Intangibles make Las Vegas competitive for NFL franchise, analysts say

Stack up the statistics of a traditional market study, like NFL owners are doing as they consider the Oakland Raiders’ prospective relocation, and Las Vegas wouldn’t stand a chance against the positives offered by the San Francisco Bay area.

By population, the San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward area ranks 11th with 4.7 million people compared with Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise at 29th with 2.1 million.

By median household income, the Oakland area is fourth at $38,355 compared with Las Vegas — which also includes Mohave County, Arizona — at 84th and $21,210. Tech-job salaries in nearby Silicon Valley tower over Southern Nevada’s dominant service economy.

As a media market, San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose stands at No. 6 while Las Vegas is at No. 40.

So what makes Las Vegas and the Raiders ownership think they can convince 23 of the league’s other 32 owners that a move to a new $1.9 billion, 65,000-seat domed stadium just off the Strip would be in their best interests?

In short, it’s the intangibles that Las Vegas can offer, marketing experts say. Just as the team with the best quarterback, the best wide receivers and the best running backs don’t always win the Super Bowl, there are other considerations that would have to be emphasized if the team and the stadium developers have a chance at convincing owners to make a move.

It became evident last week after league meetings in Irving, Texas, that some of Las Vegas’ intangibles are coming to light.

SUPPORT FROM GOODELL

In a quote that had most Las Vegans doing a double-take, NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell showed some support for the city.

“There are some real strengths to the Las Vegas market,” Goodell said in a press conference. “It’s clear the Las Vegas market has become more diversified and more broadly involved with entertainment and hitting big events. There is a growth to the market. You can see the trajectory and where it’s going when you look at the data. There were some very positive things about it.”

Jeremy Aguero of Applied Analysis, the Las Vegas-based firm that provided statistical support to the Southern Nevada Tourism Infrastructure Committee as it prepared a report to Gov. Brian Sandoval on why it made economic sense to commit $750 million in public funding to build a stadium, said it’s easy to understand why the city’s attributes don’t stand out.

“From a statistical standpoint, Las Vegas has a tendency to be wildly misunderstood,” Aguero said, “because there’s no place like it.”

He said traditional market studies aren’t going to show factors that only locals seems to understand.

“Any analyst worth his salt will tell you that what a data point tells you is far less important than what it doesn’t,” Aguero said. “You always have to be looking for elements that most people aren’t thinking about because any one of those data points could be a potential red flag. And, it’s incumbent upon the Raiders and the Adelson family to explain it (to owners) because it isn’t a part of the calculus.”

A UNLV marketing professor says it would be shortsighted for the team not to look beyond Las Vegas for ticket sales.

“The Raiders situation is unique because they figure on getting Raiders fans who followed the team in Los Angeles that can drive to the game and they might also get fans from Oakland who are willing to travel for games,” said associate professor Jim Cross. “It’s not like you’re putting a team in St. Louis where you’re not going to have people coming in from out of town.”

As a leading resort destination, Las Vegas also has the advantage of being a desirable place for a leisure trip in addition to being the site of a game where out-of-town fans can see their teams play.

While Oakland possesses several attributes that market studies would say are positives, Cross pointed out that the Raiders aren’t the only NFL team in town.

SIMILARITIES TO NASHVILLE

The Raiders’ local rivals, the San Francisco 49ers, recently moved into the new high-tech Levi’s Stadium in nearby Santa Clara.

“I think a better analogy to Las Vegas may be someplace like Nashville. Nashville is actually a smaller town than Las Vegas. They’ve got NHL hockey and they’ve got NFL football and I think the current population is around 2 million,” Cross said.

Nashville’s team, the Tennessee Titans, relocated from Houston where support for the team was waning.

“They probably don’t get near the number of people traveling there (to Nashville) to see games as we would,” Cross said. “There are closet fans that are in Los Angeles because the Raiders were there for 12 years. They could even buy season tickets and drive to Las Vegas. It’s only eight games a year..”

THE 24-HOUR APPEAL

Aguero concurred that because Las Vegas dramatically expands beyond its population base every weekend, traditional market studies are incomplete.

“There are other factors that could figure into this (Las Vegas’ potential success or failure),” Aguero said.

“It’s a 24-hour town, so one-third of our people may be working at any given time. There are a lot of other entertainment opportunities. How is our economy evolving? We’re becoming more diverse, so that’s a good thing.“

Aguero acknowledged that as a market, Las Vegas has weaknesses.

“Sure, we have weaknesses. So does Oakland. So does New York.

“I think the bottom line to the owners is that they want the Raiders franchise to be successful and that’s how they’ll vote,” he said.

Aguero said he has not been asked to appear before owners when they meet in January.

“But,” he said, “they’ve already asked us a bunch of questions.”

The Review-Journal is owned by the family of Las Vegas Sands Corp. Chairman and CEO Sheldon Adelson, which is contributing $650 million to building the new stadium.

Contact Richard N. Velotta at rvelotta@reviewjournal.com or 702-477-3893. Follow @RickVelotta on Twitter.