Saints aren’t unlucky, they’re just not good enough

The Saints and their fans would lead you to believe, one way or another, that they’re just unlucky. Or even worse, the victim of some sort of officiating conspiracy.

But there’s a reason they keep score in football, because that’s the ultimate decider. And in the case of the New Orleans Saints the past three seasons, they have been the ultimate pretender. They look like world-beaters in the regular season, but get exposed, at some point, in the postseason because they run into a team that’s physically and mentally tougher, and just flat-out makes more plays.

Sunday’s 26-20 overtime loss to the Minnesota Vikings was just the latest example.

Don’t buy into all that talk about how offensive pass interference should have been called on Minnesota’s Kyle Rudolph for extending an arm against Saints cornerback P.J. Williams.

Forget about all the other plays the Saints came up short on — including Drew Brees’ interception and fumble earlier, or the 94 rushing yards and two touchdowns they allowed to Vikings running back Dalvin Cook — you knew the Vikings were winning that game, even if they had to kick a field goal there. They dominated that game. They deserved to win because they were the better team.

Just as it was the previous two seasons.

For three years in a row, the Saints have won the NFC South with records of 11-5, 13-3 and 13-3. In each of those seasons, they owned impressive point differentials of at least 117 points.

But in the postseason, they flamed out.

In 2017, it was the Minneapolis Miracle on the final play of the game that snatched defeat from victory. It had to be that, and not Brees’ two interceptions and his pedestrian 89.0 QB rating. Or how the Saints failed on a third-and-1 with 33 seconds left that would have allowed them to leave no time on the clock.

The NFL changed its replay rules because the Saints were so aggrieved in the 2019 NFC Championship Game loss that Rams cornerback Nickell Robey-Coleman wasn’t called for pass interference against Tommylee Lewis.

Sure, that call could have iced the game. New Orleans also could have not allowed the Rams to advance 45 yards in nine plays for the game-tying field goal. Or Brees and his 88.4 rating could not have thrown an interception on the first drive of overtime to set up the Rams’ game-winning kick.

But you probably didn’t and won’t hear any of that. The Saints were wronged again, or just unlucky.

Actually, they just haven’t been good enough, haven’t finished the game as well as their opponents. And that’s why they’re out early again, three years running.

After the Seahawks defeated the Eagles 17-9 in Sunday’s other wild-card game, the divisional matchups are set. So here’s an early read on the games ranked in order from best to worst:

Seahawks at Packers (-4), 3:40 p.m. Sunday

There’s great postseason history here between these teams, including the 2003 overtime pick-six won by the Packers and the 2014 NFC Championship Game when the Packers blew a 12-point lead after failing to field an onsides kick.

This could be a game where Seahawks QB Russell Wilson is running for his life more than usual behind a struggling offensive line. Preston Smith, Za’Darius Smith and Kenny Clark have 210 quarterback pressures combined.

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers hasn’t won a playoff game since 2016, but he owns a career postseason passer rating of 99.4 with 36 touchdowns against 10 interceptions.

Titans at Ravens (-9.5), 5:15 p.m. Saturday

Don’t sleep on Tennessee pulling a major upset here. They just knocked off the Patriots and beat the Chiefs 35-32 in Week 10. They have enough on offense with battering ram Derrick Henry to shorten the game and keep Ravens QB Lamar Jackson off the field, and enough speed on defense to slow down the likely league MVP.

The Ravens (3,296) and Titans (2,223) finished the season No. 1 and 3 in rushing yards.

Titans QB Ryan Tannehill is going to have to do much better than 72 yards he threw for on Saturday night against New England.

Vikings at 49ers (-6.5), 1:35 p.m. Saturday

Another game with two really good rushing offenses will likely be played at a slower pace, but the 49ers’ defense should have the edge in this one. Not only can Nick Bosa get after the quarterback, but Dee Ford may be back from injury as well.

Vikings QB Kirk Cousins is going to have to duplicate the sterling performance he had on Sunday in New Orleans.

No. 6 seeds like Minnesota have lost eight straight divisional games and are 5-19 since 1990 in this round.

Texans at Chiefs (-9.5), 12:05 p.m. Sunday

Houston beat the Chiefs in Kansas City 31-24 way back in Week 6, but that was Patrick Mahomes’ last week playing on a bad ankle before Matt Moore took over in the next game. It was a sloppy game in which 21 penalties were called and many more were overruled or declined.

The Chiefs led 17-3 before the Texans, missing cornerback Jonathan Joseph and receiver Kenny Stills, staged their comeback. Houston held Kansas City to just seven second-half points as Deshaun Watson outdueled Mahomes.

Greg A. Bedard covers the NFL for the Review-Journal. He can be reached at gbedard@reviewjournal.com. Follow @GregABedard on Twitter.