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NFL PLAYOFFS BAD BEATS BLOG: Underdogs, unders prevail

Updated January 17, 2021 - 7:21 pm

Welcome to the second day of the NFL’s divisional playoffs.

Today’s doubleheader begins with the Browns at the Chiefs, followed by the Buccaneers at the Saints.

We’ll be following all the action. Refresh this blog throughout the day to track bad beats, player props, movement on the live betting line, halftime bets and much more.

UPDATES

7:20 p.m.: That’s it for today. Underdogs went 2-0 against the spread, with the Buccaneers scoring a 30-20 upset of the Saints. The Chiefs survived for a 22-17 victory, but the Browns covered +8. Both games stayed under the total.

Betting results for both games — full game, first half and second half — are at the bottom of this story.

Thanks for reading. We’ll be back next Sunday for the conference championship games.

7:05 p.m.: Here are the props we’re tracking for Buccaneers-Saints:

General props: First score of the game won’t be a TD (+160); largest lead under 14½ points (10, -120); longest TD over 42½ yards (56); won’t be a defensive or special teams TD (-330); won’t be a successful 2-point conversion (-330); both teams will make a 33-yard or longer field goal (+110); won’t be a lead change in the fourth quarter (-240); a team will score three straight times (-200); will be a score in the final two minutes of the first half (-400); the game will be tied again after 0-0 (-110).

Buccaneers props: Tom Brady under 26½ completions (18), under 40½ attempts (33), under 301½ passing yards (199), longest completion under 38½ yards (29), pushes on 2 TD passes, won’t throw an interception (+115); Mike Evans under 4½ receptions (1, +130), under 64½ receiving yards (3); Antonio Brown under 4½ receptions (1), under 51½ receiving yards (10), longest reception under 19½ yards (10), won’t score a TD (+210).

Saints props: Drew Brees under 26½ completions (19), under 38½ attempts (34), under 282½ passing yards (134), longest completion under 37½ yards (16), under 2 TD passes (+100), will throw an interception (+140); Alvin Kamara over 61½ rushing yards (85), under 43½ receiving yards (20), won’t score a TD (+150); Michael Thomas under 6½ receptions (0, +110), under 78½ receiving yards (0), longest reception under 23½ yards (0), won’t score a TD (-130); Emmanuel Sanders over 41½ receiving yards (48).

6:55 p.m.: The schedule and lines for the conference championship games next Sunday (lines at Westgate):

Buccaneers (+175) at Packers (-4, 51½, -200), 12:05 p.m.

Bills (+140) at Chiefs (-3, 54½, -160), 3:40 p.m.

Circa Sports has the Chiefs at -3 (+100), total 55.

6:52 p.m.: FINAL: Buccaneers 30, Saints 20. The Bucs win outright as 2½-point road underdogs, +130 ML. The game stays under 53½.

6:41 p.m.: Another interception of Brees, this one off a deflection, and this one is all but over. The Bucs have the ball at their 48 with 4:17 to play.

6:34 p.m.: Brady was +550 to score a TD.

6:33 p.m.: That might do it. Brady sneaks in for a 1-yard TD, and the Buccaneers extend their lead to 30-20 over the Saints with 4:57 left in the fourth quarter. The Bucs are -4,000 on the live line (Saints +1,260).

6:31 p.m.: Another interception of Brees gives Tampa Bay a chance to take a two-score lead, starting at the Saints 20.

6:23 p.m.: The Bucs take the lead. Succop hits a 36-yard field goal, and the Buccaneers lead the Saints 23-20 with 9:52 left in the fourth quarter. The Bucs are -144 on the live line (Saints +118), spread -2½, total 52½.

6:12 p.m.: END OF THE THIRD QUARTER: Buccaneers 20, Saints 20. The Bucs have the ball at their 27 and are -115 on the live line (Saints -105), spread -½, total 53½.

