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What to bet on Wednesday, with top pick on MLB (updated)

Updated September 16, 2020 - 12:34 pm

Sports fans get a breather Wednesday. For the first time since July 29, there are no NBA or NHL games on the slate.

That day off comes after a consequential Tuesday in which the Los Angeles Clippers completed their collapse in spectacular fashion and the New York Islanders stayed alive in the Stanley Cup playoffs.

There is a 16-game baseball slate, including a total that a handicapper is targeting (see at bottom).

Here’s the betting menu for Wednesday (odds at the Westgate, updated at 11:50 a.m.):


(Pitchers subject to change)

(Note: xFIP is an advanced stat that is a more accurate measure of a pitcher’s performance than ERA.)

Washington (+160) at Tampa Bay (-170, 9 over -120), 10:10 a.m.

Probable pitchers: Washington’s Austin Voth (RHP, 0-5, 7.99 ERA, 6.21 xFIP) vs. Tampa Bay’s Peter Fairbanks (RHP, 4-3, 3.00 ERA, 4.11 xFIP)

Oakland (+111) at Colorado (-121, 11½ under -115), 12:10 p.m.

Probable pitchers: Oakland’s Mike Fiers (RHP, 5-2, 5.06 ERA, 5.71 xFIP) vs. Colorado’s German Marquez (RHP, 2-5, 4.35 ERA, 3.91 xFIP)

Line movement: Total now juiced to under after being over -115.

Los Angeles Dodgers (-116, 9 over -120) at San Diego (+106), 1:10 p.m.

Probable pitchers: Los Angeles’ Brusdar Graterol (RHP, 0-2, 3.06 ERA, 4.12 xFIP) vs. San Diego’s Adrian Morejon (LHP, 2-0, 2.53 ERA, 1.87 xFIP)

St. Louis (+141) at Milwaukee (-151, 6 under -125), 2:10 p.m. (first game of seven-inning doubleheader)

Probable pitchers: St. Louis’ Adam Wainwright (RHP, 4-1, 2.91 ERA, 4.55 xFIP) vs. Milwaukee’s Brandon Woodruff (RHP, 2-3, 3.40 ERA, 3.55 xFIP)

St. Louis (+145) at Milwaukee (-155, 7), about 5:10 p.m. (second game of seven-inning doubleheader)

Probable pitchers: Undecided vs. Milwaukee’s Brent Suter (LHP, 2-0, 3.52 ERA, 2.17 xFIP)

Note: St. Louis has not declared a starting pitcher yet.

Boston (+130) at Miami (-140, 9 under -115), 3:40 p.m.

Probable pitchers: Boston’s Mike Kickham (LHP, 1-0, 5.00 ERA, 4.36 xFIP) vs. Miami’s Trevor Rogers (LHP, 1-1, 6.50 ERA, 3.98 xFIP)

Pittsburgh (+220) at Cincinnati (-250, 8½ under -115), 3:40 p.m.

Probable pitchers: Pittsburgh’s JT Brubaker (RHP, 1-1, 5.34 ERA, 4.21 xFIP) vs. Cincinnati’s Luis Castillo (RHP, 2-5, 3.44 ERA, 3.11 xFIP)

Line movement: Cincinnati up from -220. Total now juiced to under after being -110.

Toronto (+240) at New York Yankees (-270, 8½ over -120), 4:05 p.m.

Probable pitchers: Toronto’s Tanner Roark (RHP, 2-1, 5.60 ERA, 5.68 xFIP) vs. New York’s Gerrit Cole (RHP, 5-3, 3.20 ERA, 3.43 xFIP)

Line movement: New York up from -260.

New York Mets (-172, 7½ under -115) at Philadelphia (+161), 4 p.m.

Probable pitchers: New York’s Jacob deGrom (RHP, 4-1, 1.67 ERA, 2.44 xFIP) vs. Philadelphia’s Zack Wheeler (RHP, 4-0, 2.47 ERA, 3.80 xFIP)

Line movement: New York up from -150. Total now juiced to under after being -110.

Kansas City (-114, 9 under -120) at Detroit (+104), 4:10 p.m.

Probable pitchers: Kansas City’s Brady Singer (RHP, 2-4, 4.66 ERA, 4.19 xFIP) vs. Detroit’s Tarik Skubal (LHP, 1-2, 7.27 ERA, 5.38 xFIP)

Line movement: Kansas City down from -123.

Atlanta (-176, 10 under -115) at Baltimore (+163), 4:35 p.m.

Probable pitchers: Atlanta’s Cole Hamels (LHP, season debut) vs. Baltimore’s Keegan Akin (LHP, 0-1, 4.61 ERA, 4.97 xFIP)

Line movement: Atlanta up from -165. Total up from 9½ over -120.

Minnesota (+136) at Chicago White Sox (-146, 8½), 5:10 p.m.

Probable pitchers: Minnesota’s Jake Odorizzi (RHP, 0-1, 8.10 ERA, 4.44 xFIP) vs. Chicago’s Lucas Giolito (RHP, 4-2, 3.43 ERA, 3.19 xFIP)

Line movement: Total now -110 after being juiced to over -115.

