NFL betting breakdown: Week 16
BETTING BREAKDOWN
Chip Chirimbes, TheAplay.com, Picksandparlays.net, VegasInsider.com
Saturday’s games
Raiders (6-8) at Pittsburgh (6-8)
Time: 5:15 p.m. Saturday, NFLN
Line/total: Steelers -2, 38
Analysis: The Raiders have won the past five meetings. They were underdogs each time and will again get points. You have to wonder how Franco Harris’ death this week is going to affect the Steelers, who plan to honor him at the game. Pittsburgh will start rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett after he cleared concussion protocol. The Raiders will play in single-digit temperatures, but they play well against the Steelers.
By the numbers: The Raiders are 6-2 ATS on grass, 4-1 ATS at Pittsburgh and 3-12 ATS vs. losing teams. … The Raiders are on a 9-3 under run after a straight-up win. … The Steelers are riding a 35-15-1 under run vs. losing teams. … Pittsburgh is 4-11-1 ATS after an ATS win.
Pick: Steelers 16, Raiders 13
New York Giants (8-5-1) at Minnesota (11-3)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Vikings -4, 48½
Analysis: The Vikings are coming off the biggest comeback in NFL history. Minnesota has clinched the NFC North title, and coach Kevin O’Connell is looking to stay healthy. The Giants defense is OK. But it’s much better than that of the Vikings, who are last in the NFL in total defense, allowing 399.2 yards per game. New York coach Brian Daboll will be the difference.
By the numbers: The Giants are 5-1 ATS on the road and 6-2 ATS vs. winning teams. … New York is riding a 15-5-2 under run after a straight-up loss. … The Vikings are 1-6-1 ATS vs. the NFC.
Pick: Giants 23, Vikings 20
New Orleans (5-9) at Cleveland (6-8)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Browns -3, 32
Analysis: This is a low total. Will these offenses be that bad, or will the 30 mph wind off Lake Erie be a factor, as arctic conditions are expected. Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson has yet to find his form, and I don’t think he will find it here. The Saints still have an unlikely shot at the playoffs, as they trail Tampa Bay by one game in the NFC South.
By the numbers: The Saints are 39-19 ATS on the road and riding a 6-1 under run. … The Browns are 5-0 ATS on Saturday.
Pick: New Orleans 11, Cleveland 10
Detroit (7-7) at Carolina (5-9)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Lions -2½, 43½
Analysis: The Lions have won six of their past seven games while going 7-0 ATS. Yet Carolina, at 5-9, still has better odds to make the playoffs in the weak NFC South. Detroit and its No. 31 defense (398.5 ypga) has been outgained in its past three wins. Even the Panthers and their weak offense will score enough for this to surprise most.
By the numbers: The Lions are 9-4 ATS on the road and riding an 11-5 over run. … Carolina is on a 4-10 spread slide at home. … The underdog is 6-2 ATS in its past eight meetings.
Pick: Panthers 23, Lions 19
Cincinnati (10-4) at New England (7-7)
Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8
Line/total: Bengals -3, 41½
Analysis: A Bill Belichick-coached team made the biggest bonehead play in NFL history in a loss to the Raiders, while the Bengals overcame a 17-0 deficit to the Buccaneers and covered easily. Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow is tough to beat, but this week the Patriots bounce back.
By the numbers: The Bengals are 1-6 ATS in the past seven meetings. … Cincinnati is 16-5 ATS after a straight-up win and is on a 12-3-1 over run against the AFC. … The Patriots are 6-1-1 ATS after a straight-up loss and on a 35-17 under run after a straight-up loss.
Pick: Patriots 20, Bengals 19
Buffalo (11-3) at Chicago (3-11)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Bills -8, 40
Analysis: Isn’t Bears quarterback Justin Fields incredible? Yes, a quarterback who set records running has lost his past six starts. Buffalo, which ranks second in total offense (400.6 ypg), is so ready to have a day against a soft Chicago defense that allows 355.6 ypg. The Bills have clinched a playoff spot and can seal the AFC East title with a win.
By the numbers: The Bills are 1-5 ATS after a straight-up win and are on a 7-0 under streak on the road. … The Bears are 9-19 ATS vs. winning teams. … Chicago is riding a 7-1 over run, but has a 23-11 under record at home.
Pick: Bills 41, Bears 13
Houston (1-12-1) at Tennessee (7-7)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Titans -3, 35
Analysis: Tennessee has lost four straight while averaging 15.5 points and now is without starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill. Rookie Malik Willis will start and can be exciting. Texans coach Lovie Smith is using two quarterbacks in Davis Mills and Jeff Driskel, but it won’t make a difference. It’s the Titans’ time.
By the numbers: Houston is 8-18-2 ATS after an ATS win and is on a 10-4 under run on the road. … Tennessee is 6-1 ATS vs. losing teams. … The Titans are on a 9-2 under run at home and 12-4 under uptick on grass.
Pick: Titans 27, Texans 10
Seattle (7-7) at Kansas City (11-3)
Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5
Line/total: Chiefs -10, 49½
Analysis: There’s no more talk of Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith for NFL MVP, as Seattle has lost four of its past five games while going 0-5 ATS. The Seahawks will be without wide receiver Tyler Lockett, and, with rookie running back Kenneth Walker banged up, their offense will struggle. Not much more can be said of Kansas City and quarterback Patrick Mahomes, other than a few more covers wouldn’t hurt. The Chiefs lead the league in total offense (429.4 ypg), passing offense (309.5 ypg) and scoring (29.6 ppg).