6:07 p.m.: The Saints have to punt, and the Bucs have the ball at their 21. The Bucs are -115 on the live line (Saints -105), spread -1½, total 53½.

5:58 p.m.: Fournette was +130 to score a TD.

5:57 p.m.: The Buccaneers cash in the turnover. Leonard Fournette catches a 6-yard TD pass, and the Bucs tie the Saints at 20 with 2:22 left in the third quarter. The Saints are -142 on the live line (Bucs +116), spread -2½, total 56½.

5:54 p.m.: The Buccaneers get a break, forcing a fumble and returning it to the Saints 40.

5:39 p.m.: The Saints take the lead. Smith catches his second TD of the day, a 16-yarder from Brees, and the Saints take a 20-13 lead on the Buccaneers with 9:43 left in the third quarter. The Saints are -250 on the live line (Bucs +198), spread -5½, total 53½.

5:17 p.m.: Second-half line: Saints -2½, total 26.

5:15 p.m.: HALFTIME: Buccaneers 13, Saints 13. First-half winners: Buccaneers +½ (-130), under 26½. The Bucs cover the first-half spread on Succop’s 37-yard field goal on the final play. The half stayed under 26½ when Chris Godwin couldn’t hold onto a TD pass in the final seconds.

5:02 p.m.: Two-minute warning. The Buccaneers face third-and-7 at their 21, trailing the Saints 13-10. The Saints are -192 on the live line (Bucs +154), spread -3½, total 52½.

4:46 p.m.: Smith was +250 to score a TD. Longest TD over 42½ yards cashes.

4:45 p.m.: The Saints go to the bag of tricks and are successful. Backup quarterback Jameis Winston takes a throwback pass and throws a 56-yard TD to Tre’Quan Smith. The Saints lead the Buccaneers 13-10 with 8:08 left in the second quarter. The Saints are -160 on the live line (Bucs +130), spread -3½, total 57½.

4:36 p.m.: Evans was 8-1 to score the first TD of the game and +135 to score at any point. Brees was +140 to throw an interception.

4:35 p.m.: Huge swing for Tampa Bay. After an interception of Drew Brees, the Buccaneers cash in on the next play with a 3-yard TD pass to Mike Evans, and they lead the Saints 10-6 with 11:16 left in the second quarter. The Bucs are now favored at -132 on the live line (Saints +108), spread -1½, total 53½.

4:27 p.m.: The Buccaneers get on the board. Ryan Succop hits a 26-yard field goal, and the Bucs cut the Saints’ lead to 6-3 with 12:57 left in the second quarter. The Saints are -192 on the live line (Bucs +154), spread -3½, total 47½.

4:21 p.m.: END OF THE FIRST QUARTER: Saints 6, Buccaneers 0. First-quarter winners: Saints -½ (+130), under 10 (-120).

4:10 p.m.: Lutz adds a 42-yard field goal, and the Saints extend their lead to 6-0 over the Buccaneers with 4:39 left in the first quarter. The Saints are -260 on the live line (Bucs +205), spread -5½, total 50½.

3:57 p.m.: The Bucs go three-and-out again. The Saints returned the punt for a TD, but the score was nullified by a block-in-the-back penalty. The Saints are -250 on the live line (Bucs +198), spread -6½, total 52½.

3:54 p.m.: Some sportsbooks have put up a line on the AFC championship game despite uncertainty about Mahomes.

Circa Sports has Chiefs -3 (+100), total 54½, -148 ML (Bills +130).

The Westgate has Chiefs -3, 54½, -155 ML (Bills +135).

3:52 p.m.: The first score won’t be a TD cashes at +160.

3:51 p.m.: The Saints score first. Wil Lutz kicks a 23-yard field goal, and the Saints lead the Buccaneers 3-0 with 11:30 left in the first quarter. The Saints are -176 on the live line (Bucs +142), spread -3½, total 53½.