Texas (+205) at Houston (-230, 9 under -115), 5:10 p.m.

Probable pitchers: Texas’ Kyle Gibson (RHP, 1-5, 6.14 ERA, 4.55 xFIP) vs. Houston’s Lance McCullers Jr. (RHP, 3-2, 5.79 ERA, 4.37 xFIP)

Line movement: Houston down from -240. Total now juiced to under after being over -120.

Cleveland (-113, 8 over -115) at Chicago Cubs (+103), 5:15 p.m.

Probable pitchers: Cleveland’s Aaron Civale (RHP, 3-5, 3.88 ERA, 3.55 xFIP) vs. Chicago’s Jon Lester (LHP, 2-2, 5.05 ERA, 5.05 xFIP)

Line movement: Cleveland down from -120.

Arizona (+185) at Los Angeles Angels (-205, 9 under -120), 6:40 p.m.

Probable pitchers: Arizona’s Caleb Smith (LHP, 0-0, 3.00 ERA, 7.62 xFIP) vs. Los Angeles’ Dylan Bundy (RHP, 5-2, 2.48 ERA, 3.38 xFIP)

Line movement: Los Angeles up from -185.

San Francisco (-149, 9) vs. Seattle (+139), 6:45 p.m. at San Francisco

Probable pitchers: San Francisco’s Drew Smyly (LHP, 0-0, 2.92 ERA, 3.07 xFIP) vs. Seattle’s Ljay Newsome (RHP, 0-0, 3.24 ERA, 3.39 xFIP)

Note: Game was moved from Seattle to San Francisco because of air quality reasons. Seattle still plays as the home team.

What happened Tuesday


Underdogs went 2-0 straight-up and against the spread. Totals split 1-1.

— Miami (+2, +110 ML) outlasted Boston 117-114 in overtime in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. The game went over 209 in regulation (212) before landing on 231. The Celtics led by 12 entering the fourth quarter, but the Heat rallied, capped by back-to-back 3-pointers from Tyler Herro and Jimmy Butler to take a one-point lead. Boston’s Jayson Tatum hit a free throw to force overtime.

The teams continued to trade big shots in the extra period. After Butler’s three-point play gave Miami a 116-114 lead, Tatum went up for a dunk but was blocked spectacularly by Bam Adebayo. After Adebayo made a free throw, Tatum missed a 3 at the buzzer to tie. Miami made 47.1 percent of its shots from the field and 44.4 percent from the 3-point line compared to 44.3 and 35.7 for Boston.

— Denver (+7½, +280) completed one of the most stunning comebacks in NBA playoff history, beating the Los Angeles Clippers 104-89 in Game 7 of their Western Conference semifinal series. The game stayed well under 207½. The Nuggets were 20-1 underdogs in the series after trailing 3-1. William Hill reported a $1,000 bet on Denver at that price that paid $20,000. The Nuggets trailed by double digits in the final three games of the series but won them all, scuttling plans for a Los Angeles showdown in the Western Conference Finals between the Lakers and Clippers.

The Clippers scored only 33 points in the second half of Game 7. They shot 37.8 percent from the field and 25.7 on 3-pointers (9 of 35) for the game. Kawhi Leonard had only 14 points on 6-of-22 shooting, and Paul George was worse (10 points, 4 of 16 from the field, 2 of 11 on 3s). Meanwhile, Jamal Murray scored 40 for the Nuggets, and Nikola Jokic had 16 points, 22 rebounds and 13 assists. The Lakers have been installed as -550 favorites in the Western Conference Finals (Nuggets +425).


— The New York Islanders (+140) stayed alive with a 2-1 double-overtime victory over Tampa Bay in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Final. The game stayed under 5. The Lightning outshot the Islanders 37-24 but failed to seal a spot in the Stanley Cup Final. Jordan Eberle had the game-winner for New York. Tampa Bay was without center Brayden Point; his status for Game 6 on Thursday in uncertain.


Favorites went 9-5, with Boston scoring the biggest upset (+148 at Miami). Totals went 10-4 to the under.

Hot Corner handicapper selection

Under 7½ Mets-Phillies

Dana Lane (@DanaLaneSports, 6-6, -0.37 units): Zack Wheeler should be plenty rested when he takes the hill for the Phillies against Jacob deGrom and the New York Mets. Wheeler hasn’t pitched since Sept. 7 after tearing his fingernail while pulling his pants up (don’t ask). He brings a sparkling 4-0 record with a 2.47 ERA into this contest against deGrom (4-1, 1.67 ERA). In his career against the Phils, deGrom is 8-1 with a 1.67 ERA.

The Phillies’ lineup has been depleted with the loss of Jay Bruce, Rhys Hoskins and J.T. Realmuto. It will be difficult for the current lineup to scratch out enough runs to push this game over the total.

Contact Jim Barnes at jbarnes@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0277. Follow @JimBarnesLV on Twitter.

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