Sportsbooks don’t see drop-off for UNLV under Dan Mullen

Before Barry Odom became UNLV’s football coach, the Rebels hadn’t won nine games in a season since 1984.

Under Odom, UNLV won at least nine games in back-to-back regular seasons, finishing 9-3 in 2023 and 10-2 last season while losing to Boise State in the Mountain West title game each season and splitting two bowl games.

Odom bolted for the Big Ten to become Purdue’s coach, but oddsmakers expect the Rebels to keep rolling under new coach Dan Mullen. Sportsbooks have made UNLV’s season win total the highest in program history at 8½ (under-120 at Westgate SuperBook).

“UNLV is kind of like modern-day college football in that you look at the turnover from last year’s team to this year’s team, it’s incredible. It’s basically a whole new team,” Westgate oddsmaker Ed Salmons said. “A lot of people are down on UNLV just because it’s a new team, and they say they’re going to regress. But from the players that they got from these blue bloods, it sounds like they could be every bit as good as they were last year.”

The Rebels have 26 former Power Four football players on their roster, including Michigan transfer quarterback Alex Orji and Virginia transfer quarterback Anthony Colandrea. But CBS Sportsline handicapper Bruce Marshall doesn’t believe that UNLV will produce another nine-win season. He recommends a play on under 8½ wins.

“I’m just not sure they’re going to pick up where they left off. I find UNLV a very tricky read because it’s basically a new team. It’s all portal,” he said. “While full-on reloads via the portal can occasionally work, a la Colorado, it’s not easy throwing a team together on short notice, and many of the Rebs’ new faces, especially on defense, didn’t shine in their previous locales.”

UNLV is a -1,200 favorite at Caesars Sportsbook to win six games or more, +220 to win 10 or more and 20-1 to go 12-0. The Rebels have 2-1 odds to be a finalist in the Mountain West title game for the third straight season.

Boise State is a -160 favorite at the Westgate to win the Mountain West, and UNLV is the 7-1 second choice, followed by San Jose State (8-1), Fresno State (10-1) and Air Force (14-1). The Rebels are 16-1 at the Westgate to make the College Football Playoff.

For openers

Bettors are all over UNLV in Saturday’s opener against Idaho State, a Football Championship Subdivision foe, at Allegiant Stadium. The Rebels are 27-point favorites at STN Sports after the line opened at 23, and the total has shot up from 63 to 65½.

“That is the biggest line move on the board in Week Zero,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “The success they’ve had the last couple of years has really carried over, and bringing in Mullen as head coach.

“From the fans’ side of it, we’re super excited about it. From the business side of it, it’s win but just don’t cover.”

The Rebels, who went 18-10 against the spread under Odom, are riding a sizzling 22-5 cover streak in nonconference games. They open with four straight nonconference matchups.

UNLV is a 13-point road favorite over Sam Houston on Aug. 29 and a 1-point home underdog to UCLA on Sept. 6. The Rebels wrap up their nonconference schedule Sept. 20 at Miami-Ohio in a game currently off the board.

UNLV is a 10-point underdog Oct. 18 at Boise State, but is expected to be favored in its other Mountain West games, including by 13 over Hawaii on Nov. 21 and by 13 at UNR on Nov. 29.

“It’s a fairly easy schedule, and I think that gives them a chance to succeed,” Salmons said. “I always liked Dan Mullen. I thought he was a really good coach at Mississippi State, then I don’t know what happened at Florida. I’m just going to chalk it up to weird times with COVID.”

Mullen went 69-46 in nine seasons at Mississippi State (2009-17), which was ranked No. 1 in the nation during the 2014 season. He went 34-15 at Florida (2018-21), which fired him following a loss to Missouri that dropped the Gators to 5-6.

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.