3:45 p.m.: Bad start for Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers go three-and-out, then Deonte Harris returns the punt 54 yards to the Bucs 21. The Saints are -225 on the live line (Bucs +180), spread -5½, total 55½.

3:40 p.m.: The last game is about to kick off:

Buccaneers (+130) at Saints (-2½ -120, 53½, -150), 3:40 p.m.

3:30 p.m.: Here are the props we’re tracking for Buccaneers-Saints:

General props: First score of the game will be a TD (yes -180); largest lead 14½ points (under -120); longest TD 42½ yards; will there be a defensive or special teams TD (no -330); will there be a successful 2-point conversion (no -330); will both teams make a 33-yard or longer field goal (no -130); will there be a lead change in the fourth quarter (no -240); will either team score three straight times (yes -200); will there be a score in the final two minutes of the first half (yes -400); will the game be tied again after 0-0 (yes -110).

Saints props: Drew Brees 26½ completions, 38½ attempts, 282½ passing yards, longest completion 37½ yards, 2 TD passes (over -120), will throw an interception (no -160); Alvin Kamara 61½ rushing yards, 43½ receiving yards, will score a TD (yes -170); Michael Thomas 6½ receptions (over -130), 78½ receiving yards, longest reception 23½ yards, will score a TD (no -130); Emmanuel Sanders 41½ receiving yards.

Buccaneers props: Tom Brady 26½ completions, 40½ attempts, 301½ passing yards, longest completion 38½ yards, 2 TD passes (over -120), will throw an interception (yes -135); Mike Evans 4½ receptions (over -150), 64½ receiving yards; Antonio Brown 4½ receptions, 51½ receiving yards, longest reception 19½ yards, will score a TD (no -250).

3:25 p.m.: Final prop grades for Browns-Chiefs:

Team totals: Chiefs under 32½ points (22), Browns under 23½ (17).

Alternate spreads: Chiefs -3½ (-200), Browns +17½ (-400).

General props: First score of the game will be a TD (-220); largest lead over 14½ points (-140); longest TD under 45½ yards; won’t be a defensive or special teams TD (-310); won’t be a successful 2-point conversion (-300); both teams will make a 33-yard or longer field goal (+135); won’t be a lead change in the fourth quarter (-420); a team will score three straight times (-220); will be a score in the final two minutes of the first half (-500); game won’t be tied again after 0-0 (-150).

Chiefs props: Patrick Mahomes under 26½ completions (21), under 39½ attempts (30), under 319½ passing yards (255), longest completion over 38½ yards (42), under 2½ TD passes (1, +120), won’t throw an interception (-185), under 24½ rushing yards (14); Travis Kelce over 7½ receptions (8, -130), over 96½ receiving yards (109), will score a TD (-160); Tyreek Hill over 6½ receptions (8, +115), over 85½ receiving yards (110), longest reception under 27½ yards (26), won’t score a TD (+140).

Browns props: Baker Mayfield over 22½ completions (23), over 36½ attempts (37), under 257½ passing yards (204), longest completion under 34½ yards (27), under 1½ TD passes (1, +110), will throw an interception (-150), under 11½ rushing yards (11); Nick Chubb under 76½ rushing yards (69), won’t score a TD (+110); Kareem Hunt under 33½ rushing yards (32); Jarvis Landry over 5½ receptions (7, +120), under 60½ receiving yards (20).

3:08 p.m.: Now all eyes turn to the status of Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes for the AFC title game. Don’t expect to see a line until his status is confirmed. An early line of Chiefs -4 was posted before Mahomes left with a concussion.

3:06 p.m.: FINAL: Chiefs 22, Browns 17. The Browns cover as 8-point road underdogs, but the Chiefs win hold on to win outright at -410 ML to advance to the AFC championship game. The game stays under 56. The Chiefs converted fourth-and-1 at midfield with just over a minute left to finish off the victory.