By the numbers: Seattle is 1-5 ATS on the road and has a 5-1 over mark away from home. … Kansas City is 7-2 ATS in the past nine meetings. … The Chiefs are 1-10-1 ATS after a straight-up win and 0-6-1 ATS at home. … The past five meetings have gone over.
Pick: Chiefs 39, Seahawks 16
Atlanta (5-9) at Baltimore (9-5)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Ravens -6½, 34½
Analysis: It’s hard to believe Baltimore is 9-5. The Ravens have scored three touchdowns in their past three games and having to deal with Lamar Jackson’s availability is getting old. The Falcons have lost five of six and handed the offense to rookie quarterback Desmond Ridder, who will be overmatched.
By the numbers: Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings and has a 5-1 under mark vs. losing teams. … The Ravens are 0-6-1 ATS at home. … The Falcons are on a 2-6 spread slide and have a 21-6 under record vs. winning teams.
Pick: Ravens 23, Falcons 6
Washington (7-6-1) at San Francisco (10-4)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/total: 49ers -6½, 37½
Analysis: The line seems a bit high. But with the Niners’ No.1 defense and Brock Purdy leading the offense, it might be right. Washington was on a 6-0-1 cover streak until going 0-2 ATS in a tie and loss to the Giants. Commanders quarterback Taylor Heinicke will have to watch out for 49ers pass rusher Nick Bosa, who leads the league in sacks with 15½.
By the numbers: Washington is 4-1 ATS on the road but 1-4-1 ATS vs. winning teams. … The Commanders are on a 10-1 under run after an ATS loss and are riding a 19-6-1 under uptick vs. winning teams. … San Francisco is 9-2 ATS at home and 16-5 ATS vs. the NFC. … The Niners have a 15-7 under record in their past 22 games.
Pick: 49ers 20, Commanders 16
Philadelphia (13-1) at Dallas (10-4)
Time: 1:25 p.m., KVVU-5
Line/total: Cowboys -4½, 47
Analysis: I wanted Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts to play and then fade him and the Eagles. But Hurts has been ruled out, and Gardner Minshew is expected to start. I’m still going to fade Philadelphia, as the number has ticked down a bit. The Cowboys seem to have lost their mojo, and this is the perfect spot for them to come alive again.
By the numbers: Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS vs. winning teams. … The Eagles are on a 7-2 over run and riding a 39-17 over uptick in December. … The Eagles are on an 0-4 spread skid at Dallas. … The Cowboys are 19-7 ATS vs. the NFC. … Dallas is on a 4-0 over run.
Pick: Cowboys 26, Eagles 20
Sunday’s games
Green Bay (6-8) at Miami (8-6)
Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5
Line/total: Dolphins -3½, 50
Analysis: The Dolphins return home after three straight road losses to face Aaron Rodgers, who thinks three wins will get the Packers into the playoffs. I think not. Tua Tagovailoa leads the NFL in passer rating (107.8), but is taking a beating and wearing down. Miami lost to the Bills last week and might be doubting itself. The Dolphins’ injury list continues to grow, with 12 players sidelined.
By the numbers: Green Bay is 16-7 ATS on grass and 4-1 ATS vs. Miami. … The Packers are on a 9-4 under run in December. … The Dolphins are on a 20-8 spread run at home and riding a 5-1 under mark in South Florida.
Pick: Packers 27, Dolphins 22
Denver (4-10) at Los Angeles Rams (4-10)
Time: 1:30 p.m., KLAS-8
Line/total: Broncos -2½, 36½
Analysis: The Rams have posted the worst record of any defending Super Bowl champion and are so beat up that they’ve started four quarterbacks and 12 offensive line combinations. Denver got what it wanted with an over-the-hill quarterback in Russell Wilson, and he is not the answer. The reigning Super Bowl champions are underdogs at home to the NFL’s 27th-ranked offense (316.1 ypg). Los Angeles is working on a short week, and Baker Mayfield can’t save it, as his injury-plagued offensive line allowed five sacks in Monday’s loss to the Packers.
By the numbers: The Broncos are 3-7 ATS on the road and 2-7 ATS after an ATS win. … Denver is on a 25-10 under run on the road. … The Rams are on under runs of 18-8 at home and 11-5 overall.
Pick: Broncos 15, Rams 13
Tampa Bay (6-8) at Arizona (4-10)
Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3
Line/total: Buccaneers -7½, 40½
Analysis: Cardinals quarterback Trace McSorley will make his first career start against the Buccaneers and Tom Brady, who will make his 331st start. Tampa Bay has struggled on the ground, ranking last in the league in rushing with 74.3 ypg. Arizona has won the past four meetings. Even with their third-string quarterback, the Cardinals should get the money against an inept offense.
By the numbers: The Bucs are on a 1-10-1 spread slide and 3-12-1 ATS on grass. … Tampa Bay is on a 16-5 under run vs. the NFC. … Arizona is 3-10 ATS at home. … The Cardinals are on a 7-1 over run.
Pick: Buccaneers 20, Cardinals 17
Monday’s game
Los Angeles Chargers (8-6) at Indianapolis (4-9-1)
Time: 5:15 p.m., ESPN
Line/total: Chargers -4, 45½
Analysis: Tryouts again at quarterback for the lame Colts, whose second-half performance in last week’s loss at Minnesota will live in NFL infamy. The Chargers keep doing their thing and letting down when they need it the most. They have talent but always seem to disappoint, though they’re 8-5-1 ATS. Indianapolis will go with Nick Foles at quarterback and can only get it done on defense, if that.
By the numbers: The Chargers are 5-2 ATS on the road. … The Colts are 19-7-1 ATS vs. winning teams at home. … The underdog is 7-2-1 ATS in the past 10 meetings.
Pick: Chargers 23, Colts 20
