NFL draft betting: Size matters on quarterback prop bet

Size matters at the NFL scouting combine and in betting on the NFL draft.

Before last week’s combine, Pittsburgh product Kenny Pickett was the -120 favorite at Station Casinos to be the first quarterback selected in the draft, scheduled for April 28 to 30 in Las Vegas.

But after Pickett’s hands were measured at the combine at 8½ inches — a smaller size than any active quarterback in the NFL — he dropped to the +140 second choice behind Liberty’s Malik Willis, the new -170 favorite.

“Willis looked good and got a lot of hype at the combine, and the overall conversation of the entire combine was about Kenny Pickett’s hand size,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “I don’t know what impact that is long term. He did have (38) fumbles at the collegiate level.”

North Carolina’s Sam Howell is the +450 third choice to be the first quarterback selected, and Mississippi’s Matt Corral, who didn’t throw at the combine, is 8-1.

“The odds still might change again after Matt Corral’s pro day,” Esposito said. “That seems to be a big focus.”

Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder is 25-1 to be the first quarterback picked, and UNR’s Carson Strong is 50-1. The field (all others) is 60-1.

New favorite to go No. 1

There’s also a new favorite at Station to be the top overall pick in the draft. Alabama offensive tackle Evan Neal has supplanted Michigan defensive end Aidan Hutchinson as the +125 favorite to go No. 1 after opening as the +250 third choice.

North Carolina State guard Ikem Ekwonu is the +160 second choice, followed by Hutchinson at +180 and Oregon defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux at 4-1.

Jacksonville has the No. 1 pick.

“There was a lot of chatter about the Jaguars potentially going offensive line with Neal and Ekwonu, so you saw both of those guys move down a little bit,” Esposito said. “Part of it was from action and part was adjusting.”

Willis and Pickett are each 30-1 to go No. 1.

“There’s not that Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck at quarterback this year that everyone covets,” Esposito said. “It will be interesting to see if teams trade up, and who it’s for.”

Vegas Madness

The Big West and Western Athletic Conference men’s basketball tournaments tip off Tuesday at the Dollar Loan Center and Orleans Arena, respectively.

UC Irvine is the +360 favorite at Circa Sportsbook to win the Big West. Long Beach State and UC Santa Barbara are tied for the +410 second pick, Hawaii is +535, Cal State Fullerton is +590 and UC Riverside is +640.

In the WAC, New Mexico State is the +160 favorite, followed by Grand Canyon at +335, Seattle at +390 and Stephen F. Austin at +550.

Professional sports bettor Paul Stone likes Stephen F. Austin as a sleeper pick to win the tournament.

“They’ve got a pretty good team. They almost beat Kansas at Kansas earlier this season, and they just beat New Mexico State (on the road),” said Stone (@PaulStoneSports). “They’ve won NCAA Tournament games before and had one of the biggest upsets in years when they beat (then-No. 1) Duke as a 27½-point underdog in 2019.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.