Belmont Stakes horse-by-horse analysis by Las Vegas bookmaker

For the first time ever, the Belmont Stakes will be the first leg of horse racing’s Triple Crown.

Historically the last leg, following the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, and longest race at 1½ miles, the distance will be shortened to 1⅛ miles for Saturday’s 152nd running at Belmont Park in Elmont, New York.

Post time will be at approximately 2:42 p.m. PT on KSNV-3.

DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello likes Tiz the Law, the -125 favorite, to win.

“I don’t like playing horses like that, but I think the horse is tough to beat,” he said. “The horse is much more proven than the others.”

Avello, a longtime horse racing handicapper and formerly of Wynn Las Vegas, recommends using Dr Post, Tap It to Win, Sole Volante and Farmington Road in exactas and trifectas.

“I would use all those horses underneath (Tiz the Law),” he said.

Avello handicaps the field:

Post position, horse, jockey, odds (at Circa Sports):

1. Tap It To Win, Velazquez, +575

“Very shaky at the end of 2019, finishing 10th twice and lost by a combined total of 65 lengths. But 2020 has proved to be much better as he’s won both starts and is looking like a contender. Runs best when he’s close to the pace, so expect to see just that. Tapit was his sire, so we know he can run around the track twice.

2. Sole Volante, Panici, +550

“Sole Volante’s translation is Flying Sun. And flying is exactly what he did in his last race, rallying from sixth place to first as he was four wide down the stretch before winning an optional claimer at one mile. In six starts, he has four wins, a second and a third. He won his last race just 10 days ago, so his trainer must have thought he needed a tune-up, especially after not running for 90 days. Really nice horse.”

3. Max Player, Davis, 17-1

“Lightly raced colt with only three starts, each showing improvement over the last. But he hasn’t had a race in four months. Trainer Linda Rice is ice cold at the current Belmont meet, with no wins as of Friday. He would need another big leap forward to win here. I believe his best performances will be down the road.”

4. Modernist, Alvarado, 20-1

“Cutting back from 1 3/16 miles to 1⅛ miles after his third-place finish in the Louisiana Derby. Very solid workouts lately and has the right jockey (Junior Alvarado) for his running style, which is up near the front of the pack. Could grab a piece but doesn’t look like the winner.”

5. Farmington Road, Castellano, 20-1

“In six starts at five different tracks, only has one maiden special weight victory. He finished fourth in his last race, which was the Grade I Arkansas Derby. But he was no match for the winner, Nadal. A setup of multiple horses vying for the top spot and creating a hot pace would sure help his chances. Great connections here with trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey Javier Castellano.”

6. Fore Left, Ortiz, 45-1

“Has taken part in nine races, more than any other horse in the field. His last race, the UAE 2000 Guineas in Dubai in February, was his best. But he has faltered against enhanced competition. Needs the lead to be effective and probably won’t get it.”

7. Jungle Runner, Gutierrez, 50-1

“Maybe the owners know something we don’t, but after losing his last four races by a combined 76 lengths, how does he belong? Extremely slow horse, but if he happened to win, backers would be rewarded by collecting the largest win payoff in the history of the Belmont Stakes.”

8. Tiz the Law, Franco, -125

“Won two of three races as a 2-year-old and has gotten better as a 3-year-old, winning both starts. The only horse in the field to win a Grade 1 race (Champagne Stakes and Florida Derby) and that has a triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure (100). The horse to beat but expect no more than -125 or even money.”

9. Dr Post, Ortiz Jr., +625

“Also lightly raced but his progression and spacing of performances leading up to this event make him a dangerous foe. One negative is that his speed figures declined in his last race, but pluses include his running style (close to the pace), jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. and trainer Todd Pletcher.

10. Pneumatic, Santana Jr., 15-1

“There are local connections to this one as Winchell Thoroughbreds are the owners. Has a similar pattern to Dr Post and a lot of the same attributes. I certainly wouldn’t condemn anyone for using him underneath in exotics.”