NFL forecast: Cheap price on Chiefs vs. Bills in rematch

With the Chiefs mired in an 0-8-1 slide against the spread entering last season’s AFC championship game, the Bills were popular 3-point road underdogs.

Kansas City erased an early 9-0 deficit en route to a 21-12 halftime lead and 38-24 victory and cover that snapped Buffalo’s eight-game win streak.

The rematch on “Sunday Night Football” at Arrowhead Stadium sets up in much the same way. The Chiefs are stuck in a 2-12-1 spread slump, though they covered for the first time this season in last week’s 42-30 win over the Eagles.

Buffalo is riding high with three straight blowout wins and covers and is again a popular underdog. Kansas City opened as a 4-point favorite, but action on the Bills has driven the line to 2½.

The AFC powerhouses are tied for second in the NFL in scoring, averaging 33.5 points per game. Buffalo has the better defense, allowing a league-low 11 ppg with two shutouts. But it hasn’t been tested in a loss to the Steelers and wins over the Dolphins, Football Team and Texans.

The Chiefs won and covered both meetings with the Bills last season, winning 26-17 at Buffalo on Oct. 19, and I’ll take the two-time defending AFC champs laying less than a field goal at home.

Here are four more plays (home team in CAPS):

PANTHERS (-3) over Eagles: Carolina won and covered its first three games before suffering its first loss last week at Dallas, the league’s only unbeaten team ATS (4-0). Philadelphia is coming off its third straight loss after a season-opening rout of Atlanta and has covered only four of its last 12 games. The Panthers have the No. 3 scoring defense (16.5 ppga), and the Eagles are in the bottom 10 (26.5 ppga). I’ll take the better defense laying a field goal at home.

Packers (-2½) over BENGALS: Following Green Bay’s embarrassing 38-3 season-opening loss to the Saints, Aaron Rodgers has led the Packers to three straight wins and covers. Sharp action on Cincinnati has caused this number to drop from 3 to as low as 2½ at the SuperBook. But I’ll take my chances with reigning NFL MVP Rodgers, who has thrown for 764 yards and eight touchdowns with no interceptions in his last three games. The Bengals are 2-8 ATS after a straight-up win and narrowly avoided a 21-0 hole to the Jaguars before rallying for a 24-21 triumph last time out.

COWBOYS -7 over Giants: Dallas is 3-1, with its loss a last-second 31-29 defeat at Tampa Bay on the NFL’s opening night. Dak Prescott is locked in, completing 75 percent of his passes for 10 TDs and two interceptions while directing a Cowboys offense averaging 31.5 ppg. New York trailed New Orleans 21-10 in the fourth quarter last week before rallying for its first win, 27-21 in overtime.

Browns-CHARGERS Under 47: Los Angeles is one of four NFL teams with a 4-0 under record, along with Denver, Pittsburgh and New England. The Chargers have gone under in games against the high-scoring Chiefs, Cowboys and Raiders. Cleveland is fourth in scoring defense (16.8 ppg), and LA is seventh (18.5 ppg). The Browns beat the Vikings 14-7 last week and have gone under in their last two games. Cleveland leads the league in rushing yards (177 ypg) and attempts (35), and its ground game should help eat up the clock.

Last week: 1-4

Season: 10-10

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.