2:59 p.m.: Two-minute warning. The Chiefs face third-and-14 at their 35. If they convert, the game is over; the Browns have no timeouts left.

2:52 p.m.: The Browns have to punt, and the Chiefs have the ball back at their 28, leading 22-17 with 4:09 left in the fourth quarter. The Chiefs are -450 on the live line (Browns +330).

2:43 p.m.: The Browns have their chance. Chad Henne throws an interception on a deep ball in the end zone, and the Browns take over, trailing the Chiefs 22-17 with 8:00 left in the fourth quarter. The Chiefs are -150 on the live line (Browns +122).

2:30 p.m.: Hunt was +145 to score a TD against his former team.

2:29 p.m.: We’ve got a ballgame. Kareem Hunt scores on a 3-yard TD run, and the Browns cut the Chiefs’ lead to 22-17 with 11:07 left in the fourth quarter. The Chiefs are -188 on the live line (Browns +152), spread -3½, total 47½.

2:28 p.m.: Mahomes is out for the rest of the game with a concussion, CBS announces.

2:20 p.m.: END OF THE THIRD QUARTER: Chiefs 22, Browns 10. The Browns are driving and have a chance to make things interesting, especially if Mahomes can’t come back. And the spread remains very much in doubt.

2:10 p.m.: Butker hits a 33-yard field goal, and the Chiefs extend their lead to 22-10 over the Browns with 4:24 left in the third quarter. The Chiefs are -420 on the live line (Browns +310), spread -6½, total 48½.

2:09 p.m.: Mahomes has gone back to the locker room after a hit. No word on his status.

1:58 p.m.: Landry was +190 to score a TD.

1:57 p.m.: The Browns strike back. Jarvis Landry catches a 4-yard TD pass, and the Browns cut the Chiefs’ lead to 19-10 with 9:29 left in the third quarter. The Chiefs are -1,000 on the live line (Browns +610), spread -10½, total 52½.

1:50 p.m.: Butker misses a 33-yard field goal, and the Chiefs’ lead stays at 19-3 with 14:07 left in the third quarter. The Chiefs are -3,000 on the live line (Browns +1,120), spread -16½, total 48½.

1:47 p.m.: Mayfield throws an interception on the Browns’ opening drive, and this might be ready to get out of hand. Mayfield was +130 to throw an interception.

1:38 p.m.: The touchback did affect the first-half spread for some bettors. The Browns were +6½ for much of the week before going down to +5½ today. Cleveland still would have had to stop the Chiefs’ final drive to secure the cover.

1:32 p.m.: A disastrous end to the first half for the Browns. First, Rashard Higgins fumbled through the end zone for a touchback while diving for a 26-yard TD pass. Then the Chiefs were able to work down the field for a field goal with two seconds left in the second quarter. The Chiefs are -2,500 on the live line (Browns +1,040), spread -16½, total 48½.

1:31 p.m.: Second-half line: Chiefs -½, total 27½.

1:29 p.m.: HALFTIME: Chiefs 19, Browns 3. First-half winners: Chiefs -5½, under 28.

1:06 p.m.: Both teams will make 33-yard or longer field goals cashes at +135.

1:05 p.m.: Harrison Butker nails a 50-yard field goal, and the Chiefs extend their lead to 16-3 with 3:09 left in the second quarter. The Chiefs are -1,250 on the live line (Browns +710), spread -13½, total 49½.

12:51 p.m.: The Browns have to punt, and the Chiefs have a chance to build a big lead early. The Chiefs are -950 on the live line (Browns +590), spread -13½, total 53½.

12:42 p.m.: Kelce was -160 to score a TD.

12:41 p.m.: The Chiefs are rolling. Travis Kelce leaps in for a 20-yard TD catch, and the Chiefs extend their lead to 13-3 over the Browns with 13:48 left in the second quarter. The Chiefs are -750 on the live line (Browns +490), spread -13½, total 56½.

