Large point spread shouldn’t keep Appalachian State from covering
Appalachian State is the second-largest bowl game favorite out of 40 games, including the College Football Playoff.
Mountaineers coach Eli Drinkwitz left for Missouri along with three assistant coaches.
This is the program’s second consecutive trip to the New Orleans Bowl.
The team lost to rival Georgia Southern in some of the strongest winds of the regular season. Appalachian State (12-1) otherwise would have been in the New Year’s Six conversation.
After the second coaching change in two years, new coach Shawn Clark (formerly the offensive line coach) had to worry about the early signing period days before the game with a depleted staff.
It sounds like a classic fade spot. But it has taken all those factors to keep the line under 17 points.
Alabama-Birmingham coach Bill Clark pulled a minor miracle getting the Blazers back to the Conference USA championship game.
But a strong defense no longer can support a lifeless offense. Since Week 10, UAB lost 30-7, 37-2 and 49-6 against teams I have power-rated lower than Appalachian State.
Take the Mountaineers minus 16½ on Saturday.
Four more plays:
Marshall (+17½) over Central Florida, Monday, Gasparilla Bowl: The Knights are better in almost every statistical category. At No. 14 in SP+, there’s an argument this is the best version of Central Florida. But it can’t be excited about playing Marshall after facing Louisiana State and Auburn in bowls the past two seasons. It sounds as if No. 1 wide receiver Gabriel Davis might sit. Central Florida offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby has joined Lane Kiffin at Mississippi. There’s a chance of significant wind, which hurts the Knights. Marshall coach Doc Holliday is 6-0 straight up and against the spread in bowl games, covering by an average of 11 points.
Louisiana Tech (+6½) over Miami, Thursday, Independence Bowl: Shreveport is a one-hour drive from the Bulldogs’ campus. This feels like a punishment for the Hurricanes after a disappointing season. Miami also could be playing without its best receiver (Jeff Thomas), the team leader in receiving yards (tight end Brevin Jordan) and its top two rushers (DeeJay Dallas, Cam’Ron Harris). Skip Holtz is 7-3 ATS in bowls, and Manny Diaz is a first-time head coach.
Eastern Michigan (+11) over Pittsburgh, Thursday, Quick Lane Bowl: The Panthers could be without their top two receivers (Maurice Ffrench and Taysir Mack) and second-leading rusher (Todd Sibley Jr.). Eastern Michigan has won one bowl game, in 1987. This is Eastern Michigan coach Chris Creighton’s third bowl, and he’s still looking for his first win. Eastern Michigan is 23-6-1 ATS as an underdog since the 2015 regular season. I like the under in this game, and I think that’s also correlated with an Eastern Michigan cover.
Oklahoma State (+7) over Texas A&M, Friday, Texas Bowl: The Aggies lost to the SP+ Nos. 2, 3, 4, 5 and 10 teams, part of the reason Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy called them the “best 7-5 team” in history. But Texas A&M also has zero top 40 wins. Oklahoma State beat SP+ No. 23 Iowa State and No. 38 Texas Christian, but lost to SP+ No. 51 Texas Tech.
Oklahoma State quarterback Spencer Sanders has returned to practice and could provide a real boost. Texas A&M defensive tackle Justin Madubike is sitting out the game, which isn’t ideal as the Aggies try to contain running back Chuba Hubbard. In the passing game, Oklahoma State is stronger on offense. Jimbo Fisher and Texas A&M face more pressure, while Oklahoma State should play loose.
Last week: 4-1 ATS
Season: 40-27-3
More Betting: Follow at reviewjournal.com/betting
Christopher Smith of AL.com, NOLA.com and MyBookie is providing college football analysis for the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Follow @cfblocksmith on Twitter.
