NBA unders a moneymaker for bettors this season

Life’s too short to bet the under.

That popular sports betting axiom might be true in the grand scheme of things. But betting under on NBA games has been a big moneymaker so far this season.

Entering Monday, NBA unders were 148-102-3 overall for a 59.2 winning percentage. If a bettor had wagered $110 to win $100 on the under of every NBA game, they would be up $3,580.

Only five teams have more overs than unders, with the Los Angeles Lakers leading the way with an 11-7 over-under record. Fourteen teams are cashing unders at a clip of at least 62.5 percent, including four at better than 70 percent in the Oklahoma City Thunder (12-4, 75 percent), New Orleans Pelicans (13-5, 72.2), Milwaukee Bucks (12-5, 70.6) and Cleveland Cavaliers (12-5, 70.6).

Offensive numbers are down across the board in the NBA. The total points per game has dropped from 112.1 last season to 106.8, the lowest average in four years. The league field goal percentage of 44.8 is the lowest in 11 years, the 3-point field goal percentage of 34.4 is the lowest in 24 years and the 19.8 free throw attempts per game is the lowest average in NBA history.

As scoring has dropped, so have the totals, or over-unders for each game, at Las Vegas sportsbooks.

“A lot of the totals are now around 215 on average, with some in the low 220s. Before the season, when we first put up the lines, we had a lot in the 220s and some in the 230s,” Westgate SuperBook vice president of risk Jeff Sherman said. “They’ve definitely dipped by an average of about 10 points of what we expected early in the season.”

Some players have blamed the NBA’s new Wilson basketball for their poor shooting this season after the league parted ways with Spalding after 38 years.

But Sherman and many other observers attribute the dip in scoring, and especially in free throw attempts, to the new rule designed to prevent players from using “abnormal, abrupt or overt” non-basketball moves to draw fouls.

This includes an offensive player launching himself into a defender or kicking out his leg. Those moves have largely been no calls or offensive fouls this season.

“Previously, those rules were conducive to players getting to the free throw line,” Sherman said. “It’s just not getting players to the free throw line like it used to where you’d get a stoppage of the clock and the opportunity to add points.”

Star players such as James Harden and Trae Young who thrived under the old rules have seen their scoring averages and free-throw attempts drop this season. Harden is averaging 21.2 ppg after averaging 24.6 last season and Young’s free-throw attempts per game have plummeted from 8.7 to 5.6.

“Harden’s prop number now is at 21.5 points on average where last year it was 25.5 points,” Sherman said.

Sherman dismisses the notion that the NBA’s new Wilson ball has been a big factor in the drop in scoring and unders cashing at a high rate.

“It wouldn’t take these guys too long to adjust if there’s a subtlety to it,” he said.

Likewise, Sherman wouldn’t advise blindly betting NBA unders the rest of the season.

“You’d expect it to correct itself over the course of the season,” he said. “The betting market has responded where the numbers are less than the previous season.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.