College football picks: Notre Dame-Virginia should be shootout

In the recent past, Notre Dame football games haven’t been a bastion of offensive explosion.

But the Fighting Irish defense has allowed more points this season, 22.4 per game, than it has since 2016. And the Notre Dame offense proved it can rev up its scoring output against porous Atlantic Coast Conference defenses, erupting for 44 points against North Carolina.

Virginia shut out Duke 48-0. Aside from that, its three most recent games ended with 67, 88 and 115 combined points. Cavaliers quarterback Brennan Armstrong is second nationally in passing yards and passing yards per game. The Cavaliers are first in the country with 60 passing plays of 20-plus yards.

Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton will miss another game because of injury. It didn’t matter much in last week’s 34-6 win over Navy. But two weeks ago, North Carolina QB Sam Howell threw for 341 yards, and the Tar Heels scored 34 against the Fighting Irish.

Virginia is 120th in defensive expected points added per snap and 104th in plays of 20-plus yards allowed. Notre Dame has scored 31 to 44 points in seven of its nine games. Kyren Williams is running hard, and Jack Coan is playing clean, efficient football as a passer.

Take Notre Dame-Virginia over 64.

Four more plays (home team in CAPS):

New Mexico State-ALABAMA U67: The is the fourth trip in the past five games for the Aggies, who traveled to Hawaii during the brutal stretch. This is an early body-clock game for New Mexico State, which hasn’t faced a Football Bowl Subdivision team all season. Against the likes of South Carolina State, New Mexico and Hawaii, the Aggies managed to rush for just 3.2 yards per carry. Jonah Johnson’s adjusted completion percentage is last among FBS quarterbacks with at least 20 deep passes. A shutout is possible. If not, Alabama should run the ball behind an average offensive line for the entire second half.

Texas A&M-MISSISSIPPI U57: The Rebels’ personnel and scheme aren’t built to stop the run. Texas A&M’s offensive line is much improved since the start of the season, helping running backs Isaiah Spiller and Devon Achane combine for 1,950 total yards and 12 touchdowns. With QB Zach Calzada banged up, expect a heavy dose of the running game. Injuries have ravaged the Ole Miss offense, cashing four consecutive unders. Texas A&M’s defensive front can overpower the Ole Miss offensive line.

Charlotte (+7) over LOUISIANA TECH: Charlotte has struggled against better teams such as Florida Atlantic and Western Kentucky. But it has shown a knack for winning and covering against comparable competition (Rice, Florida International, Middle Tennessee State, Gardner-Webb). Louisiana Tech is 0-5 ATS as a favorite, losing its past three outright. The Bulldogs can’t run the ball, and the 49ers’ pass offense is pretty decent.

Houston (-24½) over TEMPLE: The Owls are 0-4 ATS since beating Memphis, failing to cover by 23.5 points per game. Losing to Cincinnati by 49 and Central Florida by 42 is one thing. But losing to East Carolina by 42, and scoring a combined 27 points in four games, makes Temple ripe for another blowout. There’s a long list of advanced stats that prove Houston’s superiority, but the Owls losing their past four outings by a margin of 180-27 should be enough proof that the Cougars can win by four touchdowns.

Last week: 3-2

Season: 28-22

Christopher Smith of AL.com is providing college football analysis for the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Follow @CFBlocksmith on Twitter.