NFL betting breakdown: Week 10
BETTING BREAKDOWN
Chip Chirimbes, TheAplay.com, Chipwins.com, pickandparlays.net, VegasInsider.com
Jaguars (2-6) at Colts (4-5)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Colts -10, 47½
Analysis: Indianapolis leads the NFL in takeaways with 20, and Jacksonville has 14 giveaways and the second-worst turnover margin in the league at minus-9. It looks as if it’s going to be a long afternoon for the Jaguars and rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence.
By the numbers: Jacksonville, coming off its 9-6 upset of Buffalo as a 16-point underdog, is 1-4 ATS after a straight-up win and 0-4 ATS after a cover. … The home team is 5-1-1 ATS in the past seven meetings. … The Colts are 4-0 ATS vs. teams with a losing record.
Pick: Colts 30, Jaguars 19
Browns (5-4) at Patriots (5-4)
Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8
Line/total: Patriots -2½, 45
Analysis: Both teams are in the middle of the playoff hunt, and this matchup might have tiebreaker implications. The Patriots are 1-4 at home. The Browns are getting the job done with the NFL’s No. 3 total defense, allowing just 309.7 yards per game, and the No. 3 rushing defense (84.8 ypga).
By the numbers: Cleveland is 5-1 ATS in its past six games as a road underdog. But it’s on an 11-29-2 spread slide against teams with winning records. … The Patriots are 3-9 ATS after an ATS win.
Pick: Patriots 31, Browns 27
Falcons (4-4) at Cowboys (6-2)
Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5
Line/total: Cowboys -8, 54½
Analysis: With Dallas trailing Denver 30-0 in the fourth quarter last week, Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott insisted that he remain in the game because he needed the work. The Falcons couldn’t put in enough work to avoid the wrath of Dallas this week.
By the numbers: Atlanta is 11-5 ATS in its past 16 road games and 1-4 ATS after a straight-up win. … The Cowboys are on a 5-1 cover run at home and are 5-0 ATS vs. the NFC.
Pick: Cowboys 41, Falcons 23
Bills (5-3) at Jets (2-6)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Bills -12½, 47
Analysis: It will be a Mike White “Whiteout,” as the Jets faithful will be out in full force for this AFC East matchup. Is something wrong with the Bills? They lost 9-6 to the lowly Jaguars last week, and their five wins have come against teams with a combined 11-25 record. But playing the Jets seems to cure all ills.
By the numbers: Buffalo is 5-1-1 ATS vs. teams with losing records and 13-5-1 ATS overall. … The Jets are 4-1 ATS as home underdogs but 2-7 ATS in its past nine games overall.
Pick: Bills 36, Jets 24
Saints (5-3) at Titans (7-2)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Titans -3, 44
Analysis: After taking a Week 1 beatdown by Arizona, the Titans pounded the league for six weeks until NFL rushing leader Derrick Henry went down with a potential season-ending injury. And then, without Henry last week, Tennessee pounded the Rams in a 28-16 upset as 7½-point underdogs. But the Saints might surprise the home team here.
By the numbers: The Saints are on an extended 36-17 cover streak as underdogs and are 23-8 ATS in their past 31 games as road underdogs. … Tennessee has won and covered its past five games. … The road team is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings.
Pick: Saints 27, Titans 23
Buccaneers (6-2) at Football Team (2-6)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Buccaneers -9½, 51
Analysis: This could be one of those games in which Tampa Bay goes through the motions, as it has played mediocre on the road, going 2-2 with an 0-4 ATS record. But something has to give, as Washington has been bad at home, going 1-3 and 0-4 ATS.
By the numbers: The underdog is 8-1-2 ATS in the past 11 meetings. … The Buccaneers, coming off a loss to the Saints before their bye, are 5-1 ATS after a loss. But they’re 0-5 ATS in their past five road games. … The Football Team is on an 0-5 spread slide as underdogs.
Pick: Buccaneers 27, Football Team 23
Lions (0-8) at Steelers (5-3)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Steelers -8, 42½
Analysis: Pittsburgh should cover on coaching alone, but the Lions will claw for 60 minutes seeking their first win. The Steelers are working on a short week after a physical battle against the Bears on “Monday Night Football.” Detroit has had an extra week to recover from its 44-7 blowout loss to Philadelphia, and it’s 14-6 ATS after a double-digit home loss.