12:37 p.m.: END OF THE FIRST QUARTER: Chiefs 6, Browns 3. First-quarter winners: Chiefs -2½, under 10½ (-135). A lot of bettors pushed with Browns +3 as well.

12:30 p.m.: The Browns get on the board. Cody Parkey kicks a 46-yard field goal, and the Browns cut the Chiefs’ lead to 6-3 with 2:41 left in the first quarter. The Chiefs are -520 on the live line (Browns +370), spread -9½, total 54½.

12:15 p.m.: Mahomes was 12-1 to score the first TD and +195 to score at any point. The first score will be a TD cashes at -220.

12:13 p.m.: The Chiefs show no rust. Patrick Mahomes scores on a 1-yard run, and the Chiefs lead the Browns 6-0 with 9:11 left in the first quarter (extra point missed). The Chiefs are -520 on the live line (Browns +370), spread -10½, total 56½.

12:04 p.m.: The first game is about to kick off:

Browns (+340) at Chiefs (-8, 56, -410), 12:05 p.m.

11:55 a.m.: Here are the props we’re tracking for Browns-Chiefs:

General props: First score of the game will be a TD (yes -220); largest lead 14½ points (over -140); longest TD 45½ yards; will there be a defensive or special teams TD (no -310); will there be a successful 2-point conversion (no -300); will both teams make a 33-yard or longer field goal (no -155); will there be a lead change in the fourth quarter (no -420); will either team score three straight times (yes -220); will there be a score in the final two minutes of the first half (yes -500); will the game be tied again after 0-0 (no -150).

Chiefs props: Patrick Mahomes 26½ completions, 39½ attempts, 319½ passing yards, longest completion 38½ yards, 2½ TD passes (over -140), will throw an interception (no -185), 24½ rushing yards; Travis Kelce 7½ receptions (over -130), 96½ receiving yards, will score a TD (yes -160); Tyreek Hill 6½ receptions (under -135), 85½ receiving yards, longest reception 27½ yards, will score a TD (yes -160).

Browns props: Baker Mayfield 22½ completions, 36½ attempts, 257½ passing yards, longest completion 34½ yards, 1½ TD passes (over -130), will throw an interception (yes -150), 11½ rushing yards; Nick Chubb 76½ rushing yards, will score a TD (yes -130); Kareem Hunt 33½ rushing yards; Jarvis Landry 5½ receptions (under -140), 60½ receiving yards.

11:45 a.m.: Money has come in on both underdogs this morning. The Browns have gone from +9½ (and +10 for much of the week) to as low as +7½. The line has also moved toward the Buccaneers after being Saints -3 for most of the week. Several books have the Saints -2½ at -115 or -120; some still have Bucs +3 but at -120.

Earlier, BetMGM took a $220,000 bet to win $200,000 on the Browns +10, the Review-Journal’s Todd Dewey reported.

First post: Today’s games pit two young quarterbacks and two old ones, three of whom have been Super Bowl MVPs.

First, Patrick Mahomes and the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs welcome Baker Mayfield and the Cleveland Browns. Then, 43-year-old Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers try to knock off 42-year-old Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints.

TODAY’S SCHEDULE

— Chiefs 22, Browns 17 (at Kansas City)

Full-game winners: Browns +8, under 56, Chiefs -410 ML

First-half winners: Chiefs -5½, under 28 (Chiefs 19-3)

Second-half winners: Browns +½, under 27½ (Browns 14-3)

— Buccaneers 30, Saints 20 (at New Orleans)

Full-game winners: Buccaneers +2½ (+100), under 53½, Buccaneers +130 ML

First-half winners: Buccaneers +½ (-130), under 26½ (tied 13-13)

Second-half winners: Buccaneers +2½, under 26 (Buccaneers 17-7)

Contact Jim Barnes at jbarnes@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0277. Follow @JimBarnesLV on Twitter.

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