‘It’s so hard to bet on the NFL’: Upsets, epic comeback highlight Week 10

In hindsight, it should have been so easy for bettors Sunday to win money on the NFL.

All three favorites covered in the afternoon and all three games went over the total as the Lions (-8, 48½) crushed the Commanders 44-22, the Seahawks (-7, 44½) whipped the Cardinals 44-22 and the Rams (-5½, 49½) rolled past the 49ers 42-26.

Bettors could’ve placed a simple six-team parlay composed of the favorites and overs that would’ve paid 40-1. Coulda, woulda, shoulda. Didn’t.

Gamblers can be forgiven for not having the faith or foresight to fire that parlay after a brutal morning for bettors that saw favorites go 2-5-1 against the spread with four outright wins by underdogs.

“The morning was probably one of our best mornings of the year,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “But the afternoon was probably one of our worst afternoons of the year.”

The Dolphins pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the season in a 30-13 blowout of the Bills as 8-point home underdogs. Miami had lost seven straight meetings with Buffalo and 14 of its last 15 before producing three takeaways and three sacks en route to its wire-to-wire win.

“The Dolphins was definitely the best game for us, without a question,” Westgate vice president of race and sports John Murray said. “I can’t really wrap my head around Miami. A couple weeks ago, they go to Atlanta on the road and just crush the Falcons (34-10). Other weeks, they look like one of the worst teams in the league. I don’t know how you get a handle on the Dolphins.

“It’s just a good example of why it’s so hard to bet on the NFL.”

The other big game for the books and bad game for bettors was the Saints dealing the Panthers a 17-7 home loss. Carolina was a rare favorite of 5½ points and the most popular selection in the Circa Survivor contest, where 490 entries were eliminated.

Exactly 1,000 entries remain in the hunt for the $18.7 million prize after 769 were knocked out in NFL Week 10, including 261 on the Bills and one on the Jaguars in extremely painful fashion.

Miracle cover

Bettors who backed the Texans, who ranged from 1½-point underdogs to 1½-point favorites over Jacksonville and closed as consensus 1-point favorites, should consider buying a Powerball ticket. Because they were extremely lucky to cover in a 36-29 win.

Houston trailed 29-10 early in the fourth quarter before exploding for 26 unanswered points. Davis Mills threw two touchdown passes in the fourth quarter and scrambled 14 yards for the go-ahead score with 31 seconds left to give the Texans a 30-29 lead. But many Houston bettors were still looking at a push or a loss when the Texans’ 2-point conversion attempt failed.

Until the final play of the game when Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence was strip sacked by Will Anderson. Houston defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins recovered the fumble and returned it 32 yards for a touchdown with no time remaining for a miracle cover that resulted in big swings at sportsbooks.

“The Texans’ comeback win was one of those classic bad beat moments for the book,” Caesars Sportsbook head of football Joey Feazel said in an email. “What looked like a solid book result turned into a big swing for the public, and was especially painful when it hit both pregame and in-play markets.”

The improbable finish was a swing in favor of the book at the Westgate, which would’ve lost on both sides if Houston won by one.

“That was our lucky moment of the day because we were in a position to get middled there and we were able to get out of getting middled because of that last-second touchdown,” Murray said. “Everybody complains about their bad beats, whether you’re on our side of the counter or the customer … and I’m part of that myself. But certainly that was one that we’ll remember and say, ‘Yeah, that sure was lucky.’ ”

Favorites are 6-6-1 ATS in Week 10 and overs are 7-6.

Underdogs

The Jets (+2) beat the Browns 27-20 and the Patriots (+2½) upset the Buccaneers 28-23 on the road. The Giants (+4½) covered but lost 24-20 to the Bears after blowing a 10-point fourth-quarter lead.

Favorites

Detroit delivered one of the best results of the day for the betting public, which also cashed in on the Ravens (-4½, beat Vikings 27-19).

“The Ravens are becoming a public darling with Lamar (Jackson) back in form,” Feazel said. “Their momentum is palpable, and it’s no surprise that they were a big win for customers.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.