The biggest prop betting day of the year produced perhaps the worst prop bad beat of all time.
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes took three deep kneeldowns on the final drive of a 31-20 victory over the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LIV on Sunday in Miami Gardens, Florida.
That loss of 15 yards turned those who bet on him to run for more than his prop total from winners to losers when his final number went from 44 to 29 yards. (The line was 30½ to 36½ at various sportsbooks.)
Mahomes also went under his passing yards total of 304½ with 286 yards, but he still claimed the MVP award to go along with his first championship.
Here’s how the prop bets unfolded throughout the game (using lines from the Westgate):
3:35 p.m. PST: The first winner of the day was tails on the coin flip (-102).
3:42 p.m.: The first play was a 7-yard run by Chiefs running back Damien Williams, cashing the prop that his first rush would be over 3½ yards (+110 odds).
3:45 p.m.: The 49ers got the ball, and running back Tevin Coleman lost a yard on first down (first carry under 3½ yards).
3:53 p.m.: Robbie Gould made a 38-yard field goal, and the 49ers took a 3-0 lead with 7:57 left in the first quarter. No score in the first 6½ minutes cashed at +110. The 49ers to score first cashes at -110.
4:10 p.m.: A lot of first drama on the “who will score the first touchdown” prop. First Williams was stopped at the 1, then Darwin Thompson. Finally, Mahomes slipped in and put the Chiefs on top 7-3 with 31 seconds left in the first quarter. Mahomes was 14-1 to score the first TD. Williams was 6-1, Thompson 30-1. Mahomes was +290 to score a touchdown. Also, the shortest TD will be under 1½ yards cashes at -180.
4:20 p.m.: Chiefs cornerback Bashaud Breeland intercepted 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. He was +550 to get an interception. Garoppolo was +190 to throw an interception before he threw a TD pass.
4:30 p.m.: Harrison Butker kicked a 31-yard field goal and put the Chiefs in front 10-3 with 9:32 left in the second quarter. A team will kick a field goal in the second quarter cashes at -300.
4:34 p.m.: 49ers running back Raheem Mostert, who had 220 yards and four TDs in the NFC Championship Game, finally got his first carry. He finished with 12 carries for 58 yards, going under his respective totals of 15½ and 72½.
4:38 p.m.: Kyle Juszczyk bulled into the end zone on a 15-yard pass, and the 49ers tied the game at 10 with 5:05 left in the second quarter. He was 20-1 to score the 49ers’ first TD.
5:01 p.m.: A long completion to 49ers tight end George Kittle got called back for offensive pass interference, killing a drive right before halftime. No score in the final two minutes of the first half cashes at +280.
5:42 p.m.: Gould made a 42-yard field goal and put the 49ers on top 13-10 with 9:29 left in the third quarter. It turned out to be the final field goal of the game, making under 3½ field goals (-140) a winner.
5:51 p.m.: 49ers linebacker Fred Warner intercepted Mahomes with 5:23 left in the third quarter. Mahomes was +280 to throw an interception before throwing a touchdown pass.
5:58 p.m.: Mostert scored from a yard out, and the 49ers took a 20-10 lead with 2:35 left in the third quarter. Mostert was -160 to score a TD. A team will score three straight times cashes at -170.
6:14 p.m.: Mahomes was intercepted again, and the 49ers were in total control, up 20-10 with 11:57 to go. Mahomes’ passing props are in trouble, but he has eased over his rushing yards prop, with 38 so far.
6:34 p.m.: Mahomes hit tight end Travis Kelce for a 1-yard TD pass, and the 49ers lead 20-17 with 6:13 to go. Kelce will score a TD cashes at -110.
6:41 p.m.: What a shift. The Chiefs forced a three-and-out and mounted a drive, and Williams got inside the pylon on a 5-yard TD pass, putting the Chiefs up 24-20 with 2:44 to go. Williams was -140 to score a TD. There will be a lead change in the fourth quarter cashes at +230.
7 p.m.: The Chiefs got a stop with 1:25 left, and Williams motored to the end zone from 38 yards out with 1:12 to go to give Kansas City a 31-20 lead. He had already surpassed his props and finished with 17 carries for 104 yards, going well over his totals of 13½ and 51½.
7:07 p.m.: Garoppolo threw his second interception of the game, and the Chiefs were going to be Super Bowl champs. Garoppolo ended up under his yardage prop (239½) with 219.
7:08 p.m.: The 49ers had two timeouts, so the Chiefs couldn’t quite run out the clock. Mahomes moved deeper on his first kneeldown and lost five yards. Timeout, San Francisco. Mahomes made another deep kneeldown and lost three yards, and the 49ers took their final timeout. Mahomes’ rushing total then sat at 36, still over for most bettors.
In an attempt to run more clock, Mahomes took an even deeper kneeldown on third down, losing seven yards and making everyone who took the over on Mahomes’ rushing yards a loser. On fourth down with five seconds left, Mahomes rolls out and throws a deep ball to the sideline to run out the clock.
7:10 p.m.: Final: Chiefs 31, 49ers 20. Mahomes was named the MVP, and he was the +125 favorite to do so.
And everyone who bet the over on his rushing total had a bad beat story to tell forever.