By the numbers: The Lions are 3-12-1 ATS in their past 16 games in November. … Pittsburgh is on an 0-8 spread slide as a favorite and 0-7 ATS as a home favorite.
Pick: Lions 23, Steelers 22
Vikings (3-5) at Chargers (5-3)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/total: Chargers -3, 53½
Analysis: The Vikings find more ways to lose than any other team. The Chargers beat the sharp money in last week’s win at Philadelphia. The sharps are on Los Angeles this week, but the Chargers will fall short.
By the numbers: Minnesota is 41-18 ATS after a straight-up loss, 7-3 ATS as an underdog and has covered the past four meetings. But the Vikings are on a 4-11 spread slide overall. … Los Angeles is riding a 9-3 cover streak but is 5-11-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Pick: Vikings 34, Chargers 33
Panthers (4-5) at Cardinals (8-1)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/total: Cardinals -10½, 44
Analysis: The Panthers lost quarterback Sam Darnold, who threw three interceptions in last week’s home loss to the Patriots, to a shoulder injury. Even with star running back Christian McCaffrey back for Carolina, the Panthers’ defense can’t overcome their offensive shortcomings.
By the numbers: Carolina is 7-1 ATS as a road underdog and has covered the past five meetings. … Arizona is riding a 6-1 ATS run, and the home team has covered seven of the past eight meetings. But the Cardinals are on a 9-21 spread slide as home favorites.
Pick: Cardinals 23, Panthers 13
Seahawks (3-5) at Packers (7-2)
Time: 1:25 p.m., KLAS-8
Line/total: Packers -3½, 50½
Analysis: Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers was to be activated Saturday after missing last week’s game against the Chiefs because of COVID-19. The Seahawks welcome back QB Russell Wilson, who missed three games with a finger injury. Seattle is a live underdog with a good shot at a win. All the drama surrounding Rodgers will take its toll on the Packers.
By the numbers: Seattle is 0-6-1 ATS at Lambeau Field. But the Seahawks have covered their past two road games and are on an 11-2 cover streak as road underdogs. … Green Bay has covered eight straight games, and the home team is 4-0-1 ATS in the past five meetings.
Pick: Seahawks 26, Packers 23
Eagles (3-6) at Broncos (5-4)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/total: Broncos -1½, 45½
Analysis: The Eagles couldn’t get off the ground last week against the Chargers, and the Broncos rode roughshod over the Cowboys. Denver dominated Dallas in a 30-16 upset, but this week won’t be so easy.
By the numbers: The Eagles are 3-8 ATS on the road. … The Broncos are 4-10-1 ATS as home favorites.
Pick: Eagles 37, Broncos 17
Chiefs (5-4) at Raiders (5-3)
Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3
Line/total: Chiefs -2½, 52½
Analysis: The Raiders are setting records for attrition for players not even on the field after releasing receiver Henry Ruggs and cornerback Damon Arnette, their 2020 first-round draft picks, the past two weeks. Two-time defending AFC champion Kansas City has struggled to regain its form this season. The Raiders are in need of a strong rebound after last week’s 23-16 loss at the Giants as 3-point favorites.
By the numbers: The Chiefs are 4-16 ATS in their past 20 games and 2-8 ATS as favorites. … The Raiders covered both meetings last season, and the home team is 7-2 ATS in the past nine meetings. … Las Vegas is on a 5-1 ATS run as an underdog and 4-1 ATS as a home underdog.
Pick: Raiders 34, Chiefs 31 (OT)
Rams (7-2) at 49ers (3-5)
Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN
Line/total: Rams -3½, 49
Analysis: Los Angeles’ home loss to Tennessee last week wasn’t pretty. After opening the season with two road wins, San Francisco has lost five of six while going 1-5 ATS. The Niners are 0-4 at home after getting whipped 31-17 last week by a Cardinals team missing QB Kyler Murray and wideout DeAndre Hopkins.
By the numbers: The Rams are 3-8 ATS in the past 11 meetings. But they are 12-3-1 ATS after a straight-up loss and 11-5-1 ATS vs. the NFC West. … San Francisco is 5-2 as a home underdog, and the underdog is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings.
Pick: 49ers 26, Rams 24
