NFL betting breakdown: Week 10

NFL BREAKDOWN

Scott Kellen, SixthSenseSports.com, @SixthSenseNFL

Colts (3-5-1) at Raiders (2-6)

Time: 1:05 p.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Raiders -4½, 41½

Analysis: These two teams are a mess. Indianapolis hired Jeff Saturday to take over as interim coach, but he has never coached in the NFL or college. The Raiders put TE Darren Waller and WR Hunter Renfrow on injured reserve this week. The Raiders sport the league’s 10th-best rushing offense but will face a Colts rush defense that is No. 2 in my rankings. The Raiders have the league’s No. 31 pass defense, but fortunately, they get to face quarterback Sam Ehlinger, who averages a horrible 3.7 yards per play and a 17.5 percent sack rate in two starts.

By the numbers: Since Derek Carr joined the Raiders, they’re 2-7 against the spread as home favorites of four points or more.

Pick: Raiders 24, Colts 20

Seahawks (6-3) vs. Buccaneers (4-5), Munich, Germany

Time: 6:30 a.m., NFLN

Line/total: Bucs -2½, 45

Analysis: There could be a little hope for Tampa Bay’s offense this week against a Seattle defense that is slightly below average. The Bucs have averaged 19 points per game against below-average defenses this season. The Seahawks will face a very good Tampa Bay defense. Seattle has averaged only 12 ppg against above-average defenses this season. The Bucs are No. 1 in the league fewest pressures allowed, partly because Tom Brady gets rid of the ball so quickly. Seattle is in the middle of the pack in applying pressure, so Brady should have time to find his receivers. Tampa Bay ranks last in the league in my rushing rankings but faces a Seattle rush defense that ranks No. 22. Seattle’s No. 7 passing attack will face a challenge this week against the Bucs’ No. 5 pass defense.

By the numbers: Winning teams that have covered at least 67 percent of their games are 19-48-1 ATS since 2002 against losing teams that have covered 25 percent of their games or less. Regression is due for both teams, and that favors the Bucs.

Pick: Buccaneers 28, Seahawks 21

Jaguars (3-6) at Chiefs (6-2)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Chiefs -9½, 51

Analysis: This is a matchup of teams with above-average offenses and below-average defenses. Kansas City was forced into a street fight in last week’s 20-17 win over Tennessee. This week’s game should be more to the liking of Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes. Kansas City is No. 2 in my passing offense rankings, and Jacksonville ranks ninth.

By the numbers: The Jaguars are averaging 24 ppg against below-average defenses this season. … Against the two best offenses Kansas City has faced this season, it has allowed 24 points to the Chargers and 29 to the Raiders. … The Chiefs average 34 ppg against below-average defenses. … Jacksonville has faced only one good offense this season in Philadelphia, which scored 29 points.

Pick: Chiefs 33, Jaguars 24

Texans (1-6-1) at Giants (6-2)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Giants -4½, 41

Analysis: The Giants’ No. 7 rushing offense will take on the Texans’ No. 31 rushing defense. New York is 6-2 but hasn’t won a game by more than eight points. The Giants’ passing offense ranks last in the league, but it faces a Houston pass defense that ranks 25th.

By the numbers: The Giants are 4-0 ATS against losing teams. … Houston is 0-3 ATS against winning teams.

Pick: Giants 22, Texans 18

Saints (3-6) at Steelers (2-6)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Saints -1, 40½

Analysis: Pittsburgh has been competitive when not facing the best teams in the league. The Steelers also get back LB T.J. Watt for the first time since Week 1. The Saints are still missing CB Marshon Lattimore and will be without LB Pete Werner as well. This is a tough assignment for New Orleans, which is coming off a short week after losing to Baltimore on Monday night. The Steelers are coming off their bye week and are a great teaser opportunity.

By the numbers: Pittsburgh is riding a 10-3 under run as a home underdog and is 8-3-2 ATS in that role. … New Orleans is 1-3 straight-up on the road this season, with its only win by one point over Atlanta.

Pick: Steelers 18, Saints 17

Lions (2-6) at Bears (3-6)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Bears -3, 48½

Analysis: Both teams are in the top 10 in the league in rushing offense and in the bottom five in run and pass defense. The biggest difference is that the Lions rank fifth in yards per pass, while the Bears’ pass offense is 29th in the league. Chicago recently traded edge rusher Robert Quinn and LB Roquan Smith.

By the numbers: Unders are 29-13-1 in divisional games this season.

