Sportsbooks expect record betting on World Cup; USA favorite to win group

Most of the record 48-team field is set for the 2026 World Cup, which will be played in North America for the first time since 1994, and the United States is the betting favorite to win its group after the recent draw.

Likewise, Las Vegas sportsbooks are favorites to set a record handle, or amount of money wagered, on a soccer event in the tournament hosted by the U.S., Mexico and Canada from June 11 to July 19.

“Expectations for next summer’s World Cup are extremely high,” Caesars Sportsbook head of soccer Mark Bickerdike said. “Having an extended tournament in a U.S. customer-friendly time zone should result in this being the highest handle soccer competition the industry has ever seen.

“It’s going to be an action-packed six weeks, with only five rest days, so there will be plenty of soccer on offer for viewers.”

Westgate SuperBook vice president of risk Jeff Sherman said the World Cup, which will feature 104 matches, will boost books during one of the slower times on the sports betting calendar.

“We’re always looking for something to help out with handle during the summer when it’s really only baseball for the most part,” he said. “You get over a month of this stuff, and that helps bring some energy and life into the book at a slower time of year.

“This will be the best we’ve ever done (on a World Cup).”

USA, USA

Mexico is a -180 favorite over South Africa in the World Cup opener June 11 in Mexico City, and the U.S. is a +110 favorite over Paraguay in its opening match June 12 at SoFi Stadium.

The Americans are +125 favorites at Caesars to win Group D over Paraguay (+350) and Australia (+750), and they’re 60-1 at the Westgate to win the World Cup.

Mexico is an even-money favorite to win Group A over South Korea (+350) and South Africa (16-1), and they’re 60-1 to win the World Cup.

““I think the (U.S. men’s national soccer team) has reason to be optimistic about a good run in this tournament,” Bickerdike said. “They have performed well in their most recent friendlies under Mauricio Pochettino, with the 5-1 victory over Marcelo Bielsa’s Uruguay (on Nov. 18) being particularly impressive. In addition, they have reached the Round of 16 in three of the last four World Cups. Receiving a favorable draw will now only enhance their chances of reaching the latter stages of the tournament.

“In terms of at the counter, we fully expect the USA to be a popular selection in all betting markets. They are the team we have seen the most wagers on in the tournament winner market, and have already seen a flurry of bets on them to top Group D.”

Favorites

Spain, which won the 2024 European Championship, is the clear 4-1 favorite to win the World Cup.

“They’re getting backed as such,” Sherman said. “They’re No. 1 in ticket count and No. 1 in money wagered.”

England is the 6-1 second choice, and France is the +750 third pick.

“England didn’t use to be this low, but it has been playing better the last few years,” Sherman said. “Them being 6-1 is showing their power rating and where they are in the world right now.

“France is a loaded team. All their players play in the top leagues in Europe, so they’re always going to be there. They’ve got a younger squad.”

Brazil and defending World Cup champion Argentina are 8-1 in what is expected to be the final World Cup appearance for Lionel Messi, who will turn 39 during the tournament. Portugal is 11-1 in what is expected to be the final World Cup appearance for Cristiano Ronaldo, who turns 41 in February.

“Brazil and Argentina are a little bit older teams,” Sherman said. “Portugal, to me, feels better situated than Argentina, even though they have higher odds.”

Germany is 13-1, followed by the Netherlands at 22-1, Norway at 25-1 and Italy at 35-1.

“Generally, the teams that win this are the top eight on the odds board,” Sherman said. “It’s hard to find, going down the list, a team that will win it beyond 20-1.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.