NFL betting breakdown: Week 15

NFL BREAKDOWN

Mark Franco, VegasInsider.com, FrancoSports.com

Patriots (7-6) at Raiders (5-8)

Time: 1:05 p.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: Raiders -1, 44½

Analysis: The Raiders had high expectations to begin the season, but they never came to fruition. They have played like a bottom-of-the-barrel team most of the season. Now we’ll see if the Raiders are playing for roster spots for next season under coach Josh McDaniels and general manager Dave Ziegler. The Patriots are off a win at Arizona and stayed on the West Coast this week. New England opened as a 1-point favorite, but the line has flipped to the Raiders after sharp money backed the Silver and Black.

By the numbers: New England is 12-3-1 against the spread in its last 16 games playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. … The Patriots are 36-15 ATS against teams with a losing record. … The Raiders are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in December. … The Patriots are 5-1 ATS in the teams’ last six meetings.

Pick: Patriots 26, Raiders 20

Falcons (5-8) at Saints (4-9)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Saints -4, 43

Analysis: The Saints have had a disappointing season, and the Falcons have not been much better. Atlanta is turning to rookie QB Desmond Ridder to try to improve the offense. The Falcons suffered a 1-point loss to the Saints in Week 1 and have lost five other games by fewer than seven points. Both teams are coming off a bye. Three of the last four losses for the Saints have been by 10 points or more.

By the numbers: The Falcons are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games against a team with a losing home record, but they’re on a 1-6 spread slide overall. … The Saints are 0-4 ATS following a bye week and are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win. … The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.

Pick: Falcons 22, Saints 17

Lions (6-7) at Jets (7-6)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Jets -1, 43½

Analysis: The Lions have been playing solid football, winning five of their last six games. The Jets have lost their last two and four of six. Dan Campbell has proven himself as a very good coach that has gotten the most out of this Detroit team. The Lions are physical and have one of the best offenses in the league. Jets QB Mike White is out, and Zach Wilson will return as starter. The Lions have already won in East Rutherford, New Jersey, this season, beating the Giants 31-18 on Nov. 20. While Detroit is not as good on the road, I still like it to grab a win and keep competing for a playoff spot.

By the numbers: The Lions are riding a 6-0 ATS streak overall and a 4-0 spread run in December. … Detroit’s defense has been improving, holding foes to an average of 20 points per game over the past six weeks. … The over is 4-1 in the teams’ last five meetings.

Pick: Lions 27, Jets 20

Chiefs (10-3) at Texans (1-11-1)

Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Chiefs -14, 49

Analysis: This seems like a total mismatch on paper, but the Texans gave Dallas a heck of a game last week before losing in the final minute. The Chiefs have won six of their last seven but are only 4-8-1 ATS overall. Patrick Mahomes was picked off three times last week but still threw for 352 yards and three TDs in a 34-28 win over Denver. Kansas City also is running the ball better. I’d lay the big fat number or pass.

By the numbers: The Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games against a team with a losing home record. … The Texans are 7-18-2 ATS following an ATS win and are on an 8-17-2 spread slide in December. … Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings in Houston.

Pick: Chiefs 37, Texans 17

Eagles (12-1) at Bears (3-10)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Eagles -8½, 49

Analysis: The Philadelphia Eagles are the best team in the NFL on both sides of the football. The Eagles clinched a playoff berth with their rout of the Giants last week but have bigger hopes to finish the season as the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The Bears’ offense has been less than mediocre, but QB Justin Fields can make things happen with his legs. Philadelphia’s defense leads the way here, so I’m willing to lay the big number with the Eagles.

By the numbers: Philadelphia is 8-3 ATS following a straight-up win and is on a 4-0-1 spread streak in December. … Chicago is on an 0-6 ATS slide at home against teams with a winning road record and is 6-21 ATS against the NFC. … The Eagles are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.

Pick: Eagles 37, Bears 19

Steelers (5-8) at Panthers (5-8)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Panthers -3, 37½

Analysis: The Panthers are just a game out of first place in the weakest division in the league in the NFC South. Steelers rookie QB Kenny Pickett will be on the sideline again, and that leaves Mitch Trubisky to start after he threw three interceptions in last week’s loss to the Ravens.

