Donald Trump closes gap on Joe Biden in presidential election odds
Donald Trump closed the gap on Joe Biden in 2020 U.S. presidential election betting odds following the final night of the Republican National Convention.
Biden, the Democratic presidential nominee, entered Thursday as the -130 favorite over President Trump (+113) at Pinnacle Sports. But the offshore sportsbook lowered Biden to -118 and bumped Trump to +101 after the president delivered his nomination acceptance speech Thursday night from the South Lawn at the White House.
The election odds tightened to a virtual pick’em at London-based Betfair Exchange, which lowered Biden to -105 and moved Trump to +105 in what the book called in a release the “biggest convention comeback in political betting history.”
Trump’s implied probability of victory improved from 41 percent to 49 percent at Betfair during the Democratic and Republican conventions. The 8 percent improvement was the largest during the convention period of any candidate since election trading began on Betfair Exchange in 2004.
Biden’s odds are his longest since May and his chances of winning the election are down to 51 percent from a peak of 61 percent on Aug. 1.
U.S. sportsbooks aren’t allowed to take bets on the election. But South Point oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro has been making odds for entertainment purposes only.
He opened the line at pick’em in late April and bumped Biden up to a -135 favorite over Trump (+115) after the DNC.
Vaccaro, 74, moved his line back to pick’em Friday after money showed on Trump over night in global markets.
“I even saw some places that had Donald a small favorite,” he said. “This thing is so contentious. When we get closer (to the November 3 election), we might see them switching odds every day.
“It’s like the Lakers and LeBron (James). If they play good one night, you jack up the line a point the next night. If money comes the other way, you reduce it.”
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.
