NFL Week 13 underdogs dominate, cause Circa contest carnage

The betting public was thankful for the NFL Sunday afternoon games after underdogs dominated on Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Sunday morning.

Favorites swept the board in the afternoon window Sunday to end a 9-2 against-the-spread run by Week 13 underdogs with seven outright wins, including all four games Thursday and Friday.

“Those games were great. It’s the first time I can really remember not just the ’dogs covering, but outright wins on all three games on Thanksgiving Day,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “Usually it’s the reverse. We’re looking for one underdog to cover, let alone all three win.”

The Packers kicked off the holiday weekend with a 31-24 win over the Lions as 3-point underdogs. The Cowboys (+3½) then beat the Chiefs 31-28 and the Bengals (+7½) stunned the Ravens 32-14 in the nightcap in the return of Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow.

The Bears (+7) turned Friday into a dark day for favorite bettors as they dealt the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles a 24-15 defeat.

Contest carnage

The upsets caused carnage in the $1,000-entry Circa Survivor, which counts Thanksgiving/Black Friday as a separate contest week and saw the remaining pool of 900 entries slashed to only 49 still alive in the quest for the $18.7 million prize.

Philadelphia eliminated 489 entries and Baltimore knocked out 269, while 78 had Kansas City and 13 were on Detroit. Two entries failed to submit a pick.

“This is a holiday weekend everyone will remember for a very long time,” Circa Sports director of operations Jeff Benson said. “Winning in the NFL isn’t easy. All four dogs win outright, and it totally turns the contests upside down.”

The inaugural $100,000-entry Circa Grandissimo came to an end as the six entries remaining from the starting field of 69 were eliminated — three by the Ravens and three by the Eagles. The ultra high-stakes version of Survivor created six millionaires as each winning entry took home $1,150,000 from the $6.9 million prize pool.

“The first year of Circa Grandissimo exceeded expectations in number of signups and how long the season went,” Benson said.

Hot dogs

Underdogs went 5-2 ATS on Sunday morning with three outright wins by the Texans (+3, beat Colts 20-16), Jets (+3, beat Falcons 27-24) and Panthers, who pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the season in a 31-28 victory over the Rams as 10-point underdogs.

“The biggest morning game was getting the Panthers as double-digit ’dogs to win outright over the Rams,” Esposito said. “That really destroyed money line parlays and teasers. That was huge.”

Four Circa Survivor entries were eliminated on the Rams, leaving 45.

Underdogs went 10-5 ATS overall in Week 13 and unders went 9-6.

Favorite things

The five favorites that cashed tickets were the Jaguars (-6, beat Titans 25-3) and 49ers (-5½, beat Browns 26-8) in the morning games and the Seahawks (-12½, beat Vikings 26-0), Bills (-3, beat Steelers 26-7) and Chargers (-9½, beat Raiders 31-14) in the afternoon.

“The public won all three afternoon games. That was the real problem. And our big game in the morning was the Browns,” Westgate vice president of race and sports John Murray said. “(Sunday) will be a losing day overall. We’ll be a winner for the weekend.”

The public also won big on the Niners at Caesars Sportsbook.

“The 49ers taking on a rookie quarterback (in Shedeur Sanders) and the Browns is always the easiest recipe for any holiday betting chef, and every week we are Titans fans, almost every week we are on the wrong end of the decision,” Caesars head of football Joey Feazel said. “Not the best week of the season for bettors, barring a few really fancied ’dogs and the opposing of the usual suspects, Titans, Saints, Browns and Raiders.

“The afternoon all went the bettors’ way with the three big favorites all covering the spreads to even up the day.”

The Saints (+5½) trailed the Dolphins 16-0 at halftime, but rallied for a backdoor cover on Tyler Shough’s 15-yard touchdown pass to Devaughn Vele with 1:17 left that made it 19-17.

The Commanders (+6) also burned Broncos bettors with a backdoor cover in a 27-26 overtime loss on “Sunday Night Football.” Washington pulled within a point on Marcus Mariota’s 3-yard touchdown pass to Terry McLaurin on fourth-and-goal and then went for the win. But Mariota’s 2-point conversion pass was batted down as Denver improved to 10-2.

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.