College picks: UTEP capable of first bowl win since 1967
Texas-El Paso has an opportunity to win its first bowl game since 1967 and can match its highest win total since 1988 with its eighth victory.
That would be impressive stuff for Miners coach Dana Dimel after a 5-27 start.
I wonder how motivated Fresno State will be to play Texas-El Paso in the New Mexico Bowl just two days after the early signing period, especially after coach Kalen DeBoer and offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb left for Washington.
Fresno State will have a first-time play caller in the bowl game in offensive coordinator Kirby Moore, the younger brother of Dallas Cowboys offensive coordinator Kellen Moore.
Bulldogs quarterback Jake Haener appeared to be headed to Washington as well. But potential eligibility concerns may have helped scuttle those plans. Haener also is close with new Fresno State coach Jeff Tedford.
It remains unclear if Haener will start in the bowl game for Fresno State. And if he does, will things be awkward?
Double-digit underdogs such as UTEP are 57.7 percent ATS in non-playoff bowl games since 2005 and are even better in early games, according to The Action Network.
UTEP’s defense is 19th in expected points added per snap. That’s good enough to keep things close in a game with a total in the low 50s. Take UTEP +11½.
Four more plays (home team in CAPS):
Old Dominion (+9) over Tulsa: The Monarchs’ 6-foot-5-inch freshman Hayden Wolff took over at quarterback midway through the season. After a loss to Western Kentucky, Old Dominion reeled off five consecutive wins and covers behind Wolff. Tulsa lost three assistant coaches, including its defensive coordinator, to Texas Christian and Southern California. The Golden Hurricane played nine one-possession games during the regular season and sport a defense that’s 107th in rushing success rate allowed and 94th in passing success rate allowed.
Kent State (+3) over Wyoming: Kent State’s defense (SP+ No. 117) and Wyoming’s offense (SP+ No. 89) are unwatchable. Kent State’s offense is in the top 10 nationally in rushing success rate and line yards. It should be able to move the ball against a Wyoming team that’s 100th in line yards and 92nd in rushing yards allowed per game. The Cowboys also lost their defensive line coach to Washington State and their starting cornerback to the transfer portal. Wyoming finished the season 2-6 and failed to cover the spread by an average of 5.5 points per game this season.
Missouri-Army U57½: I assume most handicappers will look at Missouri’s rush defense stats, see that the Tigers are facing a service academy and prepare for carnage. But the Tigers held their last four SEC opponents to an average of only 3.5 yards per carry. Missouri ran on 63 percent of its snaps in its last five games and is holding an “open quarterback competition.” Tigers starting QB Connor Bazelak’s backups run way more often than he does.
Memphis (-7) over Hawaii: A scathing media report claimed that Hawaii’s players are blaming coach Todd Graham for verbal abuse, favoritism and “killing their love of football.” Starting QB Chevan Cordeiro and starting running back Dae Dae Hunter are in the transfer portal. Hawaii’s offense can’t move the ball without them. Backup QB Brayden Schager has thrown for 5.7 yards per attempt, two touchdowns and five interceptions. The Tigers should be able to throw against a Hawaii pass defense that Pro Football Focus grades No. 111 in the country.
Last week: 2-3
Season: 35-34-1
Christopher Smith of AL.com is providing college football analysis for the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Follow @CFBlocksmith on Twitter.