By the numbers: The Steelers are 6-1 straight-up against Carolina. … Pittsburgh is 4-1-1 ATS against a team with a losing record. … The Panthers are 4-1 ATS following an ATS win. … The Steelers are on a 12-5 under run in December. … Carolina is on a 5-1 under uptick at home.

Pick: Panthers 19, Steelers 17

Cowboys (10-3) at Jaguars (5-8)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Cowboys -4, 47½

Analysis: Dallas will go for its fifth straight win when it travels to Jacksonville. The Cowboys have been led by the dynamic running back duo of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard, who have combined for 1,610 yards and 18 touchdowns. Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence has been improving every week. Most expect this to be a close game, but I have the Cowboys to win and cover on the road.

By the numbers: Dallas is 6-0 ATS following an ATS loss and is riding an 8-1 cover run in December. … The Cowboys are 11-3 ATS on the road. … The Jaguars are 5-11-1 ATS following a straight-up win and are 1-8 ATS in December. … The over is 5-0 in the last five meetings.

Pick: Cowboys 33, Jaguars 17

Cardinals (4-9) at Broncos (3-10)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Broncos -2, 36

Analysis: When the NFL schedule was released, both teams expected this game to have playoff implications, but both have performed below expectations. Both teams will start backup QBs, with Denver starting Brett Rypien and Arizona going with Colt McCoy. This is one of the ugliest games of the week, as neither team has anything to play for.

By the numbers: The Cardinals are 0-4 ATS in December. … The Broncos are 1-7 ATS following an ATS win. … The over is 6-0 in the last six meetings.

Pick: Broncos 27, Cardinals 23

Titans (7-6) at Chargers (7-6)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: Chargers -3, 46½

Analysis: The Chargers proved a point in last week’s 23-17 win over the Dolphins when their defense played great with some backups and shut down Miami’s explosive offense. The Titans are on a three-game losing streak. They have not forced a turnover in four games and have given up 71 points in their last two.

By the numbers: Tennessee is 14-5 ATS on the road against a team with a winning home record. … Los Angeles is 4-0 ATS after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in its previous game. … The Titans are on a 4-0 over run following an ATS loss. … The Chargers are on a 7-3 over uptick at home. … Tennessee is 1-8-2 ATS in the teams’ last 11 meetings.

Pick: Chargers 23, Titans 17

Bengals (9-4) at Buccaneers (6-7)

Time: 1:25 p.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Bengals -3½, 45

Analysis: Bengals QB Joe Burrow takes on Tom Brady and the Buccaneers for the first time in his career. After losing the first two games of the season, the Bengals have won nine of their last 11. Cincinnati has the NFL’s fifth-ranked total offense (371.7 ypg) and sixth-ranked scoring offense (25.8 ppg). Tampa Bay is 28th in scoring, averaging a paltry 17.2 ppg.

By the numbers: The Bengals are 14-3 ATS following a straight-up win, 17-4 ATS following an ATS win and 13-3 ATS on the road. … The Buccaneers are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games.

Pick: Bengals 33, Bucs 20

Giants (7-5-1) at Commanders (7-5-1)

Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3

Line/total: Commanders -4½, 40

Analysis: These NFC East foes played to a 20-20 tie three weeks ago. The winner of this game that was flexed to Sunday night could very well determine who gets a wild-card spot. The difference in this one will be the Washington defense.

By the numbers: The Giants are 5-0 ATS following a straight-up loss and are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. … New York is riding a 7-3 cover run overall. … The Commanders are 1-4 ATS following a bye week. But they’re on a 6-1-1 spread uptick overall. … The Giants are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in Washington.

Pick: Commanders 27, Giants 24

Rams (4-9) at Packers (5-8)

Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN

Line/total: Packers -7, 40

Analysis: These are two of the NFL’s biggest underachievers this season. The Rams are the worst team in years to defend their Super Bowl title, but injuries have played a big part. QB Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have just been a mess all season, as he does not have much chemistry with his young wideouts.

By the numbers: Green Bay has won seven of the teams’ last eight meetings. … The Rams are 11-5-1 ATS following a bye week. … The Packers are on a 3-7 spread slide. … Green Bay is on a 7-1 over run against teams with losing records. … Los Angeles is on a 4-1 over uptick vs. the NFC.

Pick: Packers 19, Rams 16