Pick: Bears 23, Lions 21

Browns (3-5) at Dolphins (6-3)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Dolphins -3½, 49

Analysis: The Dolphins are a fun team to watch and extremely explosive on offense, but the bottom line is their offense is overshadowing a defense that is well below average. Since Week 2, Miami hasn’t won a game by more than six points. The Dolphins are coming off back-to-back wins over the Lions and Bears by a total of seven points. Now they get a Cleveland team that’s getting healthier and has only one loss by more than three points.

By the numbers: Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa is 5-1 ATS as a home favorite.

Pick: Dolphins 24, Browns 22

Vikings (7-1) at Bills (6-2)

Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: Bills -6½, 44½

Analysis: Most of the focus is on the status of Buffalo QB Josh Allen, who is questionable with an elbow injury. The line moved back up to 6½ on Saturday on reports that indicate Allen will start. But the Bills also will be without safety Jordan Poyer and edge rusher Greg Rousseau. Case Keenum will step in if Allen can’t go. Keenum led the Vikings to the NFC title game in 2018. He is more than capable when surrounded with good talent, especially against a Minnesota pass defense that is eighth-worst in the league. Winds could be in the 15 mph range, but this game stands a good chance to go over the total, which has dropped because of the Allen news. Plenty of offensive talent on both sides, and the Buffalo defense is hurting.

By the numbers: The Bills are fifth in the league in generating explosive pass plays. … Minnesota is sixth-worst in defending explosive pass plays.

Pick: Vikings 26, Bills 22

Broncos (3-5) at Titans (5-3)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Titans -2½, 38½

Analysis: Tennessee QB Ryan Tannehill is listed as questionable, but the real news is all the Titans defenders that are out, including DT Jeffery Simmons and LB Bud Dupree. Denver has allowed an average of just 12 points to below-average offenses this season. Tennessee is fifth-worst in the league at generating explosive pass plays, while the Broncos rank No. 3 at defending explosive pass plays. Denver is a great teaser option this week.

By the numbers: These two teams have a combined 13-3 under mark this season.

Pick: Broncos 21, Titans 20

Cardinals (3-6) at Rams (3-5)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: Rams -3, 40

Analysis: Both QBs are questionable with Matthew Stafford in concussion protocol and Kyler Murray dealing with a hamstring issue. If Murray can’t go, he’ll be replaced by Colt McCoy, who was 2-1 last season for the Cardinals. Both teams have played tough schedules, but Arizona is 3-1 ATS against losing teams, with the lone loss to the Rams, 20-12, at home.

By the numbers: Arizona is 15-4-2 ATS as a regular-season road underdog under coach Kliff Kingsbury. … Los Angeles is 3-1 straight-up and 2-2 ATS against teams below .500.

Pick: Rams 26, Cardinals 23

Cowboys (6-2) at Packers (3-6)

Time: 1:25 p.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: Cowboys -4½, 43½

Analysis: Two weeks ago, Dallas defeated Detroit 24-6 at home. The Lions fumbled on the Cowboys’ 1-yard line and were -4 in net turnovers. Dallas turned two of those turnovers into 14 points. Last week, the Packers dominated the Lions at the line of scrimmage but lost 15-9 largely because of three Aaron Rodgers interceptions deep in Detroit territory. The point is that it’s possible Green Bay plays Dallas extremely tough in this game. And the Packers are getting points.

By the numbers: Rodgers is 2-0 ATS as a home underdog over the last 12 years, with a win over the Rams last season and a tie against the Vikings in 2018.

Pick: Cowboys 25, Packers 24

Chargers (5-3) at 49ers (4-4)

Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3

Line/total: 49ers -7½, 45

Analysis: San Francisco is sixth in the league in fewest pressures allowed, while the Chargers are No. 23 in creating pressure. Los Angeles will have a tough time running the ball with its No. 29 rushing game against a 49ers rush defense that I rate as the best in the league. San Francisco’s ground game has been average, but it should get going against a Chargers run defense that ranks last in the league. Los Angeles will once again be without WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.

By the numbers: Chargers QB Justin Herbert is 4-1 ATS as a road underdog of four points or more.

Pick: 49ers 26, Chargers 20

Commanders (4-5) at Eagles (8-0)

Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN

Line/total: Eagles -11, 43½

Analysis: Washington is No. 25 in the league in allowing pressure, while the Eagles are No. 8 in creating pressure. The Commanders are -4 in net turnovers this season while Philadelphia leads the NFL at +15.

By the numbers: As a road underdog under coach Ron Rivera, Washington has played eight games against average to above-average teams with a .500 record or better. Washington has lost each game by an average of almost 16 points. … Eagles QB Jalen Hurts is 7-0 straight-up as a home favorite and 6-0-1 ATS, with each win by an average of 14 points. … Philadelphia has a 6-1 over record in those games, scoring at least 24 points in each contest.

Pick: Eagles 29, Commanders 14