Guenther’s the fall guy but shares blame with Raiders management

My hand is raised. I was dead wrong.

I believed there was, as Paul Guenther called them, enough silver and black draft seeds from which to build a defense. That the Raiders had smartly rolled the dice in free agency.

That once things had been torn down to the studs those first two seasons and attention — not to mention money — was finally devoted to that side of the ball, the team just might begin moving itself off the wrong side of defensive analytics and those poor results created by them.

Guenther is out of a job today. Things didn’t move nearly fast enough to save him.

Never one thing

He was fired as defensive coordinator following a 44-27 loss to the Colts on Sunday, a predictable move for a team that has struggled mightily on defense since Jon Gruden was named head coach in 2018 and one that couldn’t stop air the last few weeks.

It’s never about one man, one area. Just as Guenther is hardly the lone reason for shoddy defensive play, it would be silly not to acknowledge the number of injuries and COVID-19 issues that have again led to the Raiders being unable to stop people.

But this is also the business of sport. Someone eventually pays for substandard results, and it certainly wasn’t going to be the offensive-minded head coach who signed a 10-year contract.

“It’s a very tough decision,” Gruden said. “Paul is a great friend and a great coach. He has given great effort here. We need a new voice right now. I think it will help Paul in the long run probably, getting away from me. We need a new voice. I think we need a new energy.”

It will come from defensive line coach Rod Marinelli, elevated to the coordinator’s role through the season’s final three games and any postseason life the Raiders might still earn. Marinelli has been there, done that, having held both NFL head coach and coordinator titles.

More than anything, to this point, firing Guenther speaks to a failure in evaluation by Gruden and general manager Mike Mayock. Guenther unquestionably could have done a better job getting more out of underachieving players, but those handed him have hardly held up their end.

The Raiders signed defensive end Carl Nassib to a three-year deal for $25 million ($17 million guaranteed). He is struggling to the point of being a healthy scratch the last few weeks. Cory Littleton and his Pro Football Focus rating of 76 out of 85 eligible linebackers places him among the league’s most disappointing free-agent signings at three years for $35.3 million.

They talked all summer about what a major difference Maliek Collins would make along the front. He rates 124 out of 126 eligible linemen and has been placed on injured reserve.

Johnathan Abram is a second-year safety who right now hurts the Raiders more than helps them and yet still plays nearly every snap when healthy. Damon Arnette is a first-round rookie cornerback who can’t stay healthy and hasn’t been very capable when on the field.

The Raiders drafted linebacker Tanner Muse, immediately said he was more a special teams player and placed him on IR a week before the season opener.

It’s true Clelin Ferrell is better this season than he was as a rookie last year, that free-agent linebacker Nick Kwiatkoski is enjoying a fine season, that names like Nicholas Morrow and Maurice Hurst and Jeff Heath have offered solid play in spots. But the margin between good and bad right now is vast.

And the bad is really bad.

A bigger picture

“We like our young team, I want to reiterate that,” Gruden said. “We do have some veteran players that we’re excited about. We have to put it all together. And it goes on me right now to get that done. It’s my responsibility.”

Everything is. Head coach is just that. Head coach of offense, defense, special teams. The Raiders aren’t that young, not with some of those names mentioned above having been brought to Las Vegas as supposedly ones who would turn the tide of a traditionally dire defense.

It hasn’t yet happened. I was dead wrong. Thought they would be much better.

Guenther is gone and that’s hardly a surprise. He didn’t do a good enough job to keep his. But moves like these most often illuminate a much bigger picture.

And within this particular frame is a more obvious need for better evaluation of talent.

That’s not on Guenther.

That’s on his bosses.

Ed Graney is a Sigma Delta Chi Award winner for sports column writing and can be reached at egraney@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-4618. He can be heard on “The Press Box,” ESPN Radio 100.9 FM and 1100 AM, from 7 a.m. to 10 a.m. Monday through Friday. Follow @edgraney on Twitter.