Betting market struggling to find the bottom for Kansas

It’s hard to quantify just how bad the Kansas Jayhawks are this season.

Based on the closing line at Circa Sports, Les Miles’ team is 0-5-1 against the spread with an aggregate margin of -76. Southern Mississippi (1-5 ATS) is the only team that arguably has failed harder against the expectations of the betting market.

Here’s one way to think about it. Louisiana-Monroe (0-7) lost to Texas State, Texas-El Paso and South Alabama by 23.3 points per game. The Warhawks are objectively one of the worst college football teams this season.

ESPN’s SP+ would make Kansas a favorite of less than one point over Louisiana-Monroe at a neutral site. And that rating system is blind to the fact that Kansas running back Pooka Williams, the team’s best player, opted out Oct. 19.

The Sagarin ratings would make Kansas less than a one-point favorite against Princeton and Villanova if those teams were playing this fall.

I thought Oklahoma was undervalued in the market after edging Texas in overtime to avoid a three-game losing streak. The Sooners covered their last two games by an average of 15 points. I still think the market hasn’t caught up to Oklahoma.

Kansas has allowed 38, 47, 47, 38, 55 and 52 points. This is the best offense the Jayhawks will face. Take Oklahoma -37.

Four more plays (home team in CAPS):

CINCINNATI (-13) over Houston: The Cougars are a different team without wide receiver/kick returner Marquez Stevenson. He averages 17.4 yards per catch and 36.3 yards per return, and he’s out against the Bearcats. Houston is averaging just 3.5 yards per carry and isn’t as explosive without him. Cincinnati just beat Southern Methodist and Memphis by a combined score of 91-23 because of the play of quarterback Desmond Ridder, who has found a new gear.

Michigan State (+6½) over IOWA: The Spartans have a pass offense, which is slightly disorienting. Now we’ll find out if coach Mel Tucker is willing to throw occasionally on first down. Iowa wide receiver Ihmir Smith-Marsette is serving a one-game suspension. That’s not helpful for quarterback Spencer Petras, who languished in his first two college starts. Michigan State’s defense has played well on standard downs, which could force the ball into Petras’ hands. This is too many points for a lower-scoring game in which the underdog has the better passing game.

TEMPLE (+17½) over Southern Methodist: The Mustangs have beaten one team by more than two touchdowns: North Texas. SMU has missed receiver Reggie Roberson Jr. and running back TJ McDaniel more than I expected. The Owls are off to an awful start, bottoming out in last week’s 38-3 loss to Tulane. Temple QB Anthony Russo will miss his second straight game, and RB Re’Mahn Davis, the Owls’ most productive offensive player, just left the team. But the market has overreacted. I’m holding my nose and counting on Temple to stick within 17.

ILLINOIS (+7) over Minnesota: The Fighting Illini rank seventh in tackling, according to Pro Football Focus. That’s helpful against a Golden Gophers team that’s running the ball on 62 percent of its snaps. Minnesota’s defense has allowed 3.3 points per possession, 108th out of 115 teams. Illinois probably will be missing numerous players, but the market hasn’t adjusted to how far the Golden Gophers have declined.

Last week: 3-2

Season: 19-21

Christopher Smith of AL.com and BetOnline is providing college football analysis for the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Follow @cfblocksmith on Twitter.