College football picks: Iowa State on cover streak vs. Oklahoma
The Big 12 got interesting when Oklahoma lost to Baylor last week.
The Sooners had won seven consecutive one-possession games. Their unbeaten record seemed like a farce.
Iowa State coach Matt Campbell is 5-0 ATS against Oklahoma in the regular season, covering by an average of 14.3 points per game.
Iowa State is 1-4 straight up in its past five one-possession games. The Cyclones are due for positive regression in that regard.
Oklahoma freshman quarterback Caleb Williams completed 50 percent of his passes and threw two interceptions in 18 attempts against Baylor. The Sooners let Spencer Rattler, whom Williams replaced this season, try to save the game, and he failed.
Baylor ran for 297 yards, which bodes well for Iowa State running back Breece Hall. The Sooners also field a pass defense that ranks 126th in expected points added per snap.
Take Iowa State +3½ at Oklahoma.
Four more plays (home team in CAPS):
Auburn (-7½) over SOUTH CAROLINA: The Gamecocks are starting their third quarterback, and the Tigers are starting their second. Yes, Auburn moving from Bo Nix to T.J. Finley is a significant downgrade. But this will be an old-school Southeastern Conference game determined in the trenches. South Carolina’s offensive line is 127th in line yards, 115th in stuff rate and 120th in passing downs sack rate. Auburn’s defensive line is eighth in standard downs line yards, 18th in power success rate and 35th in stuff rate. The Tigers have an edge along the line of scrimmage on offense and should run the ball until the Gamecocks’ defense wears down.
ALABAMA (-20½) over Arkansas: The Razorbacks play three down linemen and drop into zone. As such, they’re eighth in the country in plays of 20-plus yards allowed. But they don’t get sacks and tackles for loss. That style fits Alabama perfectly. The Tide offensive line is shaky in coverage. But against an identical defensive style in Mississippi, Alabama built a 42-7 lead. Crimson Tide quarterback Bryce Young is great on short and intermediate passes and has shown the patience to take things underneath. Arkansas runs on 65 percent of its snaps but isn’t effective when it has to throw, especially if Alabama contains Razorbacks receiver Treylon Burks.
Southern Methodist (+11) over CINCINNATI: Since squashing Central Florida by 25, Cincinnati is 0-5 ATS, failing to cover by more than 10 points per game. The Bearcats have three outstanding defensive backs. But even South Florida’s offense, 99th in SP+, managed 28 points against Cincinnati last weekend. SMU is 12th in that same category and scored 55 on UCF last week.
TENNESSEE (-28) over South Alabama: The stats say the Vols’ defensive line is mediocre. But the Jaguars’ offensive line is even worse. Pro Football Focus rates the unit 127th in run blocking and 121st in pass protection. South Alabama rushed for 1.8 yards per carry against Appalachian State and 3.2 yards per carry against Troy in its past two games. Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker has thrown 22 touchdowns against three interceptions while running for 6.5 yards per nonsack carry.
Last week: 3-2
Season: 31-24
Christopher Smith of AL.com is providing college football analysis for the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Follow @CFBlocksmith on Twitter.
