Updated March 10, 2022 - 10:31 am
Sportsbooks shuffled their Super Bowl odds Tuesday after reports that Aaron Rodgers will return to Green Bay and Seattle will trade Russell Wilson to Denver.
Not surprisingly, books slashed odds on the Packers and Broncos, while the Seahawks’ odds soared.
Besides Seattle, which skyrocketed from 40-1 to 200-1 at the Westgate SuperBook, the Raiders’ NFL title odds took the biggest hit, shooting up from 40-1 to 80-1.
“Out of all of it, the biggest loser is the Raiders,” SuperBook oddsmaker Ed Salmons said. “That’s a tough pill for the Raiders. They’re going to be a distant fourth in odds to win the division.
“Their road to the playoffs looks pretty tough now. They’re going to have to be a lot better than they were last year.”
Las Vegas went 10-7 last season, placed second in the AFC West and made the playoffs, losing a wild-card game to the Cincinnati Bengals.
Raiders long shot in division
The Raiders are the 10-1 fourth pick at Caesars Sportsbook to win the AFC West, which features three of the top eight Super Bowl contenders in the Chiefs (8-1), Broncos (14-1) and Chargers (18-1).
Kansas City is the -115 favorite to win the division, followed by Denver at +240 and the Chargers at +425.
“Clearly, the AFC West is the toughest division in football,” Circa sportsbook oddsmaker Chris Bennett said.
The Broncos dropped from 30-1 to 14-1 to win the Super Bowl and moved to the 7-1 third pick to win the AFC behind Buffalo (+350) and Kansas City (4-1).
“It makes the Broncos a contender, but it’s still going to be really tough with Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert in the same division,” Bennett said. “And they traded away their top tight end and some draft picks.”
Before Caesars lowered Denver to 14-1, a bettor in Nevada placed a $5,000 wager Tuesday to win $85,000 on the Broncos at 17-1.
“The change in odds is reflective of the hype,” Caesars Sportsbook assistant director of trading Adam Pullen said. “I don’t think anyone is getting a bargain with the Broncos at their current number. But the price has been mandated by the bets coming in.
“The Broncos have a great defense, so it’s not like Wilson’s going to have to win games single-handedly.”
NFL MVP odds
Wilson’s NFL MVP odds dropped from 30-1 to 14-1 at Caesars, where he’s the fifth choice behind +750 co-favorites Rodgers and Mahomes, Josh Allen (8-1) and Joe Burrow (12-1).
“He’s one of the more popular players in the league,” Pullen said. “And if he leads the Broncos to an AFC West title, he’s going to be a strong contender for MVP.”
Station Casinos posted an over-under prop on Wilson’s touchdown passes at 36½.
“Wilson averaged 35 TDs his last four full seasons with Seattle, excluding last year when he missed games,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “Plus, he’s leaving the run-first approach of Pete Carroll, and we now have the 17th week.”
Green Bay dipped from 12-1 to a 7-1 co-favorite with Buffalo at the SuperBook and Circa to win the Super Bowl.
“We view the Bills and the Packers as the two best teams in each conference,” Salmons said. “The Packers will probably have the easiest road to win the division of any team in the league.”
Wentz and Watson
Washington acquired quarterback Carson Wentz from the Indianapolis Colts on Wednesday, causing WynnBET to raise the Commanders’ odds to win the Super Bowl from 60-1 to 75-1.
But the trade didn’t move the needle at the Westgate, where Washington stayed at 60-1.
“The correct thing to do there is either no move or move up because it was priced in that they may get a better QB in the offseason,” SuperBook director John Murray said.
Houston’s Deshaun Watson is the biggest quarterback domino yet to fall.
“He’s the last guy that can really affect the odds the way it happened (Tuesday),” Salmons said. “If you put Watson on any team 100-1 or less, he can instantly make them 20-1 or less.”
Super Bowl LVII odds
At Westgate SuperBook