NFL betting breakdown: Week 17

Dana Lane, @DanaLaneSports, Pickdawgz.com

Raiders (8-7) at Colts (9-6)

■ Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5

■ Line/total: Colts -7½, 44½

■ Analysis: Colts quarterback Carson Wentz was activated from the reserve/COVID-19 list Saturday. His symptoms have to be “resolved or improved” by Sunday morning for him to play, according to the new NFL policy. If he can’t, rookie Sam Ehlinger will start. The Colts can clinch a playoff spot with a win.

■ By the numbers: The Raiders are 3-2 ATS as road underdogs. … The Raiders are 6-4 ATS as underdogs overall. … The Colts are on a 5-2 under streak as home favorites.

■ Pick: Colts 23, Raiders 20

Giants (4-11) at Bears (5-10)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/total: Bears -6, 37

■ Analysis: Although the Bears’ fan base is ready to fire everyone, starting with coach Matt Nagy, we saw a team that did not quit in last week’s comeback win at Seattle. And that’s what you’re looking for in games involving teams that won’t make the postseason. The Giants look willing to play out the string without demanding excellence. In other words, they’ve quit.

■ By the numbers: The Bears are 2-1 ATS as favorites, but this is the first time they’re laying more than 3 points. … The Giants are riding a 10-1 under streak against teams with a losing record.

■ Pick: Bears 27, Giants 20

Buccaneers (11-4) at Jets (4-11)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/total: Buccaneers -13, 45½

■ Analysis: At age 44, Tom Brady leads the NFL in four statistical categories. With playoff seeding yet to be determined, I can’t see a letdown spot for Tampa Bay. After a rare win against the Jaguars, it’s more likely to see a satisfied Jets team.

■ By the numbers: New York is 5-11 ATS. … The Bucs have the NFL’s No. 1 passing offense, averaging 300 yards per game. … The Jets have the league’s worst defense, allowing 391.3 ypg.

■ Pick: Buccaneers 37, Jets 23

Falcons (7-8) at Bills (9-6)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/total: Bills -14½, 44

■ Analysis: This is the time of year when the real Super Bowl contenders start to gain that swagger that all championship teams have. The Bills are peaking at the right time and won’t take the Falcons lightly after getting upset by the Jaguars this season.

■ By the numbers: The Bills are 7-1 ATS against teams with a losing record, including a 3-1-1 ATS mark as double-digit favorites.

■ Pick: Bills 40, Falcons 24

Eagles (8-7) at Washington (6-9)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/total: Eagles -3½, 44½

■ Analysis: It’s a long shot, but if Washington wins, it’s still in the playoff hunt. Lose and it’s out. The Football Team lost the first meeting 27-17, but was without starting quarterback Taylor Heinicke.

■ By the numbers: The Eagles are on a 3-10 ATS slide after a cover. … Washington is on a 13-3 under streak against teams with a winning record.

Pick: Washington 23, Eagles 20

Chiefs (11-4) at Bengals (9-6)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/total: Chiefs -5, 51

■ Analysis: This is the biggest game the Bengals have played in a long time. With a win, they will clinch the AFC North title and secure a playoff berth for the first time since 2015. Joe Burrow scorched the Ravens last week for 525 passing yards and four touchdowns after being snubbed for the Pro Bowl. This is the stage Burrow has wanted since being drafted No. 1 overall last season, and I think he will take center stage after this one.

■ By the numbers: The Chiefs are 4-9 ATS the week after scoring 30 points. … The Bengals are 4-1 ATS vs. teams that have a .500 record or better.

■ Pick: Bengals 26, Chiefs 23

Jaguars (2-13) at Patriots (9-6)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/total: Patriots -16½, 41½

■ Analysis: I’m anticipating a small letdown after the Patriots’ second straight loss last week to the Bills. New England can still win the division, but needs help from either the Falcons or Jets. Patriots rookie quarterback Mac Jones has been too inconsistent for me to be comfortable covering this high number.

■ By the numbers: The underdog is 5-2 ATS in this series. … The Patriots are on a 5-0 over run at home.

■ Pick: Patriots 35, Jaguars 21

Dolphins (8-7) at Titans (10-5)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/total: Titans -3½, 40

■ Analysis: The Titans will clinch their third straight division title with a win. This will come down to which offensive line can protect its quarterback. Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has been harassed for most of the season, but it’s the Dolphins who lead the league with 45 sacks, 33 coming during their seven-game win streak.

■ By the numbers: The Dolphins are on a 6-1 cover run and are 20-8-1 ATS as underdogs. … The Titans are riding a 12-4-1 over streak against teams with a winning record.

■ Pick: Dolphins 23, Titans 20

Rams (11-4) at Ravens (8-7)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/total: Rams -5½, 46½

■ Analysis: Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson has missed the past two games with an ankle injury and is questionable to play. Backup Tyler Huntley would start in his place. I expect the Rams to continue to lean on Sony Michel, who led the NFL in rushing in December.

