrible, and the Eagles are coming off their best performance of the season. My numbers show the Eagles are three points better. I’m normally contrarian, so I’ll call for the Bears to keep this close.
By the numbers: The Bears are 2-5 ATS. … The Eagles are 3-5 ATS. … The Eagles have outgained the Bears 125 yards to 83.1 yards on the ground.
Pick: Eagles 21, Bears 18
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Vikings (6-2) at Chiefs (5-3)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Vikings -1½, 48½
Analysis: The status of Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes is uncertain. Assuming Mahomes doesn’t play, I’ll give a slight lean to the Vikings, as QB Kirk Cousins has been spectacular the last four weeks.
By the numbers: The Vikings are 5-0 ATS coming off a Thursday game. … Vikings coach Mike Zimmer is 16-5 ATS against AFC opponents. ….. Cousins leads the NFL in passing yards per attempt at 9.3 yards and is second with a 115.2 passer rating.
Pick: Vikings 28, Chiefs 20
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Jets (1-6) at Dolphins (0-7)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Jets -3, 42½
Analysis: Don’t look now, but Miami has covered its last three games. The Jets are 2-5 ATS, and a case can be made that they are worse than Miami. The only way to go is take the points on the ugly home underdog that might get its first win.
By the numbers: The Jets are the league’s worst offense at 209.6 yards per game, and Miami is the league’s second-worst offense at 254.6 yards per game.
Pick: Dolphins 20, Jets 17
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Colts (5-2) at Steelers (3-4)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Steelers -1, 40½
Analysis: This should be another close game. The Steelers opened a 1-point favorite, but that quickly flipped to the Colts laying 1 or 1½.
By the numbers: My numbers show the Steelers are two points better factoring the standard three-point home-field advantage. … Since Week 4, underdogs with a three-point or better power rating differential are 5-3 ATS. With the same criteria, power rating differentials were 21-15 ATS for 58 percent last season.
Pick: Steelers 28, Colts 21
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Lions (3-3-1) at Raiders (3-4)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/total: Raiders -3, 50½
Analysis: Money seems to be on Oakland, and I don’t agree with that. My numbers show the Lions are one point better. Oakland is playing its first home game since Week 2, and I expect the Raiders to be unfocused because of the long road stretch.
By the numbers: Oakland is 56-80-1 ATS as home favorites since 1990. … Oakland is 6-17 straight up and 7-16 ATS all time against NFC North opponents. …. Oakland is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 home games against NFC opponents.
Pick: Lions 31, Raiders 17
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Buccaneers (2-5) at Seahawks (6-2)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/total: Seahawks -4½, 53
Analysis: I would give the Buccaneers a shot, but QB Jameis Winston keeps making horrible decisions and costing his team wins. He leads the league with 12 interceptions. Compare that to Seattle QB Russell Wilson, who has 17 passing touchdowns with one interception. Tampa Bay appears to be a popular, trendy underdog, but I’m not buying it.
By the numbers: Both teams are relatively close statistically, with Seattle having the slight offensive edge with 382.9 yards per game to the Buccaneers’ 370.7. … The Buccaneers allow 354.4 yards and Seattle 376.1. … The key stat is Tampa Bay at minus-5 turnover ratio compared with Seattle’s plus 7.
Pick: Seahawks 34, Buccaneers 20
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Browns (2-5) at Broncos (2-6)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/total: Browns -4½, 39
Analysis: The way the Browns have played, they cannot be trusted laying points on the road. The reason they are favored is because Denver QB Joe Flacco is injured and first-time starter Brandon Allen fills in. Allen has never taken an NFL snap. This isn’t a Denver endorsement but a Browns fade.
By the numbers: Denver has held each of its last four opponents to their lowest or second-lowest yardage output.
Pick: Broncos 21, Browns 17
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Packers (7-1) at Chargers (3-5)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/total: Packers -4, 48½
Analysis: This is a home game for the Chargers only by name. The overwhelming majority of the seats will be filled with Packers fans. I can’t stand in the way of Green Bay, which might be the NFC’s best team.
By the numbers: Green Bay is 13-1 straight up and 14-0 ATS on the road off a road game when facing nondivision opponents with records at .500 or below. … Green Bay is 6-2 ATS with a turnover ratio of plus 7. … The Chargers are 3-4-1 ATS with a minus-3 turnover ratio.
Pick: Packers 31, Chargers 24
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Patriots (8-0) at Ravens (5-2)
Time: 5:20 p.m.
Line/total: Patriots -3, 44½
Analysis: Everyone should know that betting against the Patriots has been an overall losing proposition. In the Brady-Belichick era, the Patriots are about 60 percent ATS. However, the situation puts me on the Ravens and their dynamic defense.
By the numbers: The Patriots are 2-9 ATS against rested nondivision opponents with records at .500 or better. … The Ravens average 5.5 yards per rush, and the Patriots allow 4.6 yards per rush.
Pick: Patriots 26, Ravens 24
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Monday
Cowboys (4-3) at Giants (2-6)
Time: 5:15 p.m.
Line/total: Cowboys -6½, 48
Analysis: The numbers show a statistical advantage to Dallas in every major category, so I prefer to play the total under.
By the numbers: The Giants are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 at home … The Cowboys are 1-3 ATS in their last four games, but have won and covered the past four games in the series.
Pick: Cowboys 24, Giants 13
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— By Doug Fitz of Systemplays.com. Follow @fitz_doug on Twitter.
