NFL Week 8 betting breakdown: Predictions for every game

NFL BETTING BREAKDOWN

Alex B. Smith, axsmithsports.com, @axsmithsports

Raiders (3-4) at Lions (5-2)

Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, KTNV-13, ESPN

Line/total: Lions -8, 46

Analysis: It’s the first “Monday Night Football” game in the Motor City since 2018. The Lions are in first place, but are coming off of a savage 38-6 beating at the hands of the Ravens last week. Coach Dan Campbell will have his troops ready against a disaster of a Raiders team that lost 30-12 to the Bears last week on the road. Detroit has covered in six of its last eight games as a home favorite and has covered 14 of its last 17 games overall.

Pick: Lions 27, Raiders 17

Saints (3-4) at Colts (3-4)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Saints -1, 44

Analysis: The Saints have won the last four meetings against the Colts, including their 31-17 win in the 2010 Super Bowl. Indianapolis narrowly dropped a 39-38 thriller at home against Cleveland last week. New Orleans, which lost 31-24 to Jacksonville on “Thursday Night Football,” is a road underdog for the third time in the last four weeks. The Saints went over against the Jags, but are still riding a 15-2 under run. The Colts are on a 15-8-1 run against the spread against NFC opponents.

Pick: Colts 31, Saints 20

Jaguars (5-2) at Steelers (4-2)

Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Jaguars -2, 40½

Analysis: The Jaguars head into this game with extra rest after beating New Orleans on “Thursday Night Football.” The Steelers return home from California with a win in tow, a 24-17 victory over the Rams. These teams have played each other tight over the years, with the under cashing in six of the last 10 meetings. Pittsburgh has covered eight of its last 10 games overall, while Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS before a bye.

Pick: Jaguars 23, Steelers 17

Texans (3-3) at Panthers (0-6)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Texans -3½, 43

Analysis: Any chances of postseason play for Carolina have flown out the window. But with Thomas Brown taking over the offensive play-calling from coach Frank Reich, we may now see quarterback Bryce Young, the No. 1 overall draft pick, turn things around this week against a middle-of-the-road Texans squad led by QB C.J. Stroud, the No. 2 overall pick. Houston has covered four of its first six games to start the season. The Texans have gone under in 10 of their last 15 games, and the under has cashed in five of the last six meetings between these teams.

Pick: Panthers 29, Texans 22

Eagles (6-1) at Commanders (3-4)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Eagles -7, 43

Analysis: This is a revenge spot for Washington, which led Philadelphia 17-7 before losing 34-31 in overtime in Week 4. The Eagles have the Cowboys on deck next week, but I expect QB Jalen Hurts and company to be focused in this one. The Commanders have the fourth-worst defense in the league and have failed to cover in four of their last seven games.

Pick: Eagles 31, Commanders 13

Rams (3-4) at Cowboys (4-2)

Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: Cowboys -6½, 45½

Analysis: The Rams head to “Jerry World” reeling from last week’s 24-17 home loss to Pittsburgh, which rallied for two fourth-quarter touchdowns. Dallas is coming off of a bye week. The Cowboys have covered six of their last nine games overall and are on a 12-5 ATS run as home favorites.

Pick: Cowboys 34, Rams 17

Patriots (2-5) at Dolphins (5-2)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Dolphins -9½, 46½

Analysis: The Dolphins lost on Sunday night to the Eagles 31-17 in a game that saw a lot of missed calls for coach Mike McDaniel and company. The Patriots are on a 2-9 ATS run overall, and a 3-12 spread slide as underdogs. Miami has covered 13 of its last 17 games as a home favorite, and are 7-2 ATS against division opponents.

Pick: Dolphins 38, Patriots 19

Jets (3-3) at Giants (2-5)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Jets -3, 36

Analysis: The Jets head into their shared space with the Giants this week to battle their intrastate rivals. The Giants are fully rested after a much-needed bye and will be led by veteran backup QB Tyrod Taylor. The Giants are on a 9-21 ATS slide as home underdogs. But the Jets have struggled with rest, going 1-5 ATS after a bye week.

Pick: Giants 23, Jets 20

Falcons (4-3) at Titans (2-4)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Falcons -3, 35½

Analysis: After trips to Indianapolis and London prior to the bye week, the Titans play a game at home before going on the road for three straight weeks. Atlanta comes into the Music City off of a 16-13 win at Tampa Bay thanks to kicker Younghoe Koo nailing a 51-yard game-winner at the buzzer. The Titans are 6-0-1 ATS off of a bye week.

Pick: Falcons 26, Titans 16

Vikings (3-4) at Packers (2-4)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Vikings -1, 42

Analysis: The Vikings are fresh off a 22-17 upset of San Francisco as 7-point underdogs Monday night. Green Bay is looking to bounce back after Sunday’s 19-17 loss at Denver. The home team has won and covered each of the last four meetings. The Vikings are on a 1-8 spread slide against division foes as road underdogs.

Pick: Vikings 27, Packers 24 (OT)

Browns (4-2) at Seahawks (4-2)

Time: 1:05 p.m.

Line/total: Seahawks -4, 38½

Analysis: Cleveland survived an insane 39-38 contest with the Colts last week, but starting QB Deshaun Watson suffered an injury in the first half of the game and is expected to miss this week with shoulder issues. P.J. Walker will start in his place. Seattle has covered 10 of its last 15 games against AFC opponents, while the Browns are 11-4 in their last 15 against NFC foes.

Pick: Seahawks 20, Browns 17 (OT)

Chiefs (6-1) at Broncos (2-5)

Time: 1:25 p.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Chiefs -7, 47

Analysis: The Chiefs look to make it 17 wins in a row against the Broncos, who picked up their second victory of the year in Sunday’s narrow 19-17 decision over Green Bay. Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes threw for 424 yards and four TDs in a 31-17 win over the Chargers. This looks like another rout in the making for the Chiefs, who have covered 11 of their last 15 against the Broncos. Denver has failed to cover seven of its last 10 home games.

Pick: Chiefs 38, Broncos 18

Bengals (3-3) at 49ers (5-2)

Time: 1:25 p.m

Line: Niners -4½, 43½

Analysis: San Francisco looks to bounce back after a 22-17 road loss Monday in Minnesota. RB Christian McCaffrey kept his TD streak rolling and is now at 16 consecutive games with a score. Cincinnati has gotten off to a slow start, but it has been a covering machine to the tune of 15-4-1 ATS in its last 20 games. The Niners have covered 13 of their last 14 as home favorites.

Pick: Niners 28, Bengals 17

Ravens (5-2) at Cardinals (1-6)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: Ravens -10, 44½

Analysis: The Ravens fly into Arizona off a 38-6 beatdown of Detroit in which QB Lamar Jackson threw for 357 yards and three TDs and also rushed for a score. Arizona has failed to cover in its last four games and is hoping that things will change for the better if and when starting QB Kyler Murray returns to action within the next two weeks.

Pick: Ravens 45, Cardinals 19

Bears (2-5) at Chargers (2-4)

Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3

Line/total: Chargers -8½, 46½

Analysis: The Bears will again start backup QB Tyson Bagent, who looked solid in last week’s 30-12 home victory over the Raiders. The Chargers are on a 5-15-1 spread slide as home favorites against non-division opponents. Chicago is on a 4-10-2 ATS skid in its last 16 games overall.

Pick: Bears 26, Chargers 20