■ By the numbers: The Rams have covered four straight behind an offense that has averaged almost 30 points in the past five games. … Baltimore is 2-6 ATS at home against teams with a winning road record.

■ Pick: Rams 31, Ravens 24

Broncos (7-8) at Chargers (8-7)

■ Time: 1:05 p.m., KLAS-8

■ Line/total: Chargers -8, 45

■ Analysis: The Broncos are looking for their second win and cover against the Chargers after beating them 28-13 in Week 12. Los Angeles will try to stop a Denver running game that racked up 147 yards on the ground in the first meeting. The Broncos have won 16 of the past 21 meetings.

■ By the numbers: The Chargers are 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings and are 11-2 ATS after scoring 15 points or fewer in their previous game. … Los Angeles is 19-41-1 ATS at home.

■ Pick: Chargers 26, Broncos 23

Texans (4-11) at 49ers (8-7)

■ Time: 1:05 p.m.

■ Line/total: 49ers -12½, 43½

■ Analysis: After a 2-11 start, the Texans have won their past two games over the Chargers and Jaguars. The Niners probably will win, but it’s too much to ask them to cover double digits with their injuries, as quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is doubtful with a fractured thumb. Rookie Trey Lance is expected to make his second career start.

■ By the numbers: The 49ers are 15-31-1 ATS as favorites and 7-18-1 ATS against teams with a losing road record. … The Texans are on a 5-1 under surge on the road.

■ Pick: 49ers 21, Texans 17

Cardinals (10-5) at Cowboys (11-4)

■ Time: 1:25 p.m., KVVU-5

■ Line/total: Cowboys -6, 51

■ Analysis: The Cardinals have lost three straight, including a 30-12 beatdown to the Lions as 13-point favorites. The Cowboys look like legitimate Super Bowl contenders, with arguably the league’s most feared offense and their sensational rookie linebacker, Micah Parsons.

■ By the numbers: The Cardinals are 18-7-2 ATS as underdogs and 17-6-3 ATS as road underdogs. … Dallas is 5-12 ATS against teams with a winning record.

■ Pick: Cowboys 28, Cardinals 26

Panthers (5-10) at Saints (7-8)

■ Time: 1:25 p.m.

■ Line/total: Saints -6½, 37½

■ Analysis: The Saints still have a faint hope of making the postseason, but first they need to take care of teams such as the Panthers, who will start Sam Darnold at quarterback. Carolina was shut out in the second half last week against Tampa Bay. New Orleans had 21 players miss Monday’s loss to the Dolphins, but at least 13 have cleared COVID-19 protocol.

■ By the numbers: The Panthers are on an 0-5 spread skid overall and are 7-21 ATS against teams under .500. … New Orleans is 7-2 ATS the week after an ATS loss.

■ Pick: Saints 24, Panthers 10

Lions (2-12-1) at Seahawks (5-10)

■ Time: 1:25 p.m.

■ Line/total: Seahawks -7½, 41½

Analysis: If the Lions could convert a few more times in the red zone, perhaps their season wouldn’t resemble the disaster that it is. Despite Detroit’s record, it has shown plenty of fight in going 10-5 ATS. The Seahawks have lost their home-field advantage, going 2-5.

■ By the numbers: The Lions are 6-1 ATS as road underdogs. … Seattle is 4-9 ATS against teams with a losing record. … Detroit is on a 6-1 under run on the road. … The Seahawks are riding an 18-6 under streak overall.

■ Pick: Seahawks 21, Lions 17

Vikings (7-8) at Packers (5-10)

■ Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3

■ Line/total: Packers -13, 42½

■ Analysis: The Vikings defeated the Packers in their first meeting, but that was with quarterback Kirk Cousins, who is out on the COVID-19 list. He will be replaced by Sean Mannion, 0-2 as a starter. The Packers have been terrific at forcing turnovers, but this line seems to be begging the public to jump on them.

■ By the numbers: The underdog has covered four straight in this series. … Minnesota is 43-19 ATS after a straight-up loss. … The Vikings have a 13-3 over record after a straight-up loss. … The Packers are on an 8-2 over streak against the NFC North.

■ Pick: Packers 27, Vikings 23

Browns (7-8) at Steelers (7-7-1)

■ Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN

■ Line/total: Browns -3½, 41½

■ Analysis: Don’t get caught up in the fact that this might be Ben Roethlisberger’s final home game in Pittsburgh. The Browns, who rank second in the NFL in rushing, should have plenty of chances to run on the Steelers, who rank No. 30 in rushing defense. Expect Cleveland running back Nick Chubb to carry the Browns closer to a division title, while the Steelers see their playoff hopes end at home.

■ By the numbers: Pittsburgh is 0-6 ATS against teams with a losing record. … Cleveland is 7-3-1 ATS in January. … The Browns are on a 6-2 over surge against the AFC North. … Pittsburgh has a 25-7-1 over record in January.

■ Pick: Browns 27, Steelers 21