College football forecast: Favorites on upset watch this weekend

A bettor once advised that October was the best time to find live underdogs in college football. The reason?

Midterm exams.

The theory went that student-athletes are busy studying for an economics test rather than the game plan for Saturday. As a result, teams were more vulnerable, especially those that relied heavily on younger players.

I’m not sure whether there are numbers that back up this, but anecdotally it makes sense. There seems to be an inordinate number of upsets or close calls for ranked teams this time of year.

Without checking which teams use semesters instead of the quarter system, it’s underdogs only for this week’s picks, starting with Connecticut, which is catching 9½ points at Ball State.

The Huskies have won two straight after getting beat up by Power Five schools Syracuse, Michigan and North Carolina State and are improving each week under first-year coach Jim Mora.

UConn is expected to be without its top three rushers and will likely lean on a true freshman to carry the load. But there is a difference in strength of schedule between these sides.

Two of Ball State’s three wins came against teams with a combined 2-10 record, and the other was against a Football Championship Subdivision team.

There’s nothing about the environment in Muncie, Indiana, that will intimidate UConn.

Here are four more plays for Saturday:

N.C. State +3½ over Syracuse: The Wolfpack have won three straight in the series and enter as the more battle-tested team thanks to a schedule that included back-to-back games against Clemson and Florida State. Syracuse had an extra week to prepare, but the Orange haven’t seen a defense as good as N.C. State’s this season. This projects to be a close, low-scoring game.

Illinois +6½ over Minnesota: It didn’t take long for Bret Bielema’s formula to produce results at Illinois, which is one win away from bowl eligibility. Fighting Illini fans are going to be bitter when Bielema replaces Kirk Ferentz at Iowa. The Golden Gophers are expected to get back leading rusher Mohamed Ibrahim, and he will test an Illinois defense that has allowed 10 or fewer points in five of its six games.

Oklahoma State +4 over Texas Christian: Both teams rank in the top four nationally in scoring offense, so expect plenty of pyrotechnics. The Cowboys routed TCU in last year’s matchup and should have the advantage in overall depth. Oklahoma State has covered in 15 of its past 20 games. The Horned Frogs’ best win this season doesn’t look as good now that Oklahoma is in free fall.

Georgia Southern +11½ over James Madison: The host Eagles are smarting after two straight road losses, but first-year coach Clay Helton has the offensive firepower to stretch a James Madison defense that is ranked second nationally in yards allowed per game. The Dukes broke into the Top 25 in their first season in the Football Bowl Subdivision and will have to handle the extra publicity.

Last week: 1-3-1

Season: 11-18-1

Contact David Schoen at dschoen@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-5203. Follow @DavidSchoenLVRJ on